Korea Thread: Liberal Moon Jae In Elected

[Jacob]

You mean North?

Moving South would involve annexing Seoul...

[Eddie Teach]

Tim better have a bug out bag ready.

Dumbass has it filled with anime DVDs and stupid cosplay kitten ears.

Still better than Meri's.

What's in hers?

[Ed Anger]

Tim better have a bug out bag ready.

Dumbass has it filled with anime DVDs and stupid cosplay kitten ears.

Still better than Meri's.

What's in hers?

Tampons and Midol.

[Monoriu]

I think people overestimate the amount of influence China has over North Korea.  They don't get along.  China has consistently asked for restraint on the part of North Korea.  Yet North Korea doesn't give face at all.  It continues to conduct nuclear and missile tests in public defiance of China.  Kim has so far refused to visit China, even snubbing important events like major military parades.  It is an open secret that the other Kim killed in a Malaysian airport is a protege of China.  He lived in Macau under China's protection.  Kim just offed his brother. 

[jimmy olsen]

You mean North?

Moving South would involve annexing Seoul...

I mean the Chinese would move south to the neck of the penninsula and occupy the northern third of North Korean if a war broke out and the ROK crossed the DMZ.

[OttoVonBismarck]

That's reasonable thinking Tim; China would basically push the border 100 miles South to keep as much of the refugee stuff out of China proper and call the new territory some sort of special protectorate that they possibly prop up as a quasi state lead by some remnant of the Pyongyang regime (probably not Kim himself.)

I still think a whole lot of nothing is the most likely outcome of the current North Korean crisis; but only a fool would deny war is at least a possibility in a genuine sense right now which should have everyone very concerned.

[Josquius]

I doubt that is actually what would happen. China would almost certainly (begrudgingly) take North Korea over as a client state if war broke out and the Kim regime topples, I don't think they'd allow the U.S. to have a military presence in NK like they do in South Korea, and to be honest I'm not sure we'd want one.

Plus, that little sliver of far east Russia probably doesn't weigh heavily on Putin's mind versus the thought of trillions of U.S. dollars blown away in a Korean War II, with huge troop involvements and consequent lack of ability for us to do as much in the Middle East or Eastern Europe (maybe a good time for Putin to push the boundaries more in Ukraine.) Plus we've had troops on Russia's borders for 60 some years if you view the Warsaw Pact as an extension of Russia during the Cold War (which I do), and in a true literal sense with the Baltic states that have joined NATO. And that's in Western Russia which has always been the part its leaders most cared about.

I'm not sure South Korea would even  want the Americans to stay once the north was pacified.
Even in the current situation the American presence isn't without controversy.

And yeah. American troops on the Russian/Korean border wouldn't concern Putin too much.
Sure, Vladivostok is valuable.... But already as things stand its pretty isolated from the rest of Russia and in case of war with America likely to have everything useful bombed to rubble quickly.
NATO is already sitting on the border of the important part of Russia so....

[mongers]

Has China called Trump's bluff by not doing a deal over N.Korea?

[Jacob]

You mean North?

Moving South would involve annexing Seoul...

I mean the Chinese would move south to the neck of the penninsula and occupy the northern third of North Korean if a war broke out and the ROK crossed the DMZ.

Oh I see. Makes sense.

[Berkut]

You mean North?

Moving South would involve annexing Seoul...

I mean the Chinese would move south to the neck of the penninsula and occupy the northern third of North Korean if a war broke out and the ROK crossed the DMZ.

Oh I see. Makes sense.

The smart move there would be for them to do so immediately on outbreak of war.

They could then claim it is part of the effort to contain NK, rather than it being an obvious move against the US led war. Once Allied forces moved north, what are they going to do - start fighting the Chinese when they run into them? Almost certainly not...

[Berkut]

Given that Trump is grossly incompetent, and that incompetency is likely to lead us into a war with NK, how badly would his administration then botch the actual fighting of that war?

Or do people think that once the war starts, the US professional military complex steps in and runs it well enough despite the administrations blundering that it won't really matter one way or another how bad they are - at least as far as the actual conduct of military operations?

[Jacob]

I think Trump's would have a need for media victories, and may interfere by insisting on big scale objectives in such a way that could cause trouble - but I think by and large the US military would conduct the war as well as it could.

I think the main risk (for the US, in terms of being successful) is Korea turning into a grinder and the US continuing throwing resources at it for little gain and/ or the US breaking things in a way that can't be put together and ending up with bigger problems to deal with in the area rather than anything operational. I trust Trump significantly less than the already fairly low baseline of expectations when it comes to manage any sort of post-war situation whether it's nation building, managing potential terrorism, or any other facet (other than personal profiteering, natch).

[Berkut]

I think Trump's would have a need for media victories, and may interfere by insisting on big scale objectives in such a way that could cause trouble - but I think by and large the US military would conduct the war as well as it could.

I think the main risk (for the US, in terms of being successful) is Korea turning into a grinder and the US continuing throwing resources at it for little gain and/ or the US breaking things in a way that can't be put together and ending up with bigger problems to deal with in the area rather than anything operational. I trust Trump significantly less than the already fairly low baseline of expectations when it comes to manage any sort of post-war situation whether it's nation building, managing potential terrorism, or any other facet (other than personal profiteering, natch).

I think there is very little risk of a Korean War turning into a grind. We don't fight wars that way anymore. PGMs are simply too effective, cheap, and our military doesn't even have the depth to "grind it out" anyway.

The biggest risk is just that NK will be able to do incredible damage to South Korea and Japan before we are able to neuter them.

[grumbler]

Given that Trump is grossly incompetent, and that incompetency is likely to lead us into a war with NK, how badly would his administration then botch the actual fighting of that war?

Or do people think that once the war starts, the US professional military complex steps in and runs it well enough despite the administrations blundering that it won't really matter one way or another how bad they are - at least as far as the actual conduct of military operations?

This is where Trump's persistent failure to fill key positions in his administration could bite him in the ass.  He might not have a DoD capable of stepping in and running a war well enough to win in spite of him, and giving Kushner the portfolio of supreme assistant warlord on top of everything else seems unwieldy.

[CountDeMoney]

Has Jared remade the Sword that was Broken already?