2016 elections - because it's never too early

[DGuller]

Religious right is to narrow.

Yes.

The latest paper by the newly Nobelled (Riksbanked) Angus Deaton got a lot of press today.  The headline finding is that death rates for US whites from age 45-54 have been *increasing* over the last 10 years (while declining elsewhere in the OECD).  Rivers may not be cried over this but there is something real at work here.  Whatever it is, it's not a huge surprise that there seems to be a lot of anger coming from middle aged whites and that it seems to be bleeding over into political expression in dysfunctional ways.

I think the reason for such patterns is rather obvious if you take a look at the average American white male age 45-54.  From far enough back, just to see the whole picture.

[Jacob]

I think the reason for such patterns is rather obvious if you take a look at the average American white male age 45-54.  From far enough back, just to see the whole picture.

What do you mean?

[Berkut]

I think the reason for such patterns is rather obvious if you take a look at the average American white male age 45-54.  From far enough back, just to see the whole picture.

What do you mean?

Take a couple more steps back...

[Valmy]

Their white privilege got them into too many high powered and high stress jobs?

[Jacob]

I think the reason for such patterns is rather obvious if you take a look at the average American white male age 45-54.  From far enough back, just to see the whole picture.

What do you mean?

Take a couple more steps back...

[The Brain]

Religious right is to narrow.

Yes.

The latest paper by the newly Nobelled (Riksbanked) Angus Deaton got a lot of press today.  The headline finding is that death rates for US whites from age 45-54 have been *increasing* over the last 10 years (while declining elsewhere in the OECD).  Rivers may not be cried over this but there is something real at work here.  Whatever it is, it's not a huge surprise that there seems to be a lot of anger coming from middle aged whites and that it seems to be bleeding over into political expression in dysfunctional ways.

I'm watching you, and don't you forget it.

[DGuller]

I think the reason for such patterns is rather obvious if you take a look at the average American white male age 45-54.  From far enough back, just to see the whole picture.

What do you mean?

Take a couple more steps back...

[Admiral Yi]

What do you mean?

Fat

[Jacob]

What do you mean?

Fat

Right!

Thanks

[lustindarkness]

What do you mean?

Fat

You called?

[Valmy]

I was not aware that particular demographic had weight problems more severe than the other demographics.

[The Brain]

I don't see fat.

[crazy canuck]

I'm starting to wonder whether the vaunted resistance to change built into the American system is in fact a bug and not a feature that leads to extremism.  People become more extreme when they don't have the real power to effect any changes. 

That is actually an interesting idea.

I was talking about this last night with a friend - how the religious right has become so radicalized in America.

And to be fair, if you are a religious right nutjob, it has to be incredibly frustrating. On every issue, over time, they just lose, lose, lose, lose, lose. Forever.

Gay marriage. Science. Evolution. Religious participation, for that matter. It is just a never ending series of failures. Their victories are, in almost all cases, completely tactical. Minor battle wins while the war is decisively lost.

That has to get kind of infuriating, and I suspect leads to the "Fuck it, lets burn the entire thing down" kind of politics that you see the Tea Party embrace, where they are willing to (for example) allow the US government to actually default rather than give a nickel to Planned Parenthood - even if it is absolutely clear that this is NOT the will of the people.

I can't emphasize enough how alarming I find this idea - that it is acceptable, even demanded, that since some Tea Party candidate represents people who don't want to fund Planned Parenthood (which in and of itself is a valid political stance per se), it is reasonable for them to attempt to hold the actual governance of the nation in every realm hostage to try to force their minority viewpoint.

I mean, this is obviously not at all rational - if 15% of the population has the right to refuse to govern based on some issue, surely the 85% has that same right?

But this extremism, this crazy ass radicalism that is, in its form, no different from the most extreme version of any other ideological or religious radicalism (it just manifests in a different manner than overt violence), has come from somewhere. Our system of government seems to give them no outlet other than obstinacy.

The hard right has been losing those battles - and even worse - in Canada though. Even when the PM in power was originally from a breakaway hard-right "Reform" party, and was in power for a decade, they kept losing those same battles.

Same here.The (very socially conservative) minister of Justice quit recently because he couldn't get his restrictive abortion reform passed, even though the conservative PP party has a comfortable majority in parliament.

The religious right made an huge fuss of reverting several social reforms (gay marriage, easier abortion, speedier divorce) that the left implemented in the 2000s, but they have found they lack the political and social capital to do so once the conservatives are in power. They keep losing all culture wars, but they don't seem to be able to stir the pot anymore, besides angry sermons.

Yeah, I think extremism does lend itself to the American model of government.  There is no such thing as a government losing confidence votes and so there is no incentive to elect members to a government that can actually govern. 

[crazy canuck]

I was not aware that particular demographic had weight problems more severe than the other demographics.

But it is probably the demographic where being fat all their lives starts to kill them off in increasingly large numbers.

[DGuller]

I was not aware that particular demographic had weight problems more severe than the other demographics.

It doesn't have to.  We're talking about changes, so the starting points matter.  The other demographics may be catching up to the other advantages that while middle-aged males already had, which could be offsetting the bursting bulges.  As for the age part of it, the middle age is where you would expect the Type 2 diabetes generation to start dropping like flies.