Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[LaCroix]

I've said this before, but NK has a purely defensive mindset. aside from the occasional attacks, which is more to show that they still have teeth (and maybe for domestic consumption), NK won't start a war. "next test launch is really a surprise attack" makes no sense whatsoever. why would NK ever launch a surprise nuclear attack, when everyone in NK knows such an attack would mean the entire country would be obliterated. NK is building its nuclear arsenal as an additional measure to prevent outside attack + negotiation purposes. not that the west is going to randomly attack NK, but NK doesn't know that.

[Razgovory]

I don't think their actual attacks are for domestic consumption.  The government makes all sorts of nonsense claims about how they drive back the Americans and their running dog.  They don't need real attacks, they can (and do) just say they attacked and nobody would know the difference.  The real problem is we have no idea what they know or think.  Even the the most basic intelligence is difficult in that country.  We have no idea what the people really think about the government or the rest of the world.  We don't really know how their government is structured and who runs what and how.  Bottom line is that since their leadership is drawn from the population and the population likely has an unreliable view of the world there is a strong possibility that the much of the leadership has as similarly distorted idea of the world.  The actions of the government may not be rational and could being ultimately suicidal.

[LaCroix]

I don't think their actual attacks are for domestic consumption.  The government makes all sorts of nonsense claims about how they drive back the Americans and their running dog.  They don't need real attacks, they can (and do) just say they attacked and nobody would know the difference.  The real problem is we have no idea what they know or think.  Even the the most basic intelligence is difficult in that country.  We have no idea what the people really think about the government or the rest of the world.  We don't really know how their government is structured and who runs what and how.  Bottom line is that since their leadership is drawn from the population and the population likely has an unreliable view of the world there is a strong possibility that the much of the leadership has as similarly distorted idea of the world.  The actions of the government may not be rational and could being ultimately suicidal.

I didn't mean for the peasants, more for the top leaders. if domestic consumption is a reason, it's a much less/secondary reason.

distorted worldview or not, biology remains the same. self-preservation. NK has had opportunities to launch full scale war, and they haven't. some JSTOR academic article I read years back discussed these opportunities. now, at least a decade (and a new leader) has passed since that article's time-frame, but I don't think NK thinks it's stronger than SK+west combined. I also don't think NK believes china would back NK if it started a war -- I'm sure china has stated in very explicit terms, on many occasions, that NK is alone re: offensive wars.

[Razgovory]

We have no idea what the leadership believes, that's the thing.  Nobody really talks to them, so nobody knows.  A country that is giant Jonestown is not impossible by any means.  The extreme isolation increases this likelihood.

[Admiral Yi]

I've said this before, but NK has a purely defensive mindset. aside from the occasional attacks, which is more to show that they still have teeth (and maybe for domestic consumption), NK won't start a war. "next test launch is really a surprise attack" makes no sense whatsoever. why would NK ever launch a surprise nuclear attack, when everyone in NK knows such an attack would mean the entire country would be obliterated. NK is building its nuclear arsenal as an additional measure to prevent outside attack + negotiation purposes. not that the west is going to randomly attack NK, but NK doesn't know that.

Who are you disagreeing with?

[jimmy olsen]

I'm sure the Chinese and Japanese will just love this development.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-southkorea-polit-idUSKCN0VO0U4

Calls in South Korea for nuclear weapons as parliamentary poll looms

SEOUL  |  By Ju-min Park

A senior figure in South Korea's conservative ruling party said on Monday his country should have nuclear weapons, as concern over how to respond to rising tensions with North Korea loomed as an election issue ahead of parliamentary polls in April.

Opposition liberals have blamed President Park Geun-hye for lacking a clear strategy to deal with the North, which recently launched a long-range rocket and last month tested its fourth nuclear device.

Park plans to address parliament on Tuesday, where she will seek bipartisan support for addressing the security threat from Pyongyang, the presidential office said on Sunday.

Won Yoo-chul, floor leader for the ruling Saenuri party, on Monday said South Korea should adopt "peaceful" nuclear weapons and missiles against North Korea's "fearful and self-destructive" ones.

He said South Korea should be independent from ally Washington's so-called nuclear umbrella to deter North Korea's nuclear threat, or reconsider deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn from South Korea in 1992 under a pact for the denuclearization of the peninsula.

"We can't borrow umbrellas from next-door every time it rains. We should wear a raincoat of our own," Won said.

Defence Minister Han Min-koo later told lawmakers Seoul was not considering acquiring nuclear weapons.

A poll of 1,000 people released on Monday by the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper showed 67.7 percent favored South Korea having its own nuclear weapons. A poll released on Sunday by Yonhap news agency found 52.2 percent in favor of domestic nuclear weapons.

Calls for an independent nuclear deterrent tend to crop in South Korea during times of tension with the North.

The JoongAng Ilbo poll found 54.8 percent supported Park's decision last week to pull out of the Kaesong Industrial Complex operated jointly with North Korea, while 67.7 percent backed the plan to deploy a U.S.-run Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defense system following the rocket launch.

Park's party, which holds 157 out of 293 parliamentary seats, is expected to retain its majority in April 13 elections. Park's single five-year term expires in February of 2018.

However, a poll released by Realmeter on Monday showed Park's support rating fell to 42.2 percent in the second week of February from 42.9 percent a week earlier, while her negative ratings rose.

"During and after the Lunar New Year holidays, South and North Korea's super-hardline behavior against each other ... and political disputes over solutions to the South-North relations appear disappointing to many people," Realmeter said.


(Editing by Tony Munroe and Simon Cameron-Moore)

[LaCroix]

Who are you disagreeing with?

tim's article on the previous page

[MadImmortalMan]

I've said this before, but NK has a purely defensive mindset.

Isn't that both incredibly naive and also completely at odds with their historical actions?

[Valmy]

I'm sure the Chinese and Japanese will just love this development.

The Chinese have nobody to blame for this but themselves.

[grumbler]

Can whoever is diddly-fucking around with this thread title please knock it off?  It is incredibly rude.

[celedhring]

I'm sure the Chinese and Japanese will just love this development.

The Chinese have nobody to blame for this but themselves.

Oh, they won't have any problem finding somebody else to blame. You, probably.

[jimmy olsen]

Can whoever is diddly-fucking around with this thread title please knock it off?  It is incredibly rude.

How so?

[grumbler]

Can whoever is diddly-fucking around with this thread title please knock it off?  It is incredibly rude.

How so?

Because you are being an ass and, essentially, saying that you enjoy forcing people to figure out what the fuck you've done with a thread they were following.  It's just an another way of saying "hey, look at me, everybody!  Look at meeee!  Aren't I a clever boy?  Tell me how clever I am!"  Changing the title is just your ego at work; nobody else benefits from it.

[jimmy olsen]

It's not as if I'm changing the title willy nilly. The changes reflect signifcant news stories on the Korean penninsula and inform the reader of the current topic of discussion.

[Jacob]

While I'd try to put it slightly more diplomatically, I agree with grumbler that changing thread titles is mildly inconveniencing. It certainly argues against the concept of a megathread to have the title changing.