2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Valmy]

Shelf, you seem to be using party base as a synonymous with people who voted in this year's primaries, which I don't think is accurate.

That may be true as well.

[Sheilbh]

Shelf, you seem to be using party base as a synonymous with people who voted in this year's primaries, which I don't think is accurate.

What do you mean?

[Sheilbh]

What?

Read it if you want

https://www.texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PERM-PLATFORM.pdf

Not really. Can you give me a precis?

[Valmy]

Not really. Can you give me a precis?

Umm...sure. Withdraw from the United Nations and globalization treaties and organizations of every kind (like NAFTA, the WTO, the IMF), anti-Federal paranoia, anti-immigrant stuff, states rights, and so forth.

[Sheilbh]

Not really. Can you give me a precis?

Umm...sure. Withdraw from the United Nations and globalization treaties and organizations of every kind (like NAFTA, the WTO, the IMF), anti-Federal paranoia, anti-immigrant stuff, states rights, and so forth.

Okay none of that's what I meant.

You have a party whose base is increasingly lower and middle class. The Democrats have become the McGovern coalition of college kids and minorities plus a sprinkling of the comfortably successful urbanites. Despite this the GOP's policy offer has remained sort-of Jack Kemp with, as each cycle comes round, decreasing levels of sunny optimism. Their main policies continue to be that tax cuts solve everything (when in fact they mainly help the GOP's donors). I think it's a shame W was so incompetent and discredited because it isn't a coincidence that the only Republican in the past 25 years to not just win the Presidency but to win the popular vote (once) was a big government conservative who, especially initially, wanted to talk a lot more about education reform and the soft bigotry of low expectations rather than entitlement reform (God the number of Republican think tankers who'll be saying the reason no-one could beat Trump was because they didn't talk enough about abolishing social security ).

They need to start with an economic policy that actually helps middle/working class people (and though I do him down Ryan has been doing some interesting stuff on this). Then they need to go from there. Immigration is part of it, it does interest me that that's the real bit of the culture war that motivated so many votes - but I don't know what you do with that. But I agree with OvB lots of descendants of immigrants don't care that much about immigration but do care about things like healthcare and tax cuts and social security - I think you have to start with the economic policy and then build the program up from that. As I say these are the voters Reihan Salam and Ross Douthat were writing about 12 years ago being under-represented in the GOP policy offer (though they recognised Bush did some good on that front) and nothing has changed.

[Admiral Yi]

What do you mean?

I mean when I hear the term base I think of people who vote in primaries all the time, who vote reliably for the same party, who contact their representatives about issues, and who because of their shared values exert disproportionate influence on the nomination process and policy.

[Sheilbh]

Okay. I mean it as a party's core support - not the sort of politically very engaged 1% of a party. So more likely to vote in primaries than the average voter and the reliable base of support most elections. But not necessarily the type to do any actual political activity like contacting reps or campaigning.

[Admiral Yi]

So more likely to vote in primaries than the average voter and the reliable base of support most elections.

How well do you think this describes the typical Trump supporter?

[Sheilbh]

How well do you think this describes the typical Trump supporter?

Reasonably well. A little bit less educated, a little bit older than the average Republican voter but not a million miles away.

You?

[Admiral Yi]

Reasonably well. A little bit less educated, a little bit older than the average Republican voter but not a million miles away.

You?

I think there's overlap with the MA SECOND AMENDMENT demographic, which is part of the base.  From what I've read he got a lot of white ethnic Reagan Democrats, who are not necessarily dependable Republican voters at all.  My personal hunch (based on very limited data) is he also picked up the young white meathead vote, perhaps new to politics.

[Legbiter]

You have a party whose base is increasingly lower and middle class. The Democrats have become the McGovern coalition of college kids and minorities plus a sprinkling of the comfortably successful urbanites. Despite this the GOP's policy offer has remained sort-of Jack Kemp with, as each cycle comes round, decreasing levels of sunny optimism. Their main policies continue to be that tax cuts solve everything (when in fact they mainly help the GOP's donors).

Yep and plenty of the American Languishbrahs here have pointed this out for years now in their more lucid moments. Whether Trump wins or not the GOP will realign with their base on economics and immigration.

[Valmy]

Yep and plenty of the American Languishbrahs here have pointed this out for years now in their more lucid moments. Whether Trump wins or not the GOP will realign with their base on economics and immigration.

We'll see.

[Sheilbh]

Reasonably well. A little bit less educated, a little bit older than the average Republican voter but not a million miles away.

You?

I think there's overlap with the MA SECOND AMENDMENT demographic, which is part of the base.  From what I've read he got a lot of white ethnic Reagan Democrats, who are not necessarily dependable Republican voters at all.  My personal hunch (based on very limited data) is he also picked up the young white meathead vote, perhaps new to politics.

What's your theory for how he won if his support is mainly distinct from the base? Sort-of Corbyn-style selectorate entryists?

[Martinus]

Not really. Can you give me a precis?

Umm...sure. Withdraw from the United Nations and globalization treaties and organizations of every kind (like NAFTA, the WTO, the IMF), anti-Federal paranoia, anti-immigrant stuff, states rights, and so forth.

Okay none of that's what I meant.

You have a party whose base is increasingly lower and middle class. The Democrats have become the McGovern coalition of college kids and minorities plus a sprinkling of the comfortably successful urbanites. Despite this the GOP's policy offer has remained sort-of Jack Kemp with, as each cycle comes round, decreasing levels of sunny optimism. Their main policies continue to be that tax cuts solve everything (when in fact they mainly help the GOP's donors). I think it's a shame W was so incompetent and discredited because it isn't a coincidence that the only Republican in the past 25 years to not just win the Presidency but to win the popular vote (once) was a big government conservative who, especially initially, wanted to talk a lot more about education reform and the soft bigotry of low expectations rather than entitlement reform (God the number of Republican think tankers who'll be saying the reason no-one could beat Trump was because they didn't talk enough about abolishing social security ).

They need to start with an economic policy that actually helps middle/working class people (and though I do him down Ryan has been doing some interesting stuff on this). Then they need to go from there. Immigration is part of it, it does interest me that that's the real bit of the culture war that motivated so many votes - but I don't know what you do with that. But I agree with OvB lots of descendants of immigrants don't care that much about immigration but do care about things like healthcare and tax cuts and social security - I think you have to start with the economic policy and then build the program up from that. As I say these are the voters Reihan Salam and Ross Douthat were writing about 12 years ago being under-represented in the GOP policy offer (though they recognised Bush did some good on that front) and nothing has changed.

But doesn't Trump actually do that? A lot of his stances, from immigration, to international trade/globalism, to anti-corporatism seems to be an expression of these sentiments. Yes, he is hamfisted and megalomaniac, but he is representing this kind of big government populist "conservatism" that you talk about - which is partially why he is attacked so viciously by the elites.

My point is that this sentiment will not disappear if he is defeated - quite the contrary. America will have its "Brexit" vote sooner or later, and while Trump is a bufoon, I think he could at least be somewhat controllable as the POTUS - the next election cycle's candidate will be worse.

[mongers]

Hey, has Trump just gone 24 hours without saying something either stupid or obnoxious?