Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Sheilbh]

Several days ago the PA spokeperson said they will absolutely not take over the management of Gaza without some international guarantees for a long term plan for Palestine. Which I understand to a big degree, but on the other hand is a bit of a dick move since they want the whole world to feel sympathy for their own people, while they say "F it I ain't helping them unless I get what I want".

I think they literally couldn't and would just be forced out again by Hamas like in the Gaza civil war. And also it speaks to the dual position of Israel under Netanyahu. The PA has been hugely undermined in the West Bank where it rules, as a blind eye was turned to settlers and settler violence (I mean we're seeing fights between radical settlers and IDF troops right now in the middle of a war for Israel). Hamas on the other hand were broadly left alone to run Gaza because they'd been "contained". A consequence of that is that the PA is not available as a force that can help in Gaza. It has neither the credibility/legitimacy or the power to do it even if there was the will.

I think this is where the medium/long term points to a two state solution because I think one option for Israel would be to regionalise Gaza and Palestine. If it is part of a broader regional coalition primarily directed against Iran as Saudi has been trying to create with Egypt and the Gulf states then I think it is possible to see those other regional powers helping to secure Palestine against Iran - but there's no way they'd be willing to do it for further occupation or settlement by Israel. And it is more challenging because those countries still have public opinion which is responding, so I think Bahrain have withdrawn their ambassador and closed the Israeli consulate which is the first of the Abraham Accords countries to do that.

Obviously that is not possible with the Israeli far-right in the coalition and with Netanyahu as PM. I think until an Israeli centre is re-created, focused on the national interest and mad up of Likud, Yesh Atid, Blue & White etc it's not possible, the political logic in Israel is preserving one man's (or one family's) power.

And I think that does trap Israel in military action without a long-term strategy of what they're trying to achieve in Gaza. That is a problem because it's really difficult to say x is proportionate because we don't know the military or political obective it is intended to achieve.

[viper37]

I honestly don't know what Raz is talking about.  Jews and Muslims have been killing one another and been intermittently at peace since the arrival of Islam.

I honestly don't know what you are talking about.  Islam and Judaism peacefully co-existed in the Middle East from the founding of Islam to the early 20th Century.  A ew riots and whatnot occurred, for sure, but the peace between the two religions wasn't "intermittent," the violence was.

The Zionist movement created both Jewish nationalism and Palestinian nationalism.  Conflicts over land only strengthened to impact of nationalist chauvinism in both camps.  That's what flavors all relations between them today.

Raz just told me the Jews were second class citizens and were constantly beaten, thrown rocks at.  Accord your tunes.

[viper37]

I honestly don't know what Raz is talking about. 

Clearly.  For centuries Jews were 2nd class citizens in the Arab world.  This is how Palestinians saw them.  When Jews from Europe started arriving (legally purchasing land), they were less inclined to be brow-beaten minority.

There was no such thing as a very distinct Palestinian identity until after WWII.
Even now, most Israelis don't even want to recognize Palestinians as a seperate nation from other Arabs.
As late as Golda Meir the Israeli government official position was to not recognize the Palestinian people as a nation.

As for being 2nd class citizens, this is debatable.  They had dhimi status.  Same legal rights and protection, but special tax.  Occasional pogroms, unfortunately.  It's a large territory and large time span, from Spain to Iraq, as far south as Yemen, even as far east as Pakistan, from the beginning of Muhammad rise to 2023.

EDIT: corrected to include the correct geographical and time reference.

[OttoVonBismarck]

PA is likely the only viable administrator of Gaza and they would need to stand up a police / security force. They could not do this in a vacuum--Gaza would need a permanent IDF military force the same as the West Bank. The only reason the PA can continue to administer the parts of the WB it administers is because the IDF protects it, similar would be needed for Gaza.

That in and of itself is not a viable end state, so things would need to develop from there--so far this hasn't happened in the WB and would be unlikely to happen in Gaza without a change in Israeli policies.

[Threviel]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Some third party, trusted by Israel and accepted by PA needs to go in and back up some kind of sensibleish Palestinian government. IDF can do the security, but they are not acceptable to the Palestinians, so it would be preferable if someone else did it. This presumably needs to be done for decades in concert with anti-corruption work and economic development.

At the same time the settlements have to stop and preferably reverse, it's a mark of shame for Israel that they are allowed to continue.

[Tamas]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Some third party, trusted by Israel and accepted by PA needs to go in and back up some kind of sensibleish Palestinian government. IDF can do the security, but they are not acceptable to the Palestinians, so it would be preferable if someone else did it. This presumably needs to be done for decades in concert with anti-corruption work and economic development.

At the same time the settlements have to stop and preferably reverse, it's a mark of shame for Israel that they are allowed to continue.

Who in their right mind would sign up to have their people police Hamas (or their terrorist successors) while making sure not to end up being cover for either their or the Israelis breaks of whatever truce is agreed?

Let's face it this will either end by the Palestinians in their entirety truly accepting that they are never ever getting the territory of Israel back, or Israel collapsing and its inhabitants butchered and kicked out wholesale.

[Admiral Yi]

Another option would be to hold immediate elections in Gaza.  If Hamas wins the people of Gaza have voted for total war with Israel and it legitimizes virtually anything the Israelis want to do in response.  If the PA wins, that delegitimizes Israeli occupation.

That genocide comment by the UN special raporteur is a massive black mark on the institution itself.  I'm not talking about the various commissions that are peopled by appointees from Sudan or Azerbaijan which Otto has been referring to, but the professional staff.  Anyone working for the UN with a shred of decency should resign in protest.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Some third party, trusted by Israel and accepted by PA needs to go in and back up some kind of sensibleish Palestinian government. IDF can do the security, but they are not acceptable to the Palestinians, so it would be preferable if someone else did it. This presumably needs to be done for decades in concert with anti-corruption work and economic development.

At the same time the settlements have to stop and preferably reverse, it's a mark of shame for Israel that they are allowed to continue.

Who in their right mind would sign up to have their people police Hamas (or their terrorist successors) while making sure not to end up being cover for either their or the Israelis breaks of whatever truce is agreed?

Let's face it this will either end by the Palestinians in their entirety truly accepting that they are never ever getting the territory of Israel back, or Israel collapsing and its inhabitants butchered and kicked out wholesale.

Peacekeeping forces have worked before. Remember the Balkans--and Serbs are basically as low tier humans as Palestinians, and have largely behaved.

[Gups]

Another option would be to hold immediate elections in Gaza.  If Hamas wins the people of Gaza have voted for total war with Israel and it legitimizes virtually anything the Israelis want to do in response.  If the PA wins, that delegitimizes Israeli occupation.

That genocide comment by the UN special raporteur is a massive black mark on the institution itself.  I'm not talking about the various commissions that are peopled by appointees from Sudan or Azerbaijan which Otto has been referring to, but the professional staff.  Anyone working for the UN with a shred of decency should resign in protest.

Who holds the elections?

[Threviel]

That's the point, if it's a fight to the death Israel might as well clear out from the river to the sea and dare anyone to do anything about it.

That's what I hope our politicians would want to stop, full scale ethnic cleansing. And the way to do that is peacekeeping operations. But not from the UN, because they are incompetent and run by the crap nations of the world and very biased against Israel.

[Iormlund]

Another option would be to hold immediate elections in Gaza.  If Hamas wins the people of Gaza have voted for total war with Israel and it legitimizes virtually anything the Israelis want to do in response.  If the PA wins, that delegitimizes Israeli occupation.

I like this one.

As for the long term. I wonder how hard it would be for the IDF to destroy every vehicle currently operating in Gaza (except perhaps a few ambulances monitored by the RC or other trusted third party).
Future raids would be much easier to tackle if Hamas could only advance at a walk.

[Admiral Yi]

Who holds the elections?

The Norwegians. 

[Oexmelin]

Immediate elections in a field of rubble, when there are no options, and a foreign invader is attacking.

[viper37]

Immediate elections in a field of rubble, when there are no options, and a foreign invader is attacking.

It's a recipe for success, assuredly.  And a very realistic proposition.

[viper37]

That's the point, if it's a fight to the death Israel might as well clear out from the river to the sea and dare anyone to do anything about it.

That's what I hope our politicians would want to stop, full scale ethnic cleansing. And the way to do that is peacekeeping operations. But not from the UN, because they are incompetent and run by the crap nations of the world and very biased against Israel.

They're very biased against Israel, Russia, Serbia, Pakistan, Turkey, the United States, Iraq (under Saddam), and so many others...  and yet, it has worked in may instances.

Or maybe, just maybe, some countries aren't the Angels they think they are?  Maybe it's possible that you can be, as a nation, even as an individual, both victim and agressor?