Tory wars over Europe

[CountDeMoney]

We have taxes, sane gun control, black people can vote, and we have a black president.

Lulz, which of these are facts and which is an opinion pulled out of your ass?

[Martinus]

I would be very surprised to see any willingness in Europe to renegotiate the treaties or accommodate the UK's position. The EU is deeply annoyed with the UK and would not agree to renegotiate even if, objectively, it was in the EU's interest, imo.

[Martinus]

Also, this thread would be much better without Neil's trolling.

[Warspite]

I would be very surprised to see any willingness in Europe to renegotiate the treaties or accommodate the UK's position. The EU is deeply annoyed with the UK and would not agree to renegotiate even if, objectively, it was in the EU's interest, imo.

There is no "EU" position on the UK, there are the opinions of different political constituencies within the twenty-seven other member states. I suspect Merkel would rather do what is reasonably possible to the keep the UK inside rather than have it drift out and have no counterweight against the French vision.

[Martinus]

I would be very surprised to see any willingness in Europe to renegotiate the treaties or accommodate the UK's position. The EU is deeply annoyed with the UK and would not agree to renegotiate even if, objectively, it was in the EU's interest, imo.

There is no "EU" position on the UK, there are the opinions of different political constituencies within the twenty-seven other member states. I suspect Merkel would rather do what is reasonably possible to the keep the UK inside rather than have it drift out and have no counterweight against the French vision.

I disagree. Letting the UK get away with treaty renegotiations will open flood gates for similar demands from other member states and Merkel knows that. And I find it laughable that Merkel would want to build a common position with Cameron against France - she can find allies elsewhere, e.g. in Poland.

[Warspite]

I would be very surprised to see any willingness in Europe to renegotiate the treaties or accommodate the UK's position. The EU is deeply annoyed with the UK and would not agree to renegotiate even if, objectively, it was in the EU's interest, imo.

There is no "EU" position on the UK, there are the opinions of different political constituencies within the twenty-seven other member states. I suspect Merkel would rather do what is reasonably possible to the keep the UK inside rather than have it drift out and have no counterweight against the French vision.

I disagree. Letting the UK get away with treaty renegotiations will open flood gates for similar demands from other member states and Merkel knows that. And I find it laughable that Merkel would want to build a common position with Cameron against France - she can find allies elsewhere, e.g. in Poland.

It's not laughable: Merkel and Cameron have already suggested they have a common position. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9991994/David-Cameron-and-Angela-Merkel-call-for-urgent-European-reform.html

Merkel and Cameron are much, much closer on EU issues than with Hollande.

[Josquius]

There really shouldn't be space for the UK to renegotiate. I agree it would set a horrific prescedent.
There should however be reforms of the EU as a whole.

[CountDeMoney]

I told you Brits never to surrender your sovereignty to that continental clusterfuck.  But noooo.

Now you can't get out, and renegotiation would definitely be a bad move, even if nothing came of it.  Sends the wrong message, and like Tyr says, sets a really bad precedent.

[alfred russel]

I disagree. Letting the UK get away with treaty renegotiations will open flood gates for similar demands from other member states and Merkel knows that. And I find it laughable that Merkel would want to build a common position with Cameron against France - she can find allies elsewhere, e.g. in Poland.

It really depends what "treaty renegotiations" refers to. The UK getting special breaks to contribute less money and/or get more money is one thing. General reform of some institutions that are arguably not working and are generally unpopular is another.

I think it is worth keeping in mind that there are only three large EU countries that are doing well right now--the UK, France, and Germany. The model has been for them to an extent carry some of the weight of less developed members former communist countries. For one of them to walk away is very bad for the EU, even if the UK has been less engaged than the other two.

[Martinus]

I told you Brits never to surrender your sovereignty to that continental clusterfuck.  But noooo.

Now you can't get out, and renegotiation would definitely be a bad move, even if nothing came of it.  Sends the wrong message, and like Tyr says, sets a really bad precedent.

Why would Brits listen to an avid IRA sympathizer?

[Martinus]

I think it is worth keeping in mind that there are only three large EU countries that are doing well right now--the UK, France, and Germany.

You forgot Poland.

In fact the way you are saying this, it is as if there were tons of large countries in the EU and only three (or in fact four) were doing well. The fact that out of six large countries in Europe, four are doing well is, imo, quite a success.

[alfred russel]

I think it is worth keeping in mind that there are only three large EU countries that are doing well right now--the UK, France, and Germany.

You forgot Poland.

In fact the way you are saying this, it is as if there were tons of large countries in the EU and only three (or in fact four) were doing well. The fact that out of six large countries in Europe, four are doing well is, imo, quite a success.

I didn't forget Poland. Poland is doing well relative to where it was 20 years ago, but it still doesn't have a highly developed economy and I would assume is a net drain on EU funds.

Maybe I should have specified what I meant a bit more.

[The Minsky Moment]

Let's say the UK exits.  Then what?

If they want to keep access to the internal market, they have to join the EEA.  But that just subjects them to all the EU market rules while severely downgrading their ability to be involved in their development.  True the UK would thereby escape the full fiscal apparatus of the EU but they are insulated from the potential negative effects of that already by the Rebate.

The alternative would be to stay outside the EEA as well but that would leave them outside their biggest market.  In theory the UK could negotiate its own bespoke trade and investment treaties, but it would have to get on line with the likes of the US, China, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, etc.  From the EU's POV the UK (standing alone) would not necessarily be viewed as a much higher priority then those other relationships.

I don't see the upside from the exit.

[Warspite]

Let's say the UK exits.  Then what?

If they want to keep access to the internal market, they have to join the EEA.  But that just subjects them to all the EU market rules while severely downgrading their ability to be involved in their development.  True the UK would thereby escape the full fiscal apparatus of the EU but they are insulated from the potential negative effects of that already by the Rebate.

The alternative would be to stay outside the EEA as well but that would leave them outside their biggest market.  In theory the UK could negotiate its own bespoke trade and investment treaties, but it would have to get on line with the likes of the US, China, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, etc.  From the EU's POV the UK (standing alone) would not necessarily be viewed as a much higher priority then those other relationships.

I don't see the upside from the exit.

I agree with you.

However, the Little Englander view is that the UK could depart from the EU and would still be better off for two reasons: first, the UK would be able to better pursue exports to higher-growth markets (ie Asia, Africa and Latin America); second, that the costs of EU contributions and regulatory frameworks outweigh the benefits of the single market. In other words, they reject your argument that these would be economically bad for the UK.

I think I have heard mention that outside of the EU, the UK could unilaterally dissolve all tariffs and basically go it alone on free trade (think tanks like the Adam Smith Institute advocate this).

[alfred russel]

I agree with you.

However, the Little Englander view is that the UK could depart from the EU and would still be better off for two reasons: first, the UK would be able to better pursue exports to higher-growth markets (ie Asia, Africa and Latin America); second, that the costs of EU contributions and regulatory frameworks outweigh the benefits of the single market. In other words, they reject your argument that these would be economically bad for the UK.

I think I have heard mention that outside of the EU, the UK could unilaterally dissolve all tariffs and basically go it alone on free trade (think tanks like the Adam Smith Institute advocate this).

From what I understand, the UK contributions to the EU are not very substantial.