2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Gups]

What I take from this right now is how

1) Polls & Pollster don't work anymore. Brexit, Liberal Party win Canada, NDP win in Alberta, Trump. They can't predict shit anymore.

2) The Liberal media bias is real. We only ever talk about ourselves.

Brexit polls weren't off by more than the margin of error. We just didn't want to believe them

[alfred russel]

It really is a shame the GOP establishment is so spineless or we could see some real Machiavellian shit go down once Trump is convicted of fraud. Pence and Ryan stabbing Trump in the back House of Cards style to impeach him and put a "real" conservative in the Oval Office.

Tim, how have you not yet learned that you are a dumbass?

How is he going to get convicted of fraud? The fraud case against him is a civil case. A criminal case won't be brought against a sitting US president.

[The Larch]

It seems that it was a team effort of David Bowie and Prince holding sanity in the world together, and once they're gone reality has unravelled.

[Martinus]

It really is a shame the GOP establishment is so spineless or we could see some real Machiavellian shit go down once Trump is convicted of fraud. Pence and Ryan stabbing Trump in the back House of Cards style to impeach him and put a "real" conservative in the Oval Office.

Tim, how have you not yet learned that you are a dumbass?

How is he going to get convicted of fraud? The fraud case against him is a civil case. A criminal case won't be brought against a sitting US president.

Also, it really shows one to be spineless if one does not initiate impeachment of your presidential candidate immediately after he is elected, I guess. 

[Martinus]

It seems that it was a team effort of David Bowie and Prince holding sanity in the world together, and once they're gone reality has unravelled.

Funnily enough, both flirted with some weird politics and ideology - Bowie supported Reagan in the 80s, and Prince was a conservative Jehowah Witness who would probably agree with most of the shit Pence says.

On a day like this we have to remember that the world is a rich tapestry of crazy but somehow things do work out in the end most of the time.

[alfred russel]

So weird. GOP loses ground in the House and Senate, but takes back the presidency with the most unpopular major candidate in modern history.

[Fate]

What the fuck happened in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan? 2008/2012 Obama voters seem like they just didn't turn out.

Last night in those states Trump got about the same number of votes as Romney did in 2012.

But Obama got 300k more votes in Michigan over Clinton, 220k in Wisconsin, 200k in Minnesota, and 500k in Ohio.

Kind of a more mixed story in Pennsylvania. Clinton is 100k down relative to Obama in Pennsylvania in 2012 but Trump is up by 200k over Romney.

Turnout was definitely up in Florida on both sides. Clinton outperformed Obama in absolute number of votes in each state over 2012 but Trump found a hell of a lot of new voters over Romney.

[The Minsky Moment]

Another interpretation is that Obama voters turned out but some voted for the other guy.

The dynamics also differed by state.  For example, Trump polled well behind Portman in Ohio, who is a free trader.  Ohio looks more like a red shift than a Trump shift. 

[Savonarola]

A friend of mine posted an exit poll stat showing that 33% of Latino male voters supported Trump.

El caudillo norteamericano

Trump won big with the Cubans in Florida during the primaries; soundly beating Rubio in that demographic.

[HisMajestyBOB]

So where did the Democratic Party go wrong, and more importantly, where do they go from here?
It's beyond Hillary: the Dems simply can't win at any level.

[derspiess]

Looks like the Cigar Aficionado poll got it right.

[Savonarola]

When I was in college I had a professor who had been politically active in Michigan's state political scene his whole life.  He was a member of the State Board of Education for t number of years.  I had his class the day after Bill Clinton won the election in 1992.  He said something to the effect that while he didn't want that result; he'd be a damn dumb Republican to hope that Clinton failed.

I thought of that this morning.  While Trump isn't the man I would have wanted to win; I'd be a damn dumb well, independent, to hope he failed.  So best of luck Donnie; and congratulations to all the deplorable whatever basket you may be in. 

[Savonarola]

So where did the Democratic Party go wrong, and more importantly, where do they go from here?
It's beyond Hillary: the Dems simply can't win at any level.

They gained seats in the Senate; and will almost certainly take control of the Senate and probably the house as well in 2018.

[Martinus]

Incidentally, this election paradoxically proves that despite all the money in US politics and the strength of the corporate and media establishment, they can't do shit if the people make up their mind about something. This, if nothing else, should be seen as a positive.

[Berkut]

The question isn't what I want, the question is what do I think will happen?

Trump is still Trump.  He is still completely unqualified and completely unsuited to the job, to a dangerous degree.

I don't want him to fail, but I am almost certain he is going to fail. The question is how do we mitigate the damage.

The set of possible outcomes at this point range from catastrophic, in the very literal sense of the word, to just incredibly bad.

Here is to hoping for "just incredibly bad".