2016 elections - because it's never too early

[DGuller]

There is uncertainty there, true, but you can only bend away from fundamentals so much.

[Admiral Yi]

Any bets on the Republican primary?

Depends on what you're offering.

[Eddie Teach]

Lindsay Graham loses SC primary.

[DGuller]

Any bets on the Republican primary?

Depends on what you're offering.

I'm going to bet that someone other than Trump or Carson wins Iowa, at even odds.

[jimmy olsen]

Any bets on the Republican primary?

Depends on what you're offering.

I'm going to bet that someone other than Trump or Carson wins Iowa, at even odds.

I don't internet gamble, but I guarantee you that Carson is going to win Iowa.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm going to bet that someone other than Trump or Carson wins Iowa, at even odds.

No deal.  I expect the Trump vote to stay home and get drunk, and I expect most GOP caucusers will line up behind the highest ranking "establishment candidate."

[Admiral Yi]

I don't internet gamble, but I guarantee you that Carson is going to win Iowa.

You guaranteed that Israel would bomb the fuck out of Iran about 5 years ago, and repeated it every six months.

[DGuller]

I'm going to bet that someone other than Trump or Carson wins Iowa, at even odds.

No deal.  I expect the Trump vote to stay home and get drunk, and I expect most GOP caucusers will line up behind the highest ranking "establishment candidate."

What probability do you assign to this outcome then?  I can get on the other side of the bet if you're much more than 50% sure of this.

[DGuller]

I don't internet gamble, but I guarantee you that Carson is going to win Iowa.

Anyone can guarantee anything when the money is not on the line.  Money tends to dissolve bullshit rather nicely, even rather nominal amounts.

[Admiral Yi]

What probability do you assign to this outcome then?  I can get on the other side of the bet if you're much more than 50% sure of this.

I could offer 6/5.

[DGuller]

What probability do you assign to this outcome then?  I can get on the other side of the bet if you're much more than 50% sure of this.

I could offer 6/5.

Not good enough.  Iowa did vote for Huckabee last time around when everyone knew full well he was going nowhere, so Carson is definitely a possibility, but not a 45% possibility IMO.  I can take the short bus duo at 2/1, but not any higher.

[Jaron]

I hope this is the beginning of the end for Trump. I am not completely convinced he is serious about his run, but the amount of conservative tears will be simply delicious once he drops out.


Should he get the nomination, I am not sure that he has a chance to win. He'll lock up the GOP vote for sure and the right wing loves him, but I do not believe he has the appeal to the moderates or left to win the presidency.

All bets being fair, the Clintons are going back to the White House in 2016.

[Tonitrus]

Trump has hinted, even recently, about pushing for single-payer healthcare.  That might draw in some lefties.

[Admiral Yi]

Not good enough.  Iowa did vote for Huckabee last time around when everyone knew full well he was going nowhere, so Carson is definitely a possibility, but not a 45% possibility IMO.  I can take the short bus duo at 2/1, but not any higher.

I could go 3/2.  You owe me.  I gave you dumbass odds on McCain because I had a woodie for the guy.  You knew that, but you took my money anyway.  Give me a little payback to keep the karma balanced.

edit:  That's it!  Eureka! I was wondering all night what the second thing I learned at the Kennedy School was.  It's How to Bargain with Jews.

The first thing I learned, if you're curious, was when in doubt, over-introduce.

[Admiral Yi]

Trump has hinted, even recently, about pushing for single-payer healthcare.  That might draw in some lefties.

No fucking chance.