Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[Admiral Yi]

Going by our past amounts, I'd say I get $30 if someone gets killed due to enemy actions in the period ending April 19th 11:59 PM EST, and if no one gets killed, you get $20.  I can go higher if you want.

I accept on the condition that you're not aware of a casualty already.

Since I've accepted, why the sudden spike in probability?

[DGuller]

I accept on the condition that you're not aware of a casualty already.

I'm not.  If I were, that would not be just a friendly bit of hustling, that would be an outright scummy move.

Since I've accepted, why the sudden spike in probability?

General mood deterioration, and the embassies being evacuated.  That was enough to raise my estimation of the odds to a point where 40% probability of something happening seemed reasonable.

[Jacob]

Point of order, re: your bet - does "someone getting killed due to enemy actions" include South Koreans?

[Admiral Yi]

As long as it's not by shelling or while on a warship.

[derspiess]

As long as it's not by shelling or while on a warship.

[Jacob]

As long as it's not by shelling or while on a warship.

D'oh! I meant to write NORTH Koreans.   

Are they included?

[Admiral Yi]

Of course.

[Ed Anger]

I remain at BONERCON 2.

[mongers]

Now the North Koreans have marched us all up to the top of the hill, what next ?  The climb down ?   

[Sheilbh]

Surely when one state is credibly threatening nuclear destruction of others, there comes a point at which a preemptive strike is warranted...

I don't think so when that state has a history of bluster. I'd hope that our intelligence is decent enough to be able to see if there's build-up of the sort you'd expect between threats and action. Then it'd be more warranted.

The British aren't closing the embassy. The general view here seems to be that it's more of the same rather than a change.

[11B4V]

Now the North Koreans have marched us all up to the top of the hill, what next ?  The climb down ?   

Are we sure that Kimmy is not being manipulted somehow by the old guard? He is may not be like his father or grandfather who apparently knew when to back down.

IMO, This has a high probability of going south.


Er no pun intended

[Sheilbh]

Are we sure that Kimmy is not being manipulted somehow by the old guard? He is may not be like his father or grandfather who apparently knew when to back down.

Again, who knows? But I've read that one conclusion that analysts are drawing from the past couple of weeks is that Kim is definitely in charge. Until now they felt there was more of what you describe going on. But for whatever reason North Korean specialists apparently strongly suspect that Kim is very much in control.

[PDH]

Today - I think that the North Koreans are going to do a "launch and claim victory" move.
Yesterday - I was pretty sure the North Koreans were going to do something even more stupid than normal.
Tomorrow - who knows?

[derspiess]

I still say nothing will happen & poor Ed will have blueballs.

[Ed Anger]

I will play Tool's Vicarious as the rockets fly.