Israel-Hamas War 2023

[The Minsky Moment]

The Biden administration is committed to supporting Israel.  But that doesn't mean they trust this Israeli government.  Nor should they.

It was a big mistake to keep the PM in place after such a disaster; Israel wears big boy democracy pants and could handle the changeover.  At this point it's like retaining Chamberlain through and past 1940.  Aside from the lack of domestic trust, Israel needs a leader who is willing and able to communicate effectively to the outside world.

[Tamas]

The Biden administration is committed to supporting Israel.  But that doesn't mean they trust this Israeli government.  Nor should they.

It was a big mistake to keep the PM in place after such a disaster; Israel wears big boy democracy pants and could handle the changeover.  At this point it's like retaining Chamberlain through and past 1940.  Aside from the lack of domestic trust, Israel needs a leader who is willing and able to communicate effectively to the outside world.

Except Chamberlain did not have prison waiting for him after resigning. My biggest worry in all this is Bibi being in charge. i don't think there's a single person alive with more material interest in keeping hostilities going ad infinitum.

[Sheilbh]

You call it tepid, I call it a measured statement by a country that is invested in maintaining credilbity..

"Some indications...there are efforts...applied in certain scenarios to try...but I don't want to overstate that." Definitely no danger of overstating it

[The Minsky Moment]

Except Chamberlain did not have prison waiting for him after resigning. My biggest worry in all this is Bibi being in charge. i don't think there's a single person alive with more material interest in keeping hostilities going ad infinitum.

All the more reason to force him out.

[crazy canuck]

The Biden administration is committed to supporting Israel.  But that doesn't mean they trust this Israeli government.  Nor should they.

It was a big mistake to keep the PM in place after such a disaster; Israel wears big boy democracy pants and could handle the changeover.  At this point it's like retaining Chamberlain through and past 1940.  Aside from the lack of domestic trust, Israel needs a leader who is willing and able to communicate effectively to the outside world.

Except Chamberlain did not have prison waiting for him after resigning. My biggest worry in all this is Bibi being in charge. i don't think there's a single person alive with more material interest in keeping hostilities going ad infinitum.

You both make excellent points

[Tamas]

Except Chamberlain did not have prison waiting for him after resigning. My biggest worry in all this is Bibi being in charge. i don't think there's a single person alive with more material interest in keeping hostilities going ad infinitum.

All the more reason to force him out.

Absolutely. He may be the second most dangerous person int he world right now, after Putin. He has direct influence over how this clusterfuck will develop, and a calm resolution works actively against his interests I think, with the possible exception of some strategic breakthrough in resolving the Palestinian situation in Israel's benefit, awesome enough to make him survive the inquiries into the failures leading to 7 November.

[The Minsky Moment]

He is nowhere near as powerful as Putin; the two systems of government and their internal dynamics are totally different.

[Tamas]

He is nowhere near as powerful as Putin; the two systems of government and their internal dynamics are totally different.

Hence why he is not first 

[Admiral Yi]

The Biden administration is committed to supporting Israel.  But that doesn't mean they trust this Israeli government.  Nor should they.

It was a big mistake to keep the PM in place after such a disaster; Israel wears big boy democracy pants and could handle the changeover.  At this point it's like retaining Chamberlain through and past 1940.  Aside from the lack of domestic trust, Israel needs a leader who is willing and able to communicate effectively to the outside world.

Disagree.  For one you're talking as if the conspiracy theory that Netanyahu had foreknowledge of the attack and let it proceed to pursue his own nefarious ends is a fact.  Second, a national crisis is not time to look around for scapegoats, it's the time to band together and work your way out of it.  Third, letting Netanyahu's shitty relationship with the Democratic party influence your own decision making only reinforces the narrative of Israel as a US client state, which (a) puts us more on the hook for anything they do and (b) emboldens their enemies by making them appear less able to defend themselves.  The US, on the other hand, has to proceed on the basis of how things actually are, not how we wish they were.

[Jacob]

The argument against Nethanyahu (or one of them) is not (only) that he might have had foreknowledge and let it proceed - but that his whole policy of aggressively pushing into the West Bank on behalf of radical settlers while leaving Gaza under monitored and under defended - is what allowed this to happen in the first place.

[Admiral Yi]

The argument against Nethanyahu (or one of them) is not (only) that he might have had foreknowledge and let it proceed - but that his whole policy of aggressively pushing into the West Bank on behalf of radical settlers while leaving Gaza under monitored and under defended - is what allowed this to happen in the first place.

Right, and this is a decision that the Israeli voting public has given every indication of being comfortable with, and which renouncing at this exact moment would send the signal that the best way to extract further concessions is to behead some more babies.

[The Minsky Moment]

Disagree.  For one you're talking as if the conspiracy theory that Netanyahu had foreknowledge of the attack and let it proceed to pursue his own nefarious ends is a fact.  Second, a national crisis is not time to look around for scapegoats, it's the time to band together and work your way out of it.  Third, letting Netanyahu's shitty relationship with the Democratic party influence your own decision making only reinforces the narrative of Israel as a US client state, which (a) puts us more on the hook for anything they do and (b) emboldens their enemies by making them appear less able to defend themselves.  The US, on the other hand, has to proceed on the basis of how things actually are, not how we wish they were.

In reponse:
1. As Jacob points out above, it is not a conspiracy theory to point out the government's policy of downplaying security risks to Gaza to bolster their settlement policy on the West Bank nor his adherence to the policy of using Hamas to play off and weaken Fatah.  Nor it is conspiracy theory to point out the obvious and glaring fact of a massive intelligence and security failure and the PM's accountability for it.

2.  You are correct, a national crisis is not the time to look for scapegoats.  And since Netanyahu cannot stop himself from doing exactly that, causing yet more divisions in society, that is yet another reason he must go ASAP.

3. I was not aware that Netanyahu had a relationship with the US Democratic Party, shitty or otherwise, nor did that thought enter in my mind in the slightest.  My concern is hi9s complete lack of credibility on the international stage and his inability AND unwillingness to make a persuasive case for Israel's actions before the international community.  The US Democratic Party is close to the least of his problems in that respect.

[The Minsky Moment]

Right, and this is a decision that the Israeli voting public has given every indication of being comfortable with, and which renouncing at this exact moment would send the signal that the best way to extract further concessions is to behead some more babies.

Sending the message of fair and just accountability for conduct is always the right message to send, at all times, and in all places.

[Admiral Yi]

Sending the message of fair and just accountability for conduct is always the right message to send, at all times, and in all places.

Disagree.  After 9/11 I had zero interest in reassessing US policy towards the Muslim world to see if there was anything we should be doing better.  I wanted to stack 'em up.  After the dust has settled and the bodies are buried is when you examine your own conscience.  Maybe that makes you the better person, but I can't ask the Israelis to be a better person than me.

[Iormlund]

Assassination attempt (unconfirmed) on Mahmoud Abbas.