2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Admiral Yi]

He's crushed Jeb and crushed Carson. Who's to say that he can't crush Rubio or Cruz?

He's already taken shots against Rubio; Marco was his second target after J.E.B. IIRC.

[The Minsky Moment]

He's crushed Jeb and crushed Carson. Who's to say that he can't crush Rubio or Cruz?

He's already taken shots against Rubio; Marco was his second target after J.E.B. IIRC.

Yeah Trump has spent weeks and oceans of twitter copy hitting at Rubio -- voting record, finances, sweating, hair - doesn't seem to have an effect.

Trump's negatives are pretty high and stable and they are really high among identified independents who might tip into the GOP primaries if the race gets interesting.  There are a significant number of GOP voters who will vote anything but, and I suspect a lot of them were former Carson voters that have gone to Cruz and Rubio,

[Berkut]

One thing kind of interesting about Trump from a strategic/political perspective is that he is unique among Republican voters as a potential candidate who might get otherwise "anyone but a democrat" voters to either vote Dem or not vote at all.

His negatives are incredibly potent.

[DGuller]

One thing kind of interesting about Trump from a strategic/political perspective is that he is unique among Republican voters as a potential candidate who might get otherwise "anyone but a democrat" voters to either vote Dem or not vote at all.

His negatives are incredibly potent.

They are, but they've been so much more potent when he started out.  Hopefully that progression will stop.

[The Minsky Moment]

His negatives among independents have increased since the summer, now above 60%.  That is bad news for a general election run.

[DGuller]

His negatives among independents have increased since the summer, now above 60%.  That is bad news for a general election run.

Good, but not sufficiently reassuring.  This guy has defied political gravity so far, I'm not so sure it'll finally kick in in general (should he get there, of course).  Yes, there is a lot of ugliness in GOP voters to appeal to, but they don't hold the monopoly on ugly views.  All it takes to cancel out the negative in a person is one offensive statement that strikes a chord.

[Berkut]

His negatives among independents have increased since the summer, now above 60%.  That is bad news for a general election run.

I am not just talking about the numbers of negative, but the potency of it.

Rubio, for example, might have republicans who don't like him, and hence he might be technically negative, but they aren't going to actually jump ship if he gets the nomination. Even Cruz.

Trump/Carson? The people who don't like them don't like them to the extent that I think many otherwise "die hard" Republicans would actually either not show up, or even jump ship.

[KRonn]

Part of the reason that some Repubs will jump ship, including especially some of the big players, is because Trump and Carson speak out heavily against Washington politics, the systemic corruption, government bloat/bureaucracy being so out of control, and much, much more. And all that resonates very well with a very disgusted part of the electorate, no matter which party. These candidates aren't taking big money, the establishment money, or going along with the establishment, Trump especially. And all that is seriously rocking the establishment boat and the lock they have on the way things are done and how it favors them. The powers to be do not like that at all. Cruz is also in the same boat but being lower in the polls he's been more under the radar but I figure the same dynamic will be with him in time if he surges.

[jimmy olsen]

Latest NH poll by PPP

Donald Trump - 27%
Ted Cruz - 13%
Marco Rubio - 11%
Chris Christie - 10%
Ben Carson - 9%
John Kasich - 8%
Carly Fiorina - 6%
Jeb! Bush - 5%
Rand Paul - 4%
Mike Huckabee - 1%
Rick Santorum - 1%
George Pataki - 1%
Lindsey Graham - 0%
Happy Gilmore - 0%

[Habbaku]

I assume that's just Republicans?  I really thought higher of the New England GOP.   

[Eddie Teach]

Latest NH poll by PPP

Happy Gilmore - 0%

Very professional of them. 

[Admiral Yi]

Ben Carson - 9%

buh-bye

[Eddie Teach]

Ben Carson - 9%

buh-bye

It's just New Hampshire.

[jimmy olsen]

I assume that's just Republicans?  I really thought higher of the New England GOP.   

Yeah, it's a poll of primary voters

[Razgovory]

Part of the reason that some Repubs will jump ship, including especially some of the big players, is because Trump and Carson speak out heavily against Washington politics, the systemic corruption, government bloat/bureaucracy being so out of control, and much, much more.

It's a shame the systemic corruption, government out out of control thing was actually true.  Anyone who thinks that needs to get dropped in Mozambique for a month.