2016 elections - because it's never too early

[mongers]

Paddy Power current odds:

Drumpf 3/1

Crooked Hillary 2/9

Yi, remember you had faith in the online odds right up to the line on the Brexit vote? 

[Admiral Yi]

Yi, remember you had faith in the online odds right up to the line on the Brexit vote? 

I remember making a comment about the predictive value of betting markets.

What were the odds on Brexit/Bremain?

[Liep]

Yi, remember you had faith in the online odds right up to the line on the Brexit vote? 

I remember making a comment about the predictive value of betting markets.

What were the odds on Brexit/Bremain?

Odds on Bremain plummeted on the day of the vote to something like 1.10

[garbon]

Trump clarifies his "Obama is the founder of ISIS" remark: he was being sarcastic (but not that sarcastic). It is the fault of the press for not figuring that out!

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-explains-calling-obama-founder-isis-sarcasm/story?id=41326238

Well, glad that's cleared it up. 

I liked the Hil account being like oh so we missed how you were being sarcastic on building a wall, banning muslims and attacking Gold star parents.

[Sheilbh]

Yi, remember you had faith in the online odds right up to the line on the Brexit vote? 

I remember making a comment about the predictive value of betting markets.

What were the odds on Brexit/Bremain?

From the day of the vote. Full disclaimer, I don't understand odds:

The latest Brexit betting: what are the odds for the EU referendum?
Placing a stake on the Brexit result? Check the latest odds here.
BY
NEW STATESMAN

Latest Brexit odds from Paddy Power:
Remain 1/4
Leave 3/1

It's your last chance to place a bet of the outcome of the EU referendum. Since the beginning of the campaign, bookmakers have had Remain pegged as the most likely result. And with polling now open, the latest Brexit odds are even more emphatic: Remain's have shortened, while Leave's have lengthened substantially.

Whatever you're hoping for, placing a bet on the other side might be a good way to soften the blow: after all, if you believe the OECD Brexit warnings about the consequences for Britain of being outside the EU, a fat payout on a Leave result could be just the thing to soften the shortfall in GDP.

Ready to put your money on Leave or Remain? Check out all the latest Brexit odds.

Skybet
Remain 1/9
Leave 11/2

Boylesports
Remain 1/10
Leave 6/1

Betfred
Remain 1/9
Leave 11/2

Sportingbet
Remain 1/10
Leave 11/2

BetVictor
Remain 1/12
Leave 6/1

Paddy Power
Remain 1/12
Leave 7/1

Stan James
Remain 1/7
Leave 9/2

888 Sport
Remain 2/19
Leave 11/2

Ladbrokes
Remain 1/10
Leave 6/1

Coral
Remain 1/9
Leave 5/1

William Hill
Remain 1/8
Leave 5/1

Sports Winner
Remain 1.10
Leave 6.50

Betfair
Remain 1/9
Leave 6/1

Unibet
Remain 1.11
Leave 6.50

Marathon Bet
Remain 9/100
Leave 32/5

Betfair Exchange
("Back all" odds)
Remain 1.14
Leave 7.8

Betdaq
("Back all" odds)
Remain 1.14
Leave 7.6

Matchbook
Remain 1.128
Leave 7.3

[Admiral Yi]

From the day of the vote. Full disclaimer, I don't understand odds:

<snip>

Jimminy Cricket!

[Sheilbh]

Explain please - as I said I don't understand odds

[Admiral Yi]

Explain please - as I said I don't understand odds

First one gave 1/9 on Remain.  That means you bet 9 quid (gov'nor) to win 1.  That implies a remain probability of 90%, if I remember the math correctly.

11/2 on Exit.  You bet 2 to win 11.  Implied probability of 15%.

Adds up to higher than 100%, so either my math is off or that's taken care of by the house rake.

As you can see, the betting market got it spectacularly wrong.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting. What's really striking about that is that the polls generally got it right. So it was an odd case of punters betting against the information they had.

[Razgovory]

Well, if Trump loses Pennsylvania it means Hillary stole it.  He's currently 10 points behind in that state.  I'm beginning to think Trump might be a pathological liar.  He can't help but spin tales.  His bizarre statements don't seem to serve any discernible purpose.

[dps]

Explain please - as I said I don't understand odds

First one gave 1/9 on Remain.  That means you bet 9 quid (gov'nor) to win 1.  That implies a remain probability of 90%, if I remember the math correctly.

11/2 on Exit.  You bet 2 to win 11.  Implied probability of 15%.

Adds up to higher than 100%, so either my math is off or that's taken care of by the house rake.

As you can see, the betting market got it spectacularly wrong.

Did they?  Did the bookies lose money on the bets?  'Cause the betting line isn't supposed to be predictive, per se, it's supposed to be a mechanism to get equal amounts of bets placed on each of the 2 possible outcomes.

[Gups]

Explain please - as I said I don't understand odds

First one gave 1/9 on Remain.  That means you bet 9 quid (gov'nor) to win 1.  That implies a remain probability of 90%, if I remember the math correctly.

11/2 on Exit.  You bet 2 to win 11.  Implied probability of 15%.

Adds up to higher than 100%, so either my math is off or that's taken care of by the house rake.

As you can see, the betting market got it spectacularly wrong.

Did they?  Did the bookies lose money on the bets?  'Cause the betting line isn't supposed to be predictive, per se, it's supposed to be a mechanism to get equal amounts of bets placed on each of the 2 possible outcomes.

Yi said the betting market got it wrong, not the bookies.

[PJL]

My money is on the bookies making a nice profit on Brexit winning. They tend to lose money if favourites win.

[Admiral Yi]

Yi said the betting market got it wrong, not the bookies.

shazaam

You gamble Guppy?

[DGuller]

Explain please - as I said I don't understand odds

First one gave 1/9 on Remain.  That means you bet 9 quid (gov'nor) to win 1.  That implies a remain probability of 90%, if I remember the math correctly.

11/2 on Exit.  You bet 2 to win 11.  Implied probability of 15%.

Adds up to higher than 100%, so either my math is off or that's taken care of by the house rake.

As you can see, the betting market got it spectacularly wrong.

That is an overly ambitious statement.  How do you know that the probability of Brexit wasn't 15%?  Events that have 15% likelihood still happen one time out of seven.