2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Martinus]

Adults should be able to react in non-emotional ways.

You mean, say, accepting an occassional loss in Presidential elections?

[Martinus]

Don't fucking underestimate Donald Fucking Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKzsktuqwyU

[Grey Fox]

I find this random Facebook opinion interesting. From a Women in Nebraska :

On another thread, someone asked "do you think now they'll believe us about white supremacy and rape culture?"
I said this:
I live in deep Trumpland. And no, they don't believe it. They literally have no idea wtf we're talking about. They see that kind of talk as totally out to lunch.They see themselves as good decent normal every day people who didn't want to give Bill Clinton a third term, who are still pissed about NAFTA and see her as having the same policies, and who feel that Obamacare has destroyed the insurance industry because so many are pulling out of various states. They felt the insurance industry needed overhaul, not that citizens should be punished for not buying into it (many are preferring the fine to signing up for insurance they cannot afford) and while they don't think "different" people (different races, different genders, different sexualities) should be disrespected and hurt for that, they don't think they should get what they see as "special" privileges either. They resist strongly they accusation that they are racist. They see it as people should all behave a certain way and live up to certain expectations, regardless of skin colour or religion. They do not understand how the hell that is racist. They do not understand how telling women it's a lot easier to tell a man no with your clothes on and sober than it is naked in his bed and so drunk you can't speak is misogyny. To them it's truly common sense. They're bewildered and think anyone who thinks they're racist, misogynist etc is fucking crazy and can't take responsibility for themselves. And amongst the military parent set, even after that insult to the Gold Star parents, Trump did not lie the morning after Benghazi, and that's the lie they cared about most. They've heard the accusations of racism and misogyny so many times and defined so far down (it's now racist to dress up as cowboys and Indians for Halloween) that it's now meaningless to them.
I don't agree with them, but that's how they see themselves, and if we don't start looking at that instead of screaming about what a bunch of assholes they are, we're not gonna get anywhere.

[derspiess]

I think Biden could have won.

[Valmy]

I think Biden could have won.

I agree. Pity he decided not to.

But I don't know if he could have beaten Clinton/Sanders. Clinton has a VERY loyal base.

[Martinus]

Sorry, but bullshit like "rape culture" is one of the reasons why people get turned away from the "progressive left".

Do rapes happen at US campuses? Yes, and should be penalised, like any other crime. Are women at US campuses - which are probably some of the most liberal places on Earth - really at a structural risk of rape that is greater than pretty much every other place in the US (not to mention on the planet)? This is bullshit. So viewing every male college student as a potential rapist is counterproductive, and, frankly speaking, unfair. And it leads to stuff like college bodies - which are entirely not equipped to do so - being tasked with adjudicating on rape and sexual assault charges, which very often completely disregard the rules of fair trial - and even if they do not pass criminal sentences, being expelled from college as a "rapist" based on a ruling of a cangaroo court can fuck up your life big time.

[derspiess]

Obama is giving a pretty good speech.

[Berkut]

I think Biden could have won.

Yep

[Grinning_Colossus]

Christ, Biden was crying.

[Valmy]

Sorry, but bullshit like "rape culture" is one of the reasons why people get turned away from the "progressive left".

Well we did just elect a dude who bragged about groping people. So, you know, that kind of makes their point.

Agree on the kangaroo court shit on campuses though. It is an over-reaction to a perplexing problem of how we hold those people accountable.

[garbon]

Adults should be able to react in non-emotional ways.

You mean, say, accepting an occassional loss in Presidential elections?

I've had 3 losses. It also isn't going to affect my voting behavior but just cause me distress yes that homophobes, misogynists and racists will now have a stronger sway in policy. I think it is a bit rational as someone who evokes the ire of two of those groups, to feel a bit emotional.

[The Minsky Moment]

Saw a bunch of stories talking up the USC/LA Times poll claiming that it accurately forecast the results.

The poll has its virtues, but the reality is that it got the national numbers just as wrong as the mainstream polls.  The mainstream polls were giving HRC a 3 point national lead going in, USC/LA Times was giving Trump a 3 point lead nationally.  It looks like the national vote will be a virtually tie so both sets of polls had a 3 point error.

I agree with some of the comments above that Silver and his people probably came out the best even though their call was wrong.  Silver's position re state correlated error in particular has been vindicated as against the aggregators (notably Sam Wang) that downplayed this.

[derspiess]

I've had 3 losses. It also isn't going to affect my voting behavior but just cause me distress yes that homophobes, misogynists and racists will now have a stronger sway in policy. I think it is a bit rational as someone who evokes the ire of two of those groups, to feel a bit emotional.

I've had 5 losses.  Just 2 wins.

[derspiess]

Saw a bunch of stories talking up the USC/LA Times poll claiming that it accurately forecast the results.

The poll has its virtues, but the reality is that it got the national numbers just as wrong as the mainstream polls.  The mainstream polls were giving HRC a 3 point national lead going in, USC/LA Times was giving Trump a 3 point lead nationally.  It looks like the national vote will be a virtually tie so both sets of polls had a 3 point error.

I agree with some of the comments above that Silver and his people probably came out the best even though their call was wrong.  Silver's position re state correlated error in particular has been vindicated as against the aggregators (notably Sam Wang) that downplayed this.

Zero idea if this is what actually happened, but I had a gut feeling the whole election that many/most of the polls had 2008 and 2012 levels of Democrat and black turnout baked into them, and Hillary was just not going to draw out those demographics like Obama did.

[Valmy]

I've had 3 losses. It also isn't going to affect my voting behavior but just cause me distress yes that homophobes, misogynists and racists will now have a stronger sway in policy. I think it is a bit rational as someone who evokes the ire of two of those groups, to feel a bit emotional.

I've had 5 losses.  Just 2 wins.

Same.