2016 elections - because it's never too early

[derspiess]

Wow, some of these results are wildly different. I thought only our polling companies sucked.

This event is almost impossible to poll.

Almost no one goes to the caucuses--it is an "election" that you have to show up to on a certain time and certain day, and listen to annoying speeches, and at least for one party vote openly in front of your neighbors. Maybe 10% of the population will participate. Of that 10%, some will go to the republican and some the democratic caucus. So how do you poll that?

So why the fuck even show the polls? Or comment on them?

It's supposedly an indicator of voter enthusiasm for a particular candidate.  Has not really been the case for the last two Republican caucuses, but the one that Obama won 8 years ago was kind of a big deal.

[Valmy]

Also, if O'Malley can pull of the big upset and win tonight, it will show that maybe pigs really can fly and all that effort I've spent trying to shoot moonbeams out of my ass isn't in vain.

[derspiess]

Potential GOP field looks like it might be the best since 1988.  Rubio, Jeb Bush, Christie, Jindal, Scott Walker, and Rand Paul.

LOLZ

Sorry it didn't work out for you Spicey.

Hey, there are still a couple good ones!  Just didn't factor in the Trump card.

[Barrister]

Potential GOP field looks like it might be the best since 1988.  Rubio, Jeb Bush, Christie, Jindal, Scott Walker, and Rand Paul.

LOLZ

Sorry it didn't work out for you Spicey.

Hey, there are still a couple good ones!  Just didn't factor in the Trump card.

It's more than just Trump though.

Two years ago, who thought Jeb Bush would be such a dud campaigner?  That Chris Christie would implode over a scandal in NJ involving bridges?  That Scott Walker would be Not Ready For Primetime?  That Rand Paul would utterly fail to build on his father's success?

There's hope yet though.  Rubio seems to be doing well.  Christie's all-in New Hampshire strategy is showing some positive results.  If someone can convince Paul, Bush and some of the other also-rans to pull out we might see some consolidation behind a more traditional candidate.

[Razgovory]

Potential GOP field looks like it might be the best since 1988.  Rubio, Jeb Bush, Christie, Jindal, Scott Walker, and Rand Paul.

LOLZ

Sorry it didn't work out for you Spicey.

Hey, there are still a couple good ones!  Just didn't factor in the Trump card.

It's more than just Trump though.

Two years ago, who thought Jeb Bush would be such a dud campaigner?  That Chris Christie would implode over a scandal in NJ involving bridges?  That Scott Walker would be Not Ready For Primetime?  That Rand Paul would utterly fail to build on his father's success?

There's hope yet though.  Rubio seems to be doing well.  Christie's all-in New Hampshire strategy is showing some positive results.  If someone can convince Paul, Bush and some of the other also-rans to pull out we might see some consolidation behind a more traditional candidate.

The problem is not with the candidates.  They are fine.  I mean, really who gives a shit about some road closings in New Jersey?  The problem is the with the GOP rank and file who are in revolt.  I think there is a real possibility of a short term split (like the Democrats in 1948 and 1968.), particularly if Trump wins a plurality of votes but loses in the convention.

[Eddie Teach]

Obviously the Republican result is much more fun to watch from a trainwreck perspective, but the Democratic result could be decisive. Sanders will probably win New Hampshire, and a win in Iowa will give him a lot of momentum and he will start looking like a winner--that could turn the polls around in later states. It is hard to see how splitting the first two states, with one state being right next to his own, will have the same effect. Also, if O'Malley can pull of the big upset and win tonight, it will show that maybe pigs really can fly and all that effort I've spent trying to shoot moonbeams out of my ass isn't in vain.

If O'Malley can pull it out, maybe there's hope for Gilmore after all. 

[jimmy olsen]

Huge turnout at GOP caucuses on east side of DSM so far

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/694313371185729536?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Deborah Humphrey is at her caucus to support Trump. She says she last voted in 1968 for Richard Nixon

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/694315979409485824/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

[DGuller]

Come on, Donald, you can do this.

[jimmy olsen]

Come on, Donald, you can do this.

If the conventional wisdom is correct, high turnout is good for the Donald.

[alfred russel]

Huge turnout at GOP caucuses on east side of DSM so far

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/694313371185729536?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Deborah Humphrey is at her caucus to support Trump. She says she last voted in 1968 for Richard Nixon

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/694315979409485824/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Well that settles it. Some dude on twitter says turnout is high and Debbie supports Trump. I'm going to bed. Wake me up after we've sworn in President Trump.

[DGuller]

Come on, Donald, you can do this.

If the conventional wisdom is correct, high turnout is good for the Donald.

I know.  But, still, it's hard to not be nervous.

[Liep]

Come on, Donald, you can do this.

If the conventional wisdom is correct, high turnout is good for the Donald.

Has he run before?

[alfred russel]

DGuller, so you bet on Trump to win?

[alfred russel]

Come on, Donald, you can do this.

If the conventional wisdom is correct, high turnout is good for the Donald.

Wait a second Tim...the caucuses don't even start for 11 more minutes--and when you posted the tweet about high turnout it was 25. So some dude on twitter apparently at one site well before the caucuses start says turnout is high, and you go with that?

[jimmy olsen]

Huge turnout at GOP caucuses on east side of DSM so far

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/694313371185729536?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Deborah Humphrey is at her caucus to support Trump. She says she last voted in 1968 for Richard Nixon

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/694315979409485824/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Well that settles it. Some dude on twitter says turnout is high and Debbie supports Trump. I'm going to bed. Wake me up after we've sworn in President Trump.

That Twitter guy is being quoted by the Guardian