Goddamn Real Estate

[Malthus]

Canada has almost certainly been going through it's own real estate bubble the last few years.  Hell I had a bidding war on my place in Yukon two years ago.

Yup, so I keep hearing, and the figures quoted are impressive and convincing ... only, the bubble has been growing for at least a decade - in that I heard the same predictions a decade ago. When prices in major urban centres were like a third-a half of what they are now.

Problem is that timing the market in these things is a fool's game. All the smart money was on not buying in a bubble back then. What are the chances that property values will decrease by a half to two thirds? If that happens, it will probably be because no-one has any money anyway.

My opinion: buy what you can reasonably afford when you have the money and if you want that lifestyle. Don't worry about the state of the market, which even the experts have so signally failed to predict. I read an article the other day by some expert that was basically fuming mad at the idiocy of the Canadian consumer, who for perverse reasons simply refuses to behave as predicted - same expert had guaranteed that the bubble would burst last spring.

[Warspite]

Because no-one can afford to buy in London any more, we're now getting rental gazumping, where potential tenants offer the landlord more than he's asking to see off potential rivals. Some of my colleagues have been packed and ready to move in only to find someone's put in a higher bid. £1,600 a month for a three-bed  suburban property these days, heinous. No wonder no-one can afford to save a 20% mortgage deposit.

One landlord wanted £10,000 rent in advance from me and a mate who were going to share a flat in Vauxhall. In the end we told him to go suck a bag of dicks.

[Tamas]

Because no-one can afford to buy in London any more, we're now getting rental gazumping, where potential tenants offer the landlord more than he's asking to see off potential rivals. Some of my colleagues have been packed and ready to move in only to find someone's put in a higher bid. £1,600 a month for a three-bed  suburban property these days, heinous. No wonder no-one can afford to save a 20% mortgage deposit.

You should marry Mongers, move to the country, and live large from renting out your place.

[Richard Hakluyt]

But mongers lives in a hobbithole 

[Ed Anger]

And poops outside.

[Valmy]

Can anybody explain why there is such a perpetual housing shortage in the UK?  It is not like they have had a major population explosion over the past 50 years.

[Tamas]

Can anybody explain why there is such a perpetual housing shortage in the UK?  It is not like they have had a major population explosion over the past 50 years.

surely you must be joking. half of the third world moved there.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There has been insufficient new construction for decades. Housing completions last year were about 100,000, while household formation is running at 250,000 or so.

[Gups]

Can anybody explain why there is such a perpetual housing shortage in the UK?  It is not like they have had a major population explosion over the past 50 years.

It's the sooth-east and London in particular which has a shortage. It's much less acute elsewhere, in fact there is a surplus in most northern and midland cities. London's population went from 7.3m in the 2001 census to 8.2m in the 2011. Not an explosion but quite rapid growth in the context of the UK.

[mongers]

Because no-one can afford to buy in London any more, we're now getting rental gazumping, where potential tenants offer the landlord more than he's asking to see off potential rivals. Some of my colleagues have been packed and ready to move in only to find someone's put in a higher bid. £1,600 a month for a three-bed  suburban property these days, heinous. No wonder no-one can afford to save a 20% mortgage deposit.

You should marry Mongers, move to the country, and live large from renting out your place.

That wouldn't work for several, distinct, reasons.   

[mongers]

Also I'd just like to echo what Gups, Tricky and Warspite said.

It's all got rather silly; I recall reading some hansard debate about Scotish housing starts in the early days of the war, and the figures then, just in Scotland were comparable to the whole UKs current housing starts. 

[crazy canuck]

Canada has almost certainly been going through it's own real estate bubble the last few years.  Hell I had a bidding war on my place in Yukon two years ago.

Yup, so I keep hearing, and the figures quoted are impressive and convincing ... only, the bubble has been growing for at least a decade - in that I heard the same predictions a decade ago. When prices in major urban centres were like a third-a half of what they are now.

Yeah, people have been talking about a bubble in the Vancouver Market since before I bought my first property.  I am very very happy I didnt listen to all those who told me to wait for the market to cool.

[Grey Fox]

Because no-one can afford to buy in London any more, we're now getting rental gazumping, where potential tenants offer the landlord more than he's asking to see off potential rivals. Some of my colleagues have been packed and ready to move in only to find someone's put in a higher bid. £1,600 a month for a three-bed  suburban property these days, heinous. No wonder no-one can afford to save a 20% mortgage deposit.

You should marry Mongers, move to the country, and live large from renting out your place.

That wouldn't work for several, distinct, reasons.   

You are already married, aren't you?

[MadImmortalMan]

Yeah, people have been talking about a bubble in the Vancouver Market since before I bought my first property.  I am very very happy I didnt listen to all those who told me to wait for the market to cool.

I'm beginning to think it's time to try a different approach. Use my savings to deleverage my existing property or maybe do something else entirely. Like buy a car wash or a laundromat. 

It just looks a lot like the bubble is re-inflating and I don't want to ride that, the pain of actually trying to buy notwithstanding.

[Phillip V]

House Flipping Returns

'Rising home prices have fueled the return of a practice that some blamed for inflating the bubble: house flipping.

In California, the number of homes sold in recent months that had been flipped—or bought and resold within six months—has reached the highest levels since late 2005.'

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323463704578497143338013974.html