2016 elections - because it's never too early

[DGuller]

It doesn't look too far off-base to me. Walker's been on a downward trend already, and his lackluster performance in the debates has sealed the deal regardless of how much SuperPac $$$ he has. Fiorina's support is going to draw from the outsider group - Carson and Trump - and that's what appears to happen. Rubio can be explained as being the only presidential-looking non-inept establishment candidate. The exact amount of support is debatable but the trend isn't suspicious.

You can always create a narrative for the numbers, but I'm still skeptical.  I would not be surprised if other polls that come out don't agree with these results.

[11B4V]

29% for Trump...fucking lunatics

if I were a Republican, I could certainly see an appeal in Trump.  The GOP is very, very well disciplined about the fact that the economic agenda of its plutocrat wing is not under any discussion.  Even discussions about discussing it are off-limits.  You want social conservatism and intolerance, you have to take crony capitalism with it (they'll package it in a way that will allow you to think it's in your interests, if that would make it easier for you to swallow). 

Trump is actually offering voters both the intolerance and by GOP standards pretty populist economic platform.  Turns out that a lot of people prefer that to what GOP has to offer.  And he's not just an outrage creating machine, he's a pretty energetic and captivating speaker, far more lucid than you would expect if you just form your opinion from outrageous things he says that make it to the news.

IMO good points. Will the GOP have the guts to stick behind him if he hasn't imploded and is the clear GOP choice. I don't know. I still think Rubio is going to be their man with Fiorina as the token. If she doesn't get too chewed up. She is not a Palin.

[DGuller]

My money is on Rubio as well.  Realistically speaking, it's either Bush or Rubio, but Bush just seems so out of it right now.  Trump managed to define him in a way that's very devastating, mostly because it rings true.

[11B4V]

I would like to see the look on the western heads of state if Trump, dare say, win POTUS. That would be priceless.

[jimmy olsen]

29% for Trump...fucking lunatics

if I were a Republican, I could certainly see an appeal in Trump.  The GOP is very, very well disciplined about the fact that the economic agenda of its plutocrat wing is not under any discussion.  Even discussions about discussing it are off-limits.  You want social conservatism and intolerance, you have to take crony capitalism with it (they'll package it in a way that will allow you to think it's in your interests, if that would make it easier for you to swallow). 

Trump is actually offering voters both the intolerance and by GOP standards pretty populist economic platform.  Turns out that a lot of people prefer that to what GOP has to offer.  And he's not just an outrage creating machine, he's a pretty energetic and captivating speaker, far more lucid than you would expect if you just form your opinion from outrageous things he says that make it to the news.

Yeah, he's going for a more European right wing platform of of welfare for us, not for them. The GOP has been fighting the Dems platform of welfare for all with a welfare for no one line, and it has been begrudgingly accepted. No surprise that a lot of folks, prefer the former.

[jimmy olsen]

It doesn't look too far off-base to me. Walker's been on a downward trend already, and his lackluster performance in the debates has sealed the deal regardless of how much SuperPac $$$ he has. Fiorina's support is going to draw from the outsider group - Carson and Trump - and that's what appears to happen. Rubio can be explained as being the only presidential-looking non-inept establishment candidate. The exact amount of support is debatable but the trend isn't suspicious.

You can always create a narrative for the numbers, but I'm still skeptical.  I would not be surprised if other polls that come out don't agree with these results.

The NBC poll I posted seems to be moving in that direction.

[Jaron]

Trump seems unstoppable.

[Legbiter]

Trump seems unstoppable.

He looks antifragile, the more the media attack him the more popular he gets. 

[Eddie Teach]

Yeah, he's going for a more European right wing platform of of welfare for us, not for them. The GOP has been fighting the Dems platform of welfare for all with a welfare for no one line, and it has been begrudgingly accepted. No surprise that a lot of folks, prefer the former.

Is he? Seems like the bits I've heard from him have a lot of the usual "tax breaks so people start businesses yadda yadda" and nothing about increasing welfare programs. The main difference between him and the establishment Republicans seems to be that he's not religiously committed to free trade.

Is Trump the second coming of Ross Perot? 

[DGuller]

Yeah, he's going for a more European right wing platform of of welfare for us, not for them. The GOP has been fighting the Dems platform of welfare for all with a welfare for no one line, and it has been begrudgingly accepted. No surprise that a lot of folks, prefer the former.

Is he? Seems like the bits I've heard from him have a lot of the usual "tax breaks so people start businesses yadda yadda" and nothing about increasing welfare programs. The main difference between him and the establishment Republicans seems to be that he's not religiously committed to free trade.

Is Trump the second coming of Ross Perot? 

He did come out in support of progressive taxation, against cutting entitlements, and said that hedge fund managers should be taxed more.  By GOP standards, he's a heretic.

[alfred russel]

He did come out in support of progressive taxation, against cutting entitlements, and said that hedge fund managers should be taxed more.  By GOP standards, he's a heretic.

A heretic in speech, but not in action. For decades the GOP has been paying lip service to certain positions in campaigns (especially primaries), but then governs differently. Except for the hedge fund issue, which is a fringe issue not many people understand or care about, no one should expect an establishment republican administration to seriously try to overturn progressive taxation or significantly cut social security or medicare.

Early on you thought that Trump was causing harm by sucking out the oxygen for a low profile but credible candidate, and I though that he was harmless. I'm beginning to think that he is causing harm but for a different reason: guys like Rubio should be getting fully vetted right now before the voting starts.

[HisMajestyBOB]

It doesn't look too far off-base to me. Walker's been on a downward trend already, and his lackluster performance in the debates has sealed the deal regardless of how much SuperPac $$$ he has. Fiorina's support is going to draw from the outsider group - Carson and Trump - and that's what appears to happen. Rubio can be explained as being the only presidential-looking non-inept establishment candidate. The exact amount of support is debatable but the trend isn't suspicious.

You can always create a narrative for the numbers, but I'm still skeptical.  I would not be surprised if other polls that come out don't agree with these results.

In what way would you expect it to be different?
Not picking a fight - just curious.

[DGuller]

Early on you thought that Trump was causing harm by sucking out the oxygen for a low profile but credible candidate, and I though that he was harmless. I'm beginning to think that he is causing harm but for a different reason: guys like Rubio should be getting fully vetted right now before the voting starts.

I have to be honest, I didn't expect him to be this serious of a candidate.  He really does seem intent on winning, even if he is delusional about it.  For a long time I thought that he was just trolling.

[DGuller]

It doesn't look too far off-base to me. Walker's been on a downward trend already, and his lackluster performance in the debates has sealed the deal regardless of how much SuperPac $$$ he has. Fiorina's support is going to draw from the outsider group - Carson and Trump - and that's what appears to happen. Rubio can be explained as being the only presidential-looking non-inept establishment candidate. The exact amount of support is debatable but the trend isn't suspicious.

You can always create a narrative for the numbers, but I'm still skeptical.  I would not be surprised if other polls that come out don't agree with these results.

In what way would you expect it to be different?
Not picking a fight - just curious.

Less of a departure from pre-debate numbers.  And Walker with more than 0% support.

[garbon]

So did Carson make his anti-Muslim comments so to take the bullet for Trump, so to speak?