2016 elections - because it's never too early

[alfred russel]

The NYT is running a live projection of delegate counts--for all the talk of Trump dominance, he is coming in at ~43% of the total right now. That obviously isn't enough to get him the nomination without a contested convention. It may be easier to run up big margins when the winner take all states come around in a couple weeks, but things also may get harder for him when/if the field consolidates.

Promise me, ar, promise me that you'll never lose faith like that Nate Silver faggot. 

That isn't Nate Silver. That is taking the estimate of the current delegates won and dividing them by the total delegates awarded and comparing that percentage needed to win the nomination without a brokered contested convention. You know: basically super high level math, statistics, and analytics for the average Trump voter.

[FunkMonk]

So I'm hearing now around the Internets that the best scenario for the "establishment" Republicans is for ALL the candidates to now stay in the race because if one or more drop out at least a portion of their support will go to Trump, making it easier for Trump to win the nomination outright through majority of delegates. Then they could have a contested convention and defeat the Trump faction there.

[derspiess]

There is no good scenario for the establishment at this point.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Would he have time to get on the ballot?

What's happened to Blomberg's possible run? Haven't heard much on that recently.

He would, most states the deadline for independents is fairly late in the calendar. I looked it up awhile back and only a few states had them so early that Trump would be unlikely to get on the ballot. A few have "sore loser" statutes that say if you ran for the nomination for one party you can't then register as an independent, but he'll be able to get on like 40+ state ballots. Trump's goal running as a third party candidate in this scenario won't be winning, it'll be ass raping the GOP.

[Monoriu]

There is no good scenario for the establishment at this point.

Trump dies in a car accident

[alfred russel]

So I'm hearing now around the Internets that the best scenario for the "establishment" Republicans is for ALL the candidates to now stay in the race because if one or more drop out at least a portion of their support will go to Trump, making it easier for Trump to win the nomination outright through majority of delegates. Then they could have a contested convention and defeat the Trump faction there.

That doesn't make sense.

Last night Trump won 7 of 11 states. Had Carson not been in the race, and either Rubio or Kasich dropped out (and assuming they are drawing from somewhat similar voter pools), it is quite possible Virginia, Vermont, and Arkansas would not have been won by Trump. 4 out of 11 is bad in winner take all states if you don't want to go to a contested convention. Also, lots of proportional states of 20% thresholds to get any delegates. In some places Rubio just missed the cut off. With a more consolidated field, while Trump's percentage may go up, his delegates may go down even in proportional states.

[alfred russel]

Results in my county:

Clinton: 71%
Sanders: 29%

Rubio: 42%
Trump: 27%
Cruz: 15%
Kasich: 13%
Carson: 3%

I think this is the biggest county in Georgia--if not probably the second biggest--so I imagine the rest of the state was really dumb.

[lustindarkness]

Well, the important result is that my county will now allow alcohol to be sold on Sundays, so we are not all THAT stupid.   

[derspiess]

Lol, replace "GOP" with "Languish" here and it sums up this thread.

http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463

[Valmy]

Lol, replace "GOP" with "Languish" here and it sums up this thread.

http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463

WASHINGTON—In an effort to counter the real estate magnate's rapidly growing lead in the delegate count, Languish statisticians announced Wednesday they had successfully developed an entirely new branch of mathematics for formulating scenarios in which Donald Trump does not win the Republican Party's presidential nomination. "By expanding on pioneering work in the fields of applied statistics, higher-order logic, and number theory, we've arrived at a new branch of mathematics that provides for a multitude of feasible outcomes in which Donald Trump is not the 2016 GOP nominee," said Dr. Jeffrey Larson, who has led a team of more than 30 statisticians who have been working around the clock at Languish headquarters to establish new mathematical properties since the wealthy businessman won the New Hampshire primary by a 20-point margin. "The new field required several breakthroughs on the manipulation of Boole's inequality principle, and some of our models are still only predictive within certain artificial stochastic conditions. However, this new discipline of Nonlinear Computational Probability finally establishes a practicable methodology by which there exist possible paths to the nomination for Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz." At press time, Larson announced the team had devised a new method of abstraction and mathematical induction in which lower numbers have a greater numerical value than their higher counterparts.

[FunkMonk]

 

[Barrister]

Lol, replace "GOP" with "Languish" here and it sums up this thread.

http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463

I've been saying Trump is going to win the nomination for weeks now.

[Valmy]

I've been saying Trump is going to win the nomination for weeks now.

He is making fun of Dorsey I think. I should probably have changed "Jeffery Larson" to "Dorsey Foreisman".

[Martinus]

 

[garbon]

Love it.