2016 elections - because it's never too early

[jimmy olsen]

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/24/donald-trump-on-waterboarding-even-if-it-doesnt-work-they-deserve-it

Donald Trump touted the benefits of waterboarding in a campaign rally on Monday night, telling a crowd that "you bet your ass" he would bring it back into use.

Addressing thousands of people in Columbus, Ohio, the Republican frontrunner praised waterboarding, an interrogation method that has been called torture. "I would approve more than that," he said.

Trump told supporters: "Would I approve waterboarding? You bet your ass I would. In a heartbeat. I would approve more than that. It works."

The Republican frontrunner then added "... and if it doesn't work, they deserve it anyway for what they do to us".

[Legbiter]

[jimmy olsen]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/24/this-chart-explains-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-state-of-politics-today/

This chart explains everything you need to know about the dismal state of politics today

Chris Cillizza November 24 at 1:23 PM    


The Pew Research Center released a massive poll Monday detailing how Americans view their government. The short answer? Not well.

One chart in the reams of awesome data stood out as a terrific lens through which to understand the current state of our politics — particularly the Republican presidential race. Here it is:


Less than one in five people (19 percent) say they trust the government to do what is right "always" or "most of the time." That number has been in steady decline almost since the question was first asked in 1958; at the time, three quarters of the public (73 percent) thought they could trust the government to do the right thing most or all of the time. With occasional surges in the mid-1980s and then again in the early 2000s — almost entirely attributable to the rally-around-the-flag effect in the wake of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — the trajectory on trust has been almost exclusively downward over the past five and a half decades.

If 80 percent (or so) of the American people have little or no faith in their government and their elected officials to make the right choices most of the time, it's clear that the system isn't working. And it's not hard to understand why voters — on the left and the right — would be drawn to candidates who put blowing up that system at the heart of their campaigns.

Dig deeper into the Pew poll and you understand why Bernie Sanders appears to have reached a ceiling of sorts in the Democratic primary contest while Donald Trump continues to confound his critics by leading the GOP race. Here's that same chart above but broken down by party:

Two things: 1) Republicans' trust in government yo-yo's depending on whose in office far more than Democrats. Republicans trust government more when a Republican president is in the White House; Democrats, generally, trust government roughly equally no matter which party controls the White House and 2) Republican trust in government is at an all-time low with just 13 percent currently saying they think the government makes the right decisions always or most of the time. Compare that to 25 percent of Republicans who said the same during the eight years Bill Clinton was in office and you begin to grasp the depth and the historic nature of Republican discontent.

Looking at that chart, you also begin to grasp why Trump has found such fertile ground for his message that everything and everyone in Washington is corrupt and terrible and needs to be gotten rid of.  And, distrust in government is only a piece of the broader puzzle that Trump appears to have solved.

Virtually every institution -- from government to banks to the church to media -- is at or near a historic low point in terms of the trust Americans have in them. Why? The collapse of the economy amid the bank collapse of the last decade. September 11.  The Catholic church sex scandal. A government shutdown.

Add it all up and the sense that the institutions we have always depended on are no longer so dependable becomes pervasive. The safety net is gone. The old ways of doing things no longer work but no new way of doing things has emerged.

People react differently to that new normal but usually it's some combination of fear, anxiety and anger. That can be a very toxic mixture in the context of a political campaign in which candidates are doing their best to convince people to vote for them based on a demonstrated ability to empathize/channel how they are feeling.

Most candidates seek to acknowledge those frustrations and fears while trying to quickly pivot toward a more optimistic message along the lines of "We can do this. We always have." Trump represents a break with that approach. His strategy is to not only acknowledge the negative feelings coursing through the public but to stoke them. Trump's message, boiled down, is "You're angry. You should be angry. I am angry too. We shouldn't get less angry. What we should do is use that anger to take back the country we love."

It's a message that is uniquely well suited to our troubled times. When you don't believe or trust almost anyone or anything, a man willing to say exactly what he thinks at all times and damn the torpedoes is very very appealing.

Simply put: Donald Trump is the living breathing manifestation of where much of the country is right now. He is a mirror held up to all of us.

[Phillip V]

Cruz is now threatening to win Iowa.  That would give him enough momentum to get a solid second or above in New Hampshire.

Rubio has to go aggressive this December against Cruz and Trump as Carson fades.

[garbon]

Silly.

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/hillary-clinton-says-it-was-a-poor-choice-of-190030383.html

Clinton promises never to say 'illegal immigrants' again

Hillary Clinton addressed criticism of her use of the phrase "illegal immigrants" in a Facebook chat hosted by the Spanish-language television network Telemundo on Tuesday.

The Democratic presidential frontrunner said it was a "poor choice of words" and vowed not to use the same language in the future.

Clinton used the term at a campaign event in New Hampshire earlier this month when she was asked her thoughts on securing the border with Mexico to prevent undocumented immigrants from coming over. She responded by referring to her support for a border fence as a member of the U.S. Senate from January 2001 until early 2009.

"Look, I voted numerous times when I was a senator to spend money to build a barrier to try to prevent illegal immigrants from coming in. And I do think you have to control your borders," Clinton said.

Clinton's comments drew criticism from pro-immigration advocates who prefer the term "undocumented immigrants." She was asked about the phrase in the Facebook chat on Tuesday by Jose Antonio Vargas, an activist whose group is mounting a campaign called "#WordsMatter" to get presidential candidates to promise not to use the phrase "illegal immigrants."

"On behalf of the organization I founded, Define American, and the 11.7 million undocumented immigrants in this country — including myself — I am asking all the presidential candidates to recognize that #wordsmatter by committing to not using the term 'illegal' when referencing the undocumented population. Will you make that commitment?" Vargas asked.

Clinton agreed to stop saying "illegal immigrants" and pointed to her support for immigration reform.

"Yes, I will. That was a poor choice of words. As I've said throughout this campaign, the people at the heart of this issue are children, parents, families, DREAMers. They have names, and hopes and dreams that deserve to be respected," Clinton wrote, adding, "I've talked about undocumented immigrants hundreds of times and fought for years for comprehensive immigration reform. And I will continue to do so. We are a country built by immigrants and our diversity makes us stronger as a nation — it's something to be proud of, celebrate, and defend."

Over the course of her campaign, Clinton has promised to go beyond President Obama's executive actions that shielded about 4 million undocumented immigrants from deportation.

In an email to Yahoo News, Vargas said he is "hopeful" Clinton will stand by her pledge.

"I am hopeful that Hillary Clinton will stand by her word. And I am hopeful that her fellow candidates, from both parties, will make the same pledge. Words matter," Vargas said.

Vargas, who noted that he has participated in over 400 events around the country since launching his group in 2011, went on to explain his objection to the term "illegal immigrant."

"To many Americans I talk to, 'illegal' has become synonymous with 'Mexican,' as if all undocumented people are from Mexico (they are not — I'm from the Philippines), as if all of Latin America is Mexico (it is not), as if there is something wrong with being Mexican," Vargas said. "Those words are offensive and hurtful. Words Matter because words and phrases like 'illegals,' 'illegal aliens,' and 'illegal immigrants' frame the conversation, how politicians talk about the issue, and inevitably how policies are created."

During the Telemundo Facebook chat, Clinton was also asked her reaction to Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane. Turkish officials have said the plane, which was participating in strikes over Syria, violated their airspace. Clinton did not answer that question.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I have to say, Trump so far seems to be a political genius.  Every time he does something that makes the talking heads again get their shovels out to dig his grave, his poll numbers actually do the opposite.  Of course, he could just be a poker player who goes all-in every hand.  It'll keep working until it doesn't.

Is it me, or are his mannerisms and body language on the stump, familiar?

one of Joey Tribbiani's best acts that...

[Admiral Yi]

Clinton promises never to say 'illegal immigrants' again

[DGuller]

Euphemism treadmill keeps your political correctness in good shape.

[Eddie Teach]

"To many Americans I talk to, 'illegal' has become synonymous with 'Mexican,' as if all undocumented people are from Mexico (they are not — I'm from the Philippines), as if all of Latin America is Mexico (it is not), as if there is something wrong with being Mexican," Vargas said. "Those words are offensive and hurtful. Words Matter because words and phrases like 'illegals,' 'illegal aliens,' and 'illegal immigrants' frame the conversation, how politicians talk about the issue, and inevitably how policies are created."

This is bullshit and he knows it. His problem with the word "illegal" is the connotation of doing something wrong, not that it's somehow Mexico-centric.

[Admiral Yi]

This is bullshit and he knows it. His problem with the word "illegal" is the connotation of doing something wrong, not that it's somehow Mexico-centric.

Yeah, that part was nonsense.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, and in the past during his long business career in which he was often in the spotlight, Trump had various occasions on which he was interviewed on his politics. Most of those interviews expressed not only moderate ideas, but sometimes very liberal ones. He was a registered Democrat I believe until 2000 or so, and was in favor of a lot of lefty stuff before then.

Romney had a similar "skeleton in his closet" with his prior pro-choice and liberal Republican positions from his past in Massachusetts politics, and it was used often against him in the primary. That hasn't happened with Trump, at least not successfully, I think in part because Trump has immediately started spewing such populist far right stuff that anyone trying to "taint him" with the liberal label just get laughed out. I mean to the typical conservative Republican voter, calling a guy who wants to ban Muslims from coming into the country, build a wall on the Mexican border (and force Mexico to pay for it) and various other things liberal just isn't going to work. They aren't going to read between the lines which suggest Trump is an opportunist with shaky or minimal real positions on most issues, just playing to their base instincts.

But he was called on it in the beginning.  Remember when Republican conspiracy theorists asserted he was a planted in the race to make the Republicans look foolish and distract from the problems of the Democrats.  That line doesn't work so well now that he is being taken seriously by a large percentage of Republican voters.  I can only hope that the conspiracy theorists were correct and at some point Trump is going to reveal that it really was a joke all along.

[Admiral Yi]

Read in an Atlantic article about Bill de Blasio that 24% of Americans self identify as liberal and 38% self identify as conservative.

[jimmy olsen]

Will Smith is thinking of running for office.

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/nov/25/will-smith-may-enter-politics-in-near-future

[MadImmortalMan]

Now, there's a guy who knows how to crack down on illegal aliens.

[dps]

Most candidates seek to acknowledge those frustrations and fears while trying to quickly pivot toward a more optimistic message along the lines of "We can do this. We always have." Trump represents a break with that approach. His strategy is to not only acknowledge the negative feelings coursing through the public but to stoke them. Trump's message, boiled down, is "You're angry. You should be angry. I am angry too. We shouldn't get less angry. What we should do is use that anger to take back the country we love."

It's a message that is uniquely well suited to our troubled times. When you don't believe or trust almost anyone or anything, a man willing to say exactly what he thinks at all times and damn the torpedoes is very very appealing

Yeah, I think that this pretty much nails it.  It's not so much that potential Republican primary voters agree with Trump's policy positions, it's that they think he emphasizes with their frustrations and anxieties.  Not really that different than Bill Clinton riding "He feels your pain" to the White House.