2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Legbiter]

Japanese Donald Trump commercial 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbM6WbUw7Bs

 

[LaCroix]

trump seems to be imploding

[garbon]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/15/politics/donald-trump-republican-leaders-by-myself/

Trump threatens to go it alone

Donald Trump slammed GOP leaders on Wednesday for not lining up behind him, implying that he's willing to go forward without their help.

"We have to have our Republicans either stick together or let me just do it by myself. I'll do very well. I'm going to do very well. OK? I'm going to do very well. A lot of people thought I should do that anyway, but I'll just do it very nicely by myself," Trump said, though he did not elaborate on what doing it "by myself" would mean.

[LaCroix]

awhile back, people talked about trump's great pivot in the general election. well, that's turning out to be wishful thinking. trump = hitler is kind of accurate, but in the sense that trump seems to think he knows better strategy than everyone else based on his early success

[Valmy]

awhile back, people talked about trump's great pivot in the general election. well, that's turning out to be wishful thinking. trump = hitler is kind of accurate, but in the sense that trump seems to think he knows better strategy than everyone else based on his early success

Yeah it seems when we meant politician = Hitler this time we mean it in his banal similarities.

[garbon]

The op-ed below seems to agree with that.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-isn-t-doing-poorly-he-s-not-even-running

Trump's Not Doing Poorly; He's Not Even Running

I was online last night when I saw someone say, 'Just think how differently this would be going if Rubes or Kasich were the nominee.' I actually think Clinton would be doing much better in those contests than a lot of people realize. But the counter-factual jarred me into a sudden realization: It's not just that Trump isn't doing well. He's barely running a campaign at all.

He's spent the last six weeks in an erratic barrage of self-inflicted wounds and petulant attacks on people who he needs to be critical allies. Not just Rubio or Kasich but any other candidate would be spending this time fleshing out a campaign team - usually bringing in the best operatives from the defeated primary challengers - developing campaign themes focused on the Democrats' nominee, raising and stockpiling money. These may not be exciting tasks but they are the critical work of standing up a national campaign, which is one part flash mob, one part Fortune 500 corporation. It's a big, big thing that takes a lot of managerial work to set up.

Others might do it well or poorly. But Trump isn't doing any of it. There's a Politico story out today about how the RNC gave him the names of twenty big GOP donors to call. He got bored or frustrated and stopped after calling three. And this comes after deciding that he actually doesn't need to raise a billion dollars.

Almost every day since he clinched the nomination almost six weeks ago has been a surreal tour through Trump's damaged psyche - the insecurities, silly feuds, the mix of self-serving lies and attacks on people he's supposed to be courting or justifying a supposed refusal to do things he finds himself actually unable to do (raise a billion dollars). More than anything he's attacking almost everyone but the person he's running against - and that, not terribly effectively. The major themes of his campaign appear to be racist "Mexican" judges, his ability to predict terror attacks and the inevitable destruction of the American republic.

It would be like sitting in the stands watching a football game. But one team isn't even taking the field because the quarterback is on the sidelines knifing his coaches and teammates. Trump issues daily attacks on GOP insiders as corrupt pansies; they attack him as an unstable racist. You almost feel sorry for the Dems: where's their angle in on the 2016 campaign?

It's such a spectacle. The daily particulars are so mesmerizing that you have to step back to see that Trump isn't even running a campaign.

[Admiral Yi]

trump seems to be imploding

My impression is at worst he has stalled out, but I would like to see more survey data before i start declaring victory.

[Barrister]

trump seems to be imploding

My impression is at worst he has stalled out, but I would like to see more survey data before i start declaring victory.

He's definitely had a bad two weeks, but November is still a long time away.  I agree - HIllary shouldn't start measuring the oval office for new drapes just yet.

[Barrister]

Just throwing it out there: any chance Donald Trump, who is obsessed with "winning", sees poll numbers so bad he just withdraws from the race prior to the convention?

There's some precedent - Ross Perot did it in 1992 (though he was actually leading the polls), before he later reversed himself and re-entered the race.

[LaCroix]

Just throwing it out there: any chance Donald Trump, who is obsessed with "winning", sees poll numbers so bad he just withdraws from the race prior to the convention?

There's some precedent - Ross Perot did it in 1992 (though he was actually leading the polls), before he later reversed himself and re-entered the race.

I think at some point once it becomes obvious to trump that he can't win, he'll start focusing more on how this election helps build his business empire (he's already doing this, but I think it'll increase in intensity). I'm not sure dropping out would help with that

[Razgovory]

I'm familiar with one woman who recently decided she wanted to vote for Trump

Ah anecdotes. Always better than polling.

Wasn't contesting the polling; just throwing that in there

Maybe she just wants an American Peron.

[Barrister]

Just throwing it out there: any chance Donald Trump, who is obsessed with "winning", sees poll numbers so bad he just withdraws from the race prior to the convention?

There's some precedent - Ross Perot did it in 1992 (though he was actually leading the polls), before he later reversed himself and re-entered the race.

I think at some point once it becomes obvious to trump that he can't win, he'll start focusing more on how this election helps build his business empire (he's already doing this, but I think it'll increase in intensity). I'm not sure dropping out would help with that

Going down to a devastating loss can't be good for his business empire.

[Admiral Yi]

You guys better not jinx it.

[LaCroix]

Going down to a devastating loss can't be good for his business empire.

getting percentage in the 30s would be better than dropping out, IMO.

[LaCroix]

there's also a very possible chance that trump will never realize he's lost until he sees the results. he's already starting to do mental gymnastics about polling numbers. I could see him eventually reject them completely and assume that on election day, people will support him. like a reverse situation to when people hoped the polls were wrong and trump wasn't going to win the primary.