2016 elections - because it's never too early

[CountDeMoney]

That's going to be impossible.  It is going to be the television event of the summer.

[mongers]

The 538 nowcast has Clinton winning 327 electoral votes if the election was held today.

Hillary Clinton 47.6%
Donald Trump 42.8%
Gary Johnson 8.3%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

A while back wasn't it supposed to be a walkover for her in the EC?

[jimmy olsen]

The 538 nowcast has Clinton winning 327 electoral votes if the election was held today.

Hillary Clinton 47.6%
Donald Trump 42.8%
Gary Johnson 8.3%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

A while back wasn't it supposed to be a walkover for her in the EC?

Hmm...just noticed the map presented doesn't jive with the total, if she wins those states she'd get 347 electoral votes, though 327 is certainly not bad.

[jimmy olsen]

Just saw that Gary Johnson/Bill Weld ad.  Pretty damn good for a 3rd party and better than the little that Trump has put out.

[jimmy olsen]

After Hastert, why not Trump?   

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trump-accused-of-savage-sexual-attack-on-a-13yearold-girl/news-story/6585a49357159ff2fdc3ff3933370500

Donald Trump accused of 'savage sexual attack' on a 13-year-old girl


DONALD Trump has been accused of an historical child rape in shocking allegations filed with the United States Federal Court.

While the Republican frontrunner has been making headlines for comparing a proposed free trade agreement to rape, a woman aged in her thirties has alleged that he "initiated sexual contact" with her on four occasions in 1994, when she was just 13-years-old.

Trump has categorically denied the allegations, which centre around parties held at the home of his friend, notorious paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

The alleged victim, who is not named in the documents, claims that during one "savage sexual attack" Trump tied her to a bed, exposed himself and "proceeded to forcibly rape" her while she "loudly pleaded" for him to stop — but that the billionaire responded by striking her in the face with his open hand and "screaming that he would do whatever he wanted".

It goes on to allege that Trump threatened the girl that, "were she ever to reveal any of the details of the sexual and physical abuse", she and her family "would be physically harmed if not killed".

The court documents, filed last month after an earlier case was dismissed for technical filing errors, seek to have the five-year New York statute of limitations waived on the grounds that the alleged victim was effectively "under duress" because she feared for her life.

A sworn statement by the alleged victim includes the allegation that Jeffrey Epstein also raped and threatened her, along with the stunning claim that the convicted child sex offender "attempted to strike me about the head with his closed fists while he angrily screamed at me that he, Defendant Epstein, should have been the one who took my virginity, not Defendant Trump".

A second sworn statement signed by an anonymous "Tiffany Doe", who claims to have been Epstein's "recruiter" from 1991 to 2000, says that the alleged victim was among adolescent girls she lured to the disgraced billionaire's wild parties with the promise of potential work in the modelling industry.

"I personally witnessed the Plaintiff being forced to perform various sexual acts with Donald J Trump and Mr Epstein," Tiffany Doe said in the statement. "Both Mr Trump and Mr Epstein were advised that she was 13-years-old ... I personally witnessed four sexual encounters that the Plaintiff was forced to have with Mr Trump during this period, including the fourth of these encounters where Mr Trump forcibly raped her despite her pleas to stop."





Both the alleged victim and Tiffany Doe spoke of a 12-year-old girl named Maria who had "disappeared" after one of Epstein's parties, and that Trump told the alleged victim she would meet the same fate if she ever revealed the alleged crime.

"I am coming forward to swear to the truthfulness of the physical and sexual abuse that I personally witnessed of minor females at the hands of Mr Trump and Mr Epstein," Tiffany Doe's statement said.

"I swear to these facts under the penalty for perjury even though I fully understand that the life of myself and my family is now in grave danger."


Not only has Trump vehemently denied the allegations, but his lawyer has dismissed them as a politically-motivated hoax, pointing out that the court documents were filed in such a way as to make it impossible to trace their source.

Lawyer Alan Garten told The Daily Mail that there was "absolutely no merit to these claims and, based on our investigation, no evidence that the person who has made these allegations actually exists".

"The allegations are not only categorically false, but disgusting at the highest level and clearly framed to solicit media attention or, more likely, are politically motivated," Mr Garten said.

But civil rights lawyer and media commentator Lisa Bloom has argued that while Trump should be considered innocent until proven guilty, the allegations should be taken seriously.

"No outsider can say whether Mr Trump is innocent or guilty of these new rape charges," Bloom wrote in an opinion piece for Huffington Post.

"But we can look at his record, analyse the court filings here, and make a determination as to credibility — whether the allegations are believable enough for us to take them seriously and investigate them, keeping in mind his denial and reporting new facts as they develop.

"I have done that. And the answer is a clear 'yes'. These allegations are credible. They ought not be ignored."

Bloom pointed to Trump's previous comments to New York Magazine about Epstein, who was jailed in 2008 for soliciting sex with an underage girl.

"I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He's a lot of fun to be with," Trump told magazine reporter Landon Thomas Jr.

"It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it, Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

The disgraced billionaire financier had many high profile friends, including Bill Clinton and Prince Andrew. It is not suggested that any of these men, or Trump, engaged in wrongdoing.

Bloom concluded that while the allegations might shock some, "as a lawyer who represents women in sexual abuse cases every day, I can tell you that sadly, they are common".

[PJL]

I suspect pollsters are underestimating Trumps numbers. I would add 3% to Trumps figures and subtract 3% from Hillary's figures. On that assumption, Trump is therefore more likely to win.

[garbon]

I suspect pollsters are underestimating Trumps numbers. I would add 3% to Trumps figures and subtract 3% from Hillary's figures. On that assumption, Trump is therefore more likely to win.

But of course.

[DGuller]

The 538 nowcast has Clinton winning 327 electoral votes if the election was held today.

Hillary Clinton 47.6%
Donald Trump 42.8%
Gary Johnson 8.3%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

A while back wasn't it supposed to be a walkover for her in the EC?

Hmm...just noticed the map presented doesn't jive with the total, if she wins those states she'd get 347 electoral votes, though 327 is certainly not bad.

Both the map and the EV counts are probably probabilistic, summed over all simulation trials.  In that case the states and EV counts wouldn't mesh perfectly.

[CountDeMoney]

Joni Ernst.  She's got all the Trumpisms.  Iraq war vet, so she's willing to kill Muslims.  Teabagger, so she's got broad, bipartisan crossover appeal.  Palin-approved, what with the whole castrating-hogs thingy.  Actually believes that Iraq still has WMDs that haven't been found yet, and thinks the EPA should be abolished.  No direct, specific evidence as to whether she hates blacks, but she is from Iowa.  A perfect fit.

Ernst on Trump's VP list, sources say
CNNPolitics.com

Washington (CNN)  Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst is among the candidates being considered to become Donald Trump's running mate, a source with knowledge of Trump's vice presidential selection process tells CNN. Another source close to the process confirmed the information.

It's not clear whether the freshman Republican senator and tea party star has received paperwork from the campaign or is just being scrutinized through the wealth of publicly accessible information about her.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence are also being considered, the source said. A senior Trump campaign adviser confirmed Pence is being formally vetted.

A senior Trump adviser confirmed that Ernst is being considered, but that it's not clear that Ernst is interested "as opposed to others who have said, 'Thanks, let's play ball.' "

Ernst's office has not responded to requests for comment.

Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, who was the first U.S. senator to endorse Trump and who has often been floated as a potential running mate for the billionaire, could be a fifth candidate but his name wasn't listed among those who had received the vetting paperwork, the source said.

The source added: "Pence is the obvious leading candidate for those who want a safe choice and someone who will appeal and pass the test of GOP establishment."

There are people close to Trump who are pushing for Pence, the source said.

Christie is more likely than Gingrich to be the second choice because "Newt is Newt," meaning he'll speak his mind, and will not be as loyal to Trump, the source added.

Gingrich, for instance, told an audience at the Aspen Ideas Festival: "Trump's job is, frankly, to quit screwing up and get the election down to three or four big issues, all of which come down to a single concept: 'Enough.' "

One commonality between all five potential choices is their political experience, a trait Trump has often said is a key factor in his decision as he looks ahead to advancing his legislative agenda through Congress.

"Only one person, Trump, is making the decision and he can change his mind from minute-to-minute," the source said.

Trump met with Pence Saturday at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, a source with knowledge of the meeting told CNN.

The meeting went well, according to two sources familiar with it.

Two sources said Pence was invited to stay for golf.

"On a scale of 1-10, it was a 9," one source said.

"The Pences enjoyed spending warm, productive time with the Trumps," said Pence spokesman Marc Lotter in a statement on Sunday. "They talked about policies that are working in Indiana and the future of this country. Nothing was offered and nothing was accepted."

Under an Indiana law that prohibits candidates from running simultaneously for state and federal offices, Pence faces a July 15 deadline to withdraw his name from his re-election race for governor if he's to join Trump's ticket — at least in Indiana, a reliably Republican state.

Trump could announce his choice of a running mate before the party's convention to help drum up excitement heading into Cleveland, a source familiar with the process told CNN on Friday. The billionaire and his aides had previously said the pick would likely be announced at the convention, which starts July 18.

[Razgovory]

Allen West.  Black.  Torturer.  VP.

[Legbiter]

FBI director is giving a live press conference on the Clinton investigation.

[Legbiter]

No charges for anyone. 

[derspiess]

Totally shocked.

[Barrister]

No charges for anyone. 

I thought you were in Team Trump.  Shouldn't you want Hillary to be charged?

[Legbiter]

I thought you were in Team Trump.  Shouldn't you want Hillary to be charged?

And face Bernie? Or Biden? No.