Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[CountDeMoney]

Are we sure that South Korea, with its conscript army, has the appetite for sustained mountain warfare and occupation of a country they consider family?

I don't think anybody has need to question the professionalism of the ROK army, conscription or not.

[jimmy olsen]

One thing is for sure:  the American public would go into catatonic apoplexy.  This country has kittens and pisses away millions on congressional inquiries over a dozen deaths; imagine the civil panic that would result in hundreds of KIAs a day for weeks in a real fucking war.

I don't think that would be that bad as long as the military is making progress. It's the hundreds (thousands if the North manages to nuke or gas the city) of American civilians that would be killed in Seoul that would cause political problems I think.

[jimmy olsen]

We wouldn't be doing most of the fighting.  South Korea would.  A new Korean war would be like one of those Pacific battles in WW2, blasting suicidal fanatics out of bunkers in rough terrain.

Are we sure that South Korea, with its conscript army, has the appetite for sustained mountain warfare and occupation of a country they consider family?

Pan Korean nationalism is strong in the South as well, and revenge for all the dead civilians in Seoul will inspire an appetite.

[Jacob]

Are we sure that South Korea, with its conscript army, has the appetite for sustained mountain warfare and occupation of a country they consider family?

I don't think anybody has need to question the professionalism of the ROK army, conscription or not.

I don't doubt the professionalism of the ROK army. I doubt the resolve of the South Korean people to fight in North Korea once their conscription age sons come back in body bags.

Now, that doubt may be unfounded, but South Koreans are pretty willing to take to the streets when they get their dander up - and I think that they might if they have to pay a price in blood for Trump trying to look cool.

My impression is that South Koreans in general don't worry too much about the North Korean threat, nuclear missiles or not. As well, I believe, while they have a very low opinion of Kim's regime, they're generally sympathetic to the North Korean population. So if a scenario comes up with protracted fighting in the mountainous North Korean terrain and the attendant casualties, I'm not confident that the South Korean public would be that much happier about it than the American one.

I could be wrong though.

[Jacob]

Pan Korean nationalism is strong in the South as well, and revenge for all the dead civilians in Seoul will inspire an appetite.

That's a good point, yeah. It depends on how the beginning of any hypothetical war plays out. If the North leveled Seoul at the outset, that'd probably inspire an appetite, as you put it.

[11B4V]

Are we sure that South Korea, with its conscript army, has the appetite for sustained mountain warfare and occupation of a country they consider family?

I don't think anybody has need to question the professionalism of the ROK army, conscription or not.

The ROK army of today is far from the '50's ROK.

[CountDeMoney]

My impression is that South Koreans in general don't worry too much about the North Korean threat, nuclear missiles or not. As well, I believe, while they have a very low opinion of Kim's regime, they're generally sympathetic to the North Korean population. So if a scenario comes up with protracted fighting in the mountainous North Korean terrain and the attendant casualties, I'm not confident that the South Korean public would be that much happier about it than the American one.

I could be wrong though.

They buried a quarter million soldiers fighting the Norks and the Chinese.  The stories of split families reuniting during the occasional thaw still make the news all the way over here. And, as Timmay hinted, the South has as much pan-Korean pride as ever, and would love to see a united peninsula as much as the Norks.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm not super worried about ROK will to see a war to the end. I think they're very much against a war happening for obvious reasons; but I think if there is a war the worst damages to SK will be in the early days. Once Kim has blown his munitions load and most of NK is a smoldering ruin of bombed out military bases and cities I think SK resolve will be that this is the last time they suffer mass casualties due to the North.

[CountDeMoney]

The ROK army of today is far from the '50's ROK.

Yeah, it's better.  It's been integrated into US command and control for decades now.

[11B4V]

The ROK army of today is far from the '50's ROK.

Yeah, it's better.  It's been integrated into US command and control for decades now.

My step dad was in the Korean War. To his dying day, he had nothing good to say about the ROK Army of that time.

[Berkut]

I think there is very little risk of a Korean War turning into a grind. We don't fight wars that way anymore. PGMs are simply too effective, cheap, and our military doesn't even have the depth to "grind it out" anyway.

The biggest risk is just that NK will be able to do incredible damage to South Korea and Japan before we are able to neuter them.

Depends what we mean by "grind". Maybe an "Occupation of Iraq" type scenario with a steady stream of casualties and expenditure of treasure is not a proper grind, but I don't think it's a particularly good case either.

I do expect that a war with North Korea will eventually result in a substantial number of boots on the grounds in North Korea, and if they're American boots then I expect there to be a steady stream of casualties unless Americans get greeted as liberators by a grateful population.

What are the scenarios really?

At first, of course, the US will use all the planes and missiles to blow the everloving shit out of the North Korean forces, but at some point someone's going to have to go in and clean up and organize a new regime. I guess it'll either be South Koreans, Chinese, or Americans... but if the Americans do all the bombing, I expect they'll want to have a say in what happens next - and having a say will require troops, I figure.

Oh, I am assuming that if there is a shooting war in Korea, American troops, and lots of them, will be on the ground and fighting.

[Berkut]

I don't claim to be any kind of expert, but my understanding is that the SK Army today is considered to be pretty well trained, very well equipped, and decently motivated and well led with a semi-professional NCO core.

[Alcibiades]

Oh, there would be some serious star spangled hard-ons for ZOMG A REAL WAR, but Americans coming back in body bags by the bushels--or even better, POWs for Nork propaganda--would temper that shit fast.

Yeah, anyone who wasn't alive and old enough to be politically engaged during Vietnam won't be prepared for the scope of casualties in North Korea. I do think NK would be neutered quickly then it'd morph in ways I can't predict, I don't think it'd bear a lot of similarities to say, Saddam's fall. But  we have a lot of guys, like thousands of guys, on bases that basically aren't going to be protected enough to not get blown to fuck by Nork missiles. I do think we moved our closest base to Seoul further south so we aren't in artillery range anymore, but the simple reality is we could very easily lose 4-5,000 soldiers in a month in North Korea. It likely won't stay at that clip because modern wars just chew up conventional armies very quickly, usually one side's conventional military just won't have the gas to go long term. But the damage Kim can do and the number of American soldiers he can absolutely kill before he dies is way, way higher than Saddam's capacities were.

No, we have several larger bases up along the DMZ.  Yongsan is supposedly moving from Seoul soon.

[Razgovory]

Are we sure that South Korea, with its conscript army, has the appetite for sustained mountain warfare and occupation of a country they consider family?

I don't think anybody has need to question the professionalism of the ROK army, conscription or not.

I don't doubt the professionalism of the ROK army. I doubt the resolve of the South Korean people to fight in North Korea once their conscription age sons come back in body bags.

Now, that doubt may be unfounded, but South Koreans are pretty willing to take to the streets when they get their dander up - and I think that they might if they have to pay a price in blood for Trump trying to look cool.

My impression is that South Koreans in general don't worry too much about the North Korean threat, nuclear missiles or not. As well, I believe, while they have a very low opinion of Kim's regime, they're generally sympathetic to the North Korean population. So if a scenario comes up with protracted fighting in the mountainous North Korean terrain and the attendant casualties, I'm not confident that the South Korean public would be that much happier about it than the American one.

I could be wrong though.

Well, if fighting starts they have to fight whether they like it or not.  Their main city will be under siege.  After a war starts it's hard to pull out.  After they defeat the northern government and are fighting insurgents and die-hards, they won't be in a position to give the country back.  The US had better be prepared to for a Marshal Plan level of aid, because the South Koreans will likely be desperate and angry at the US.  It's not impossible for a war-torn, bitter, but unified Korea to fall into the Chinese orbit.

[Monoriu]

It's not impossible for a war-torn, bitter, but unified Korea to fall into the Chinese orbit.

Nobody wants to be in the Chinese orbit.  Not even the Burmese.