Rich get richer as economy gets better; everyone else is worse off

[mongers]

Did anyone predict the conversation would go like this?

It was entirely predictable, nay inevitable that a languish thread, as it lengthens, resolves into a debate about semantics and word-meaning.   

[crazy canuck]

This is truly a strange experience.

I say stuff, but really, I might as well save the electrons.

I thought you should have stopped repeating yourself after the fourth time it became clear they were not actually reading what you wrote.

[crazy canuck]

Did anyone predict the conversation would go like this?

It was entirely predictable, nay inevitable that a languish thread, as it lengthens, resolves into a debate about semantics and word-meaning.   

Are you trying to say the odds of this happening increased because this is languish or that this is languish and so it was a certainty?

[mongers]

Did anyone predict the conversation would go like this?

It was entirely predictable, nay inevitable that a languish thread, as it lengthens, resolves into a debate about semantics and word-meaning.   

Are you trying to say the odds of this happening increased because this is languish or that this is languish and so it was a certainty?

Ambiguity is a bitch, isn't it. 

[Malthus]

This is truly a strange experience.

I say stuff, but really, I might as well save the electrons.

I thought you should have stopped repeating yourself after the fourth time it became clear they were not actually reading what you wrote.

You are right. 

[DGuller]

Right. And what, Mr. Mathematics, have I said about his "risk factor" in my statement?

That it has "increased" because of his drinking.

As you yourself put it,

That his risk factor increased is foreseeable.  There is no uncertainty about that.

So, exactly what are you basing your "you have confused risk factor with outcome" on? Please, do tell.

Garbon asked you about predictable outcome, you answered with predictable increased risk factors.  So let's at least establish that both these terms were in play.

What the difference between risk factors and outcome?  Risk factor increase can indeed be very predictable.  If you put a second bullet in the revolver, your risk factor is doubled for the game of Russian Roulette.

Outcome has an element of chance in it, which very often is a huge part of the equation.  Most of the outcome of the drunk driver's trip is due to chance, or factors we can't measure/understand and thus assume to be chance.  That makes the bad outcome for a single trip not very predictable, even with a vastly increased risk factor.

[The Brain]

Exactly how drunk are we talking about? I think your model fails at Ide levels.

[crazy canuck]

Exactly how drunk are we talking about? I think your model fails at Ide levels.

[DGuller]

This is truly a strange experience.

I say stuff, but really, I might as well save the electrons.

I thought you should have stopped repeating yourself after the fourth time it became clear they were not actually reading what you wrote.

Any reason why you didn't quote the post where Malthus confirmed that he indeed meant what I thought he meant all the way in the beginning, and that what he meant was in fact wrong?  I'm not surprised that Malthus ignored that post, the best play he has left is to not draw attention to it and pretend that I'm hardheaded moron, but the motivation behind your selective reading is a little more puzzling.

[DGuller]

What I said ... well, I've said it a million times already: that the lack of asset diversification increased the risk of the actual outcome seen here in a way that was, or ought to have been, foreseeable.

Oh, but it didn't increase the risk of the actual outcome.  As I was repeatedly trying to say, diversification doesn't affect the chance of one portfolio growing more than another portfolio.

Here it is again.

[crazy canuck]

This is truly a strange experience.

I say stuff, but really, I might as well save the electrons.

I thought you should have stopped repeating yourself after the fourth time it became clear they were not actually reading what you wrote.

Any reason why you didn't quote the post where Malthus confirmed that he indeed meant what I thought he meant all the way in the beginning, and that what he meant was in fact wrong?  I'm not surprised that Malthus ignored that post, the best play he has left is to not draw attention to it and pretend that I'm hardheaded moron, but the motivation behind your selective reading is a little more puzzling.

I wasnt pretending.  You seem to have some pretty firm blinders affixed on this one.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Well I'm glad one of the few potentially interesting economics threads on Languish in awhile is now just DGuller and Malthus arguing about the word predictable.

FWIW, I think such an outcome here was highly predictable.

[DGuller]

This is truly a strange experience.

I say stuff, but really, I might as well save the electrons.

I thought you should have stopped repeating yourself after the fourth time it became clear they were not actually reading what you wrote.

Any reason why you didn't quote the post where Malthus confirmed that he indeed meant what I thought he meant all the way in the beginning, and that what he meant was in fact wrong?  I'm not surprised that Malthus ignored that post, the best play he has left is to not draw attention to it and pretend that I'm hardheaded moron, but the motivation behind your selective reading is a little more puzzling.

I wasnt pretending.  You seem to have some pretty firm blinders affixed on this one.

And again you ignore the part that kind of contradicts everything you wrote.  Yes, Malthus did repeat himself a lot, but as it turns out I did in fact understand everything that he was saying correctly, and what he repeated was in fact based on a misconception.

[DGuller]

Kind of telling that as soon as the pair of Canadian lawyers realize that they're on the losing side of the argument, they just slink away, parting with the claims of me being an obstinate moron who can't read, rather than with concessions.  Oh, well, if Yi was correct in another thread a couple of days ago, it's just karma for me. 

[crazy canuck]

lol, ever occur to you that people realize you just arent listening...