Recent posts

#21

Off the Record / Re: Finland, Sweden + NATO

Last post by Jacob - May 15, 2022, 06:35:19 PM

The stuff about Baltic subs is nonsense.  The Baltic Fleet has one Kilo class submarine for ASW training and zero combat subs.

Oh.

Well thanks for clearing that up

#22

Off the Record / Re: Finland, Sweden + NATO

Last post by grumbler - May 15, 2022, 06:33:16 PM

Two fun little Twitter threads on Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1525959053490458624?t=DC7Siv7dfhYbbABpnjeP4Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1525922514173673472?t=hdwZ7Yfzg2qjS8dqfxCxRQ&s=19

... not ideal from a Russian perspective.

The stuff about Baltic subs is nonsense.  The Baltic Fleet has one Kilo class submarine for ASW training and zero combat subs.

#23

Off the Record / Re: Finland, Sweden + NATO

Last post by Jacob - May 15, 2022, 05:57:36 PM

Two fun little Twitter threads on Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1525959053490458624?t=DC7Siv7dfhYbbABpnjeP4Q&s=19

https://twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1525922514173673472?t=hdwZ7Yfzg2qjS8dqfxCxRQ&s=19

... not ideal from a Russian perspective.

#24

Off the Record / Re: Extreme intoxication is no...

Last post by grumbler - May 15, 2022, 05:36:22 PM

Is your issue then with the entire concept of mens rea?

I think it's often applied in an unsound way.

But that's an objection that5 could be levelled at pretty much anything.

I think thinking is often applied in an unsound way.
I think gravity is often applied in an unsound way.
I think language is often applied in an unsound way.
etc

#25

Off the Record / Re: Extreme intoxication is no...

Last post by The Brain - May 15, 2022, 04:53:30 PM

If the person didn't perform the acts, then who did?

I know that the idea that a person is only their highest order reasoning ego, and not the whole human, is common in law, but it's ridiculous and unsound.

Is your issue then with the entire concept of mens rea?

I think it's often applied in an unsound way.

#26

Off the Record / Re: Extreme intoxication is no...

Last post by DGuller - May 15, 2022, 04:40:03 PM

If the person didn't perform the acts, then who did?

I know that the idea that a person is only their highest order reasoning ego, and not the whole human, is common in law, but it's ridiculous and unsound.

Is your issue then with the entire concept of mens rea?

#27

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by grumbler - May 15, 2022, 04:26:46 PM

Xi has always seemed to me to be reaching for things that the CCP's post-Mao leadership has instinctively avoided: supreme power vested in one man who cannot be held accountable because he makes himself president-for-life; an aggressive foreign policy that seeks to overturn the current world order that has brought China so much prosperity (maybe giving China hegemonic power, but maybe just breaking everything that allows China to succeed); spending money on arms rather than infrastructure; and a cult of personality.

I don't think that the "contented China" of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao is still in the cards, as the Chinese populace has gotten used to a foreign policy of belligerent arrogance and assertiveness, but I think that it can go back to being a country whose actions (not words) support a world order that doesn't let China claim to be top dog, but does allow China to prosper.

China is today's Imperial Germany and Xi is today's Kaiser Wilhelm II.  The world can successfully deal either of those, but not both together.

#28

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Sheilbh - May 15, 2022, 03:25:05 PM

I think the June 4th movement, the HK pro-democracy movement, and the phases of liberalization in thought and economics represented movement in a positive direction. But until China accepts pluralism, any movement in a positive direction can be washed away in an instant.

Fair points. I was not meaning wider Chinese society never going in a positive direction - rather the state.

The question, of course, is also what is meant by "a positive direction". Positive for the world economy and standards of living? Positive for the Chinese people to not be oppressed? Positive for non-Han populations inside China to not be forcefully assimilated? Positive for China's neighbours?

Quite. I still think the vast majority of the legitimacy the PRC has is because of their role (mostly mythologised) in national liberation, then subsequently (more real) economic growth transforming the lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese and lately Chinese assertiveness - and the initial success of covid zero in China pre-vaccines.

Those are big things that for many was, I imagine, enough of a positive direction for support or quiescence. But China was never going to move to anything that remotely challenged or threatened the supremacy of the party. Instead, as China grows richer and more powerful, the role of the party would probably have to grow. For example, it would not want to be at the behest of oligarchs or, say, technocrats who are not properly in line with the party.

As long as the party-state is the model I don't see China deviating from that. And, for what it's worth, I think Soviet history is incredibly contingent on Gorbachev's failures as a leader - he was too idealistic, too naive and not very competent. So it's less whether China will eventually appoint a Gorbachev who will open them up, but whether they will appoint a bad leader and the party have so little left to remove them before it all falls apart. I'm not optimistic on that either.

But yeah, given the choice of what Bo Xilai promised and what Xi Jinping delivered neither can be seen as movement in a positive direction, so that was a choice between two bad directions. Hu Jintao was, comparatively, less malign IMO.

I agree on Hu. What I'm unsure of is how much is that because the party wanted that less malign model - or because they didn't feel in a position to assert a more forceful position as they were leaving the leadership generations at least partialy mapped by Deng.

My instinct is that it's becuase China wasn't in a position to take the sort of direction Bo and Xi would - both internationally, but also just in terms of tech and research. I think the direction reflects the party leadership's sense of China's strength rather than actually being a shift. But again that is basically just a guess and I could be totally wrong.

#29

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 15, 2022, 03:10:11 PM

Sharing a flat for your whole 20s is pretty normal all over the country I'd say. Not too many people who rent flats by themselves.
Not massively uncommon in your 30s even. Though by then it's been cut a lot by people buying and people in couples.

Yeah agreed. And I shared a flat into my 30s. I think her comment was she'd be doing for her thirties - all of them. Which is not great and at a certain point you don't want to deal with flatmates anymore.

#30

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - May 15, 2022, 03:09:05 PM

Then I'd say that's a specific Oxbridge issue.

It is - a bit. I think I read similar issues with San Francisco and I imagine there are other similar hubs around the world.

They're two really good research universities, that have spawned in recent years a number of really successful innovative life sciences and tech companies. And they're really close together - we should be looking at agglomeration and how they can continue to grow so they can do more good research, but also it would have huge economic benefits.

The government cancelled OxCam Arc which was about linking them with Milton Keynes in the middles - lots of new space for labs, offices, light industry, housing plus vastly improved public transport links. Admittedly this is from the backers of the project but they estimated it would contribute 3% of GDP over the next couple of decades (for context, the BofE's estimate is that Brexit will knock off 4% of GDP over the next couple of decades) - but we're not doing it anymore. And I think that 3% could just be a start if we allowed it to become a proper metro-area. Plus what we should want is for them to continue to be incredible research universities attracting the best because there's a decent standard of living - as well as the work - rather than just becoming a finishing school that no-one without existing wealth can afford to live in.

It is just an Oxbridge issue - but it's also symptomatic of broader issues around growth and building and infrastructure that we have in this country.