North Korea just conducted another nuclear test

[jimmy olsen]

You know I'm begining to wonder if worries about North Korea were all wrong.  The old argument was that might become a wholesale nuke seller.  I wonder if instead they are using it as cover for an invasion of the South.  Threaten to destroy a Japanese city if the US intervenes.  Of course that's not a rational risk to make, but these guys are really strange.

The South would whip them singlehandedly.

[HisMajestyBOB]

You know I'm begining to wonder if worries about North Korea were all wrong.  The old argument was that might become a wholesale nuke seller.  I wonder if instead they are using it as cover for an invasion of the South.  Threaten to destroy a Japanese city if the US intervenes.  Of course that's not a rational risk to make, but these guys are really strange.

The South would whip them singlehandedly.

But the north has T-54s, those are far better than the M1-derived K1 tanks the south uses. I know this because I'm a tanker-Ranger-ninja.

[Queequeg]

Couldn't they come close to flattening Seou by traditional means? 35 miles from the border and one of the biggest cities in the world.

What would China's reaction be? They would stand to loose far more economicaly with a devestated South than a North?

[Razgovory]

You know I'm begining to wonder if worries about North Korea were all wrong.  The old argument was that might become a wholesale nuke seller.  I wonder if instead they are using it as cover for an invasion of the South.  Threaten to destroy a Japanese city if the US intervenes.  Of course that's not a rational risk to make, but these guys are really strange.

The South would whip them singlehandedly.

I didn't say this was a good idea.  But both sides in Korea dream of reuniting their country.

[Tamas]

Meh, they should have launched their offensive on Tuesday when thunderstorms kept me locked in my hotel. Could had used the CNN entertainment. Damn inconsiderate Koreans!   

[Neil]

Couldn't they come close to flattening Seou by traditional means? 35 miles from the border and one of the biggest cities in the world.

The North could wipe Seoul out with conventional artillery, and that's been their plan from day one.  They didn't really need an atom bomb, but we've been helpless to prevent them from getting one because they've always had that option.

[Saladin]

Is there any realistic way to stop that? How many tubes do the North Koreans have?

[Valmy]

So...when do the Japanese and South Koreans start their own nuclear programs?

[Saladin]

According to Tom Clancy the Japanese already have nukes..

[Josquius]

meh, let the N.Koreans have their nukes, its no big deal (don't tell them this of course though). They're just expending resources that could be better spent on other things.
The main worry I see is with the missiles-S.Korea is already going to get hit hard if it comes to war. With the missile programme though we've Japan coming into range...


And I second that if it came to a war S.Korea would be capable of beating the North on its own. With even a little American help its a joke. The after effects would be very interesting though.

[Caliga]

According to Tom Clancy the Japanese already have nukes..

I thought it was generally conceded that, while the Japanese don't have a nuclear arsenal and for obvious reasons are strongly opposed to the idea, they could easily build nuclear weapons if they chose to.

[Valmy]

meh, let the N.Koreans have their nukes, its no big deal (don't tell them this of course though).

Nuclear proliferation is not a big deal now?

[Neil]

Is there any realistic way to stop that? How many tubes do the North Koreans have?

Around about 11,000 or so that are aimed at Seoul.  There is no realistic way of stopping them from annihilating Seoul, should they choose to do so.  Even theoretically, the only way to do so would be to preempt the entirety of the Hwangnam, Kaesong, Hwangbuk and Kangwon provinces with atomics.  Naturally, that would have deleterious effects on Seoul-Inchon as well.  If we're lucky, the wind would blow the fallout into Peking, but it's more likely, given the prevailing winds of the region, that it would pass over South Korea and likely southern Japan.

[Neil]

meh, let the N.Koreans have their nukes, its no big deal (don't tell them this of course though).

Nuclear proliferation is not a big deal now?

Not if you're willing to sell the future of human civilization out for peace right now.

[The Minsky Moment]

They would stand to loose far more economicaly with a devestated South than a North?

It's not even close.  Trade flows with the South are around the $150 billion level and rising fast.  Meanwhile total Chinese exports to the North are around $2 billion, and they don't really get anything of value in return.

China's main interest in North Korea at this point is avoiding the scenario where millions of starving refugees flee across the border.  North Korea's sole remaining diplomatic chip of significance it its threat to die messily in the arms of the Chinese if China does not help them.