Looks like North Korea will finally carry out a third nuclear test

[jimmy olsen]

The first two fizzled, will this one be a complete success?

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/24/n-korea-completes-facilities-key-to-any-new-nuke-test-analysis-shows/

09:00 PM ET
Revealed: North Korea's upgraded nuke test site

By Pam Benson

Satellite imagery of a North Korean nuclear test site identifies what could be key installations that would likely play a prominent role if Kim Jong Un orders a test, which the government threatened to do on Thursday.

The analysis of the Pung-gye-Ri Nuclear Test site by U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's 38 North blog shows recently completed structures essential to an underground nuclear weapons test.

One is believed to be a command and control bunker. Another photo shows what appears to be a radio relay system that zigzags through a valley, which the 38North analysts believe could be used as part of a communications system linking the bunker to the North Korean leadership in Pyongyang.

"Located about 150 meters (164 yards) north of the test tunnel entrance, the bunker, used only when a test is about to be conducted, would contain equipment for controlling the nuclear device, managing instruments for gathering test data and communicating with authorities in Pyongyang," the report stated. "The bunker would also provide shelter for all personnel in the area."

The analysts compared imagery of the bunker site from October 2009, which showed excavation and construction activity, with photos from last year when the bunker entrance was clearly defined.

Last year, North Korea attempted twice to launch a satellite into orbit, a move the United States and other western nations claim was a cover for a test of its long range ballistic missile capability.

The first attempt in April failed when the rocket exploded shortly after take off, but North Korea said the second effort, in December, was successful.

The 38North analysis also describes the likely sequence of steps that would likely occur–based on the practices of other countries–if a test is ordered:

    the nuclear device and trigger are assembled in the tunnel chamber
    the trigger is connected, checked and put in a safe mode
    test site personnel check and calibrate sensors, secure communications
    site commander tells Pyongyang he is ready
    final status check hours before the test
    final order to proceed begins countdown
    final system readiness check during countdown
    detonation of device

The United States is concerned that a long-range ballistic missile could be fitted with a nuclear warhead and could be capable of striking the mainland, although experts say North Korea does not have the expertise to do so.

There was speculation after each of the satellite launches that a nuclear test would follow soon after. North Korea's previous two nuclear tests were in 2006 and 2009 and occurred shortly after rocket launches.

The 38North analysis would indicate the key installations and equipment are now in place at Pung-gye-Ri where the next test is expected to take place.

But whether a test is imminent is tough for the United States to determine.

"We've seen, you know, no outward indications, but that doesn't tell you much," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told reporters on Thursday.

"They have the capability, frankly, to conduct these tests in a way that make it very difficult to determine whether or not they are doing it," he said.

Panetta added that a detonation would be a violation of international law and said the United States was prepared to deal with any provocative behavior from the North Koreans.

Joel Wit, a former State Department official who manages the 38North website, said the prospects of a new test are ominous.

"With another nuclear test that could further advance Pyongyang's weapons program, we may be witnessing the slow-motion birth of a new small nuclear power in Asia that will threaten the United States and the region as well as international peace and stability," Wit told Security Clearance.

[Razgovory]

If they really had balls they set it off above ground.

[CountDeMoney]

If they really had balls they set it off above ground.

That's because they can't.  Because they don't have one.

Hiroshima: 15 kilotons.
Pakistan's tests, 1998: 12 kilotons and 6 kilotons.
India's test, 1998: 12 kilotons.
North Korea's test, 2006:  <1 kilotons.
North Korea's test, 2009: <2 kilotons.

Here's a nice paper from the Congressional Research Service from 2010, where the usual telltale signs of an underground test, (1996, minimal traces of Xenon gas, which can just as easily be released in the atmosphere; 1999, where the North Koreans somehow "miraculously" contained 99.9% of the isotope and noble gases that would normally be released into the atmosphere from an underground test) are at best inconclusive, or at worst, utter bullshit.   

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41160.pdf

And, just like I suggested back when it happened that all the fuckers did was fill a hole in the ground with TNT, there's also a nice part where an MIT academic posits that the seismic evidence of a 2KT detonation could be duplicated with a conventional detonation of 2,500 tons of TNT in two months using four 10-ton truckloads per day.   And while there are other experts in the paper that say it's a debatable point as to whether or not a controlled explosion like that is doable, I think it's certainly more plausible than the detonation of a nuclear device by the same people whose Mission Control for their orbital launch program didn't even have enough keyboards to go around for the desks.

Now, for a regime so technologically backwards it can barely launch a one stage rocket let alone multiple stages without it blowing up and killing fish, yet with such a history of bluff, subterfuge, propaganda and outright bullshit for the image it wants to project not only to the world but to itself, what seems more plausible for such a fucked up country with a fucked up self image problem:  a mini-squeaker of a bomblette in 2009 that would've used up an estimated 20 to 25% of their total collected fissionable material at the time, or the appearance of one?

If Vegas had a line on it, I'd put money on North Korea still not having a workable device.

[Razgovory]

That's not an unreasonable conclusion.  It's also not unreasonable to conclude they have the materials to make the bomb and they just keep fucking it up.  Setting up an implosion device is fairly difficult and if you construct one imperfectly you will likely have some kind of reaction.  Still Pakistan has a small nuclear arsenal and they are a pretty fucked up country.

[Viking]

I agree with Seedy here, if they are going to claim they have a bomb they need to make a test that doesn't look like it could have been done by filling a mine shaft with dynamite.

[The Brain]

So much negative energy in this thread.

[Syt]

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like they've done it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/12/north-korea-nuclear-test-earthquake

[Neil]

Another mineshaft of TNT goes boom.

[jimmy olsen]

The quake seems to have been upgraded to 5.1, the last test was 4.7 IIRC. Given the logarithmic nature of the scale that seems like a significant jump.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/11/16931003-north-korea-says-it-successfully-conducts-nuclear-test?lite

[CountDeMoney]

The quake seems to have been upgraded to 5.1, the last test was 4.7 IIRC. Given the logarithmic nature of the scale that seems like a significant jump.

Not really.

[jimmy olsen]

Seems that early estimates place the yeild at 6-7 kilotons.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/01/30/66/0200000000AEN20130130008254315F.HTML

[LaCroix]

Not really.

i liked your argument, jim, but now i think it's the real deal

not that i mind, much. i still think north korea is a purely defensive power who, unless it sees some dramatic regime change, will never go on the offensive

[CountDeMoney]

If this device was anywhere in the vicinity of 6-10 megatons then I imagine they pretty much burned through their entire stockpile of fissionable material, if this was indeed a plutonium device instead of uranium as they say.  IIRC, plutonium makes a bigger boom than uranium, but the North Koreans have much less plutonium available.

[Darth Wagtaros]

Tim, will Japan launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korea ala Israel going after Iran?