The EU thread

[Sheilbh]

Hungary set to get €10 billion that was frozen over corruption/rule of law. Decision by Commission but shortly after Macron-Orban meeting.

Not clear what EU is getting in return but presumably it unblocks Hungary on the various Ukraine decisions. Obviously official position is it's entirely unconnected - but that is, I imagine, a legalist fiction. There'll be some pablum to allow the funds to be unfrozen, but I imagine there's been a political deal (if you trust Orban to follow through - and I probably do to be honest, this is his MO after all).

[HVC]

What's the over under on orban renegging on whatever possible deal?

[Sheilbh]

Not sure. In my line of work there's work done on cyber criminals who launch random ware attacks based on whether they'll return your data/systems largely unharmed if you pay them. And most do.

It's their business model so weirdl they need a reputation as trustworthy criminals. I feel like Orban is the same?

[HVC]

With the leeway he gets I feel like he can burn a few bridges before he has none left with europe. Putin would certainly punish him before the EU would in any regards.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVUoQAtEUnU

Polish MP uses fire extinguisher to douse menorah in the parliament building.  He later said it was a symbol of a Satanic religion and was told to leave the session of parliament.

[Tamas]

So 10 billion euros unlocked for Hungary, 21 billion remains locked. Also the EU has authorised Orban the Hungarian state purchasing the Budapest airport.

EDIT: nice caricature. The text for the two pub-goers says "Look, without Brexit, I'd have thought this was a Guy Ritchie movie":

[Josquius]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVUoQAtEUnU

Polish MP uses fire extinguisher to douse menorah in the parliament building.  He later said it was a symbol of a Satanic religion and was told to leave the session of parliament.

Amidst all the shit going down around Israel and the muddy waters the left often finds itself in, it is lovely to see some proper grade A old fashioned anti semitism for a change.

[Zoupa]

So 10 billion euros unlocked for Hungary, 21 billion remains locked. Also the EU has authorised Orban the Hungarian state purchasing the Budapest airport.

Can you explain to me why Orban campaigns on EU-phobia non-stop 24/7 but never campaigns on leaving the EU?

I understand the grift, corruption etc. But how do Hungarians reconcile the rhetoric that the EU is the Great Satan with never advocating for leaving it and always asking for more $$$?

[The Brain]

As a rule people don't turn down free money, Satanic or otherwise.

[Sheilbh]

Also I think he could argue that he's winning and support for his vision of Europe is growing - or that his politics (on migration especially, but I also think in a bit of a "civilisational turn") have really shaped the direction of travel for Europe in the last 13 years he's been in office.

[celedhring]

Also I think he could argue that he's winning and support for his vision of Europe is growing - or that his politics (on migration especially, but I also think in a bit of a "civilisational turn") have really shaped the direction of travel for Europe in the last 13 years he's been in office.

You give him too much credit, I think, I wish we could blame Orban for that.

[Zoupa]

But why does Hungary need to be in the EU to do any of that?

[Tamas]

So 10 billion euros unlocked for Hungary, 21 billion remains locked. Also the EU has authorised Orban the Hungarian state purchasing the Budapest airport.

Can you explain to me why Orban campaigns on EU-phobia non-stop 24/7 but never campaigns on leaving the EU?

I understand the grift, corruption etc. But how do Hungarians reconcile the rhetoric that the EU is the Great Satan with never advocating for leaving it and always asking for more $$$?

For the limited way Orban has tried to address this is that it makes economic sense for Hungary to stay. Which I guess is as much honesty as you'll ever get out of him.

[Sheilbh]

Fair.

I don't really think he's to blame for those trends in Europe, he's just riding the same waves as everyone else.

Where I'd give him "credit" is that I think he is partly responsible for turning the radical and far-right from being anti-EU (the other part was Brexit ). He's shown a way to use Europe to help achieve their goals and help mould it. I think before Orban a far-right/radical right EU was more or less unimaginable - I now think it's possible. I can imagine Le Pen, Meloni, Wilders, Orban etc meeting at the European Council, rotating Presidents etc shaping the agenda for Europe.

[Sheilbh]

But why does Hungary need to be in the EU to do any of that?

They get money and, from my understanding, Hungary is one of those countries that's very heavily integrated into, particularly German, European supply chains (I believe especially the CSU have deep business and political links). It'd be a catastrophe for them to leave.