Likud dumps moderates

[Viking]

Why would it be disastrous if Israel ceased to be a Jewish state?

I think the israeli jews think that this would be a disaster since they are conviced that if they are under arab political rule that israel will be pogromed judenleer. This is what is driving the sabra israelis. They are already convinced that both the single state solution is disastrous (Partition, Black September and Lebanon are repeated examples of that), and now they are convinced that a two state solution is also disastrous (gaza, hizballah and intifadas have conviced them of that).

The Palestinian puppet state option, however, seems viable given what Fayad and Abbas have done in the west bank. To the sabra israeli mind

single state - civil war, massacre and genocide
two state - intifada and qassams
puppet state - trade, business, peace and quiet

Think of this as a choice, Likud which has had the position vis a vis oslo - "we don't think it is going to work but we might as well give it a go" is migrating towards "it failed because of what the palestinians are and the uncivilized barbarians need to be controlled or they will return to violence".

I sort of agree with Likud. The Oslo process has failed, or more generally the peace process has failed. We will not have peace this generation and we will not have peace until the Palestinians cease seeking justice and victory and rather try for peace and compromise.

[Admiral Yi]

I think the israeli jews think that this would be a disaster since they are conviced that if they are under arab political rule that israel will be pogromed judenleer. This is what is driving the sabra israelis. They are already convinced that both the single state solution is disastrous (Partition, Black September and Lebanon are repeated examples of that), and now they are convinced that a two state solution is also disastrous (gaza, hizballah and intifadas have conviced them of that).

The Palestinian puppet state option, however, seems viable given what Fayad and Abbas have done in the west bank. To the sabra israeli mind

single state - civil war, massacre and genocide
two state - intifada and qassams
puppet state - trade, business, peace and quiet

Think of this as a choice, Likud which has had the position vis a vis oslo - "we don't think it is going to work but we might as well give it a go" is migrating towards "it failed because of what the palestinians are and the uncivilized barbarians need to be controlled or they will return to violence".

I sort of agree with Likud. The Oslo process has failed, or more generally the peace process has failed. We will not have peace this generation and we will not have peace until the Palestinians cease seeking justice and victory and rather try for peace and compromise.

I used to more or less agree with this position, but I think we need to stop blaming Fatah/West Bank for the transgressions of Hamas/Gaza.  The dynamic in the West Bank seems to be about the adjusting the border, coming up with some sort of compensation for refugees, and water rights.  It's no longer about Israel's right to exist.

An Israeli could argue that's only a function of Abbas' pragmatism backed up by US supplied arms; so seek some sort of international guarantee that if the West Bank is granted statehood no violence will cross the border.  A single rocket gets launched, the UN comes in, administers the area and polices it, until such time that all parties believe cross border violence is no longer an issue.

[Viking]

I used to more or less agree with this position, but I think we need to stop blaming Fatah/West Bank for the transgressions of Hamas/Gaza.  The dynamic in the West Bank seems to be about the adjusting the border, coming up with some sort of compensation for refugees, and water rights.  It's no longer about Israel's right to exist.

An Israeli could argue that's only a function of Abbas' pragmatism backed up by US supplied arms; so seek some sort of international guarantee that if the West Bank is granted statehood no violence will cross the border.  A single rocket gets launched, the UN comes in, administers the area and polices it, until such time that all parties believe cross border violence is no longer an issue.

The thing is that FATAH isn't trying the negotiated peace either. The issue of refugees has not been discussed between the parties and every time Israel has suggested compensation and relocation the palestinains has walked out of the negotiations. This is the issue that has killed all the peace proposals. Borders, Jerusalem and Water have been discussed and basically resolved and when refugees comes up the palestinians walk out. The Palestinian position hasn't changed and that is return for whoever wants to.

The thing is that refugees = israel's right to exist and a palestinian majority israel can unify with a palestinian majority palestine any time it wants. The issues the palestinians are willing to concede on are the issue that will be irrellevant when israel is palestinian majority.

I agree that Abbas is not to blame for Gazan rockets. It's just that gaza rockets are nothing more than an irritant (and deadly danger to anybody who gets hit). 

[Admiral Yi]

With all due respect Puff that doesn't make any sense.  An Israeli says "now let's talk about refugees," then the Palestinian negotiators get up and leave the room??

[Viking]

With all due respect Puff that doesn't make any sense.  An Israeli says "now let's talk about refugees," then the Palestinian negotiators get up and leave the room??

Yes, but more sophisticated. At the US embassy in paris Arafat managed to delay the issue til the next day due to an invitation from Chirac. That scene ended with Madeleine Albright running after the escaping Arafat's car at the Elysee Palace. When Olmert had managed to resolve all non-refugee issue with Abbas in private talks in Jerusalem (iirc) Abbas said that he would return the next day to continue talks, the following day Abbas declared he was boycotting talks.

[Admiral Yi]

What does Arafat have to do with anything?  He's glowing like a Christmas tree, no longer able to set policy.

I've never read anything about an unwillingness on Abbas' part to discuss refugees.  Quite the contrary, it's an issue the Palestinians bring up all the time but the Israelis don't seem comfortable discussing it.

Could it be that the incident you are referring to involves Bibi's crossing Obama's "line in the sand" by building more settlements on disputed land?

[The Minsky Moment]

Where is Meridor?

It's the dark land where Merithyn forged the One Ring.

If that were true, he'd still be on the Likud list. 

[Tonitrus]

I wonder how many of these Likud types think it would have been a better idea to push the Palestinians out of the West Bank/Gaza Strip originally, and not have to deal with all this crap decades later.

Much harder to get away with the necessary atrocities that would have required these days.

[dps]

Why would it be disastrous if Israel ceased to be a Jewish state?

I think the israeli jews think that this would be a disaster since they are conviced that if they are under arab political rule that israel will be pogromed judenleer. This is what is driving the sabra israelis. They are already convinced that both the single state solution is disastrous (Partition, Black September and Lebanon are repeated examples of that), and now they are convinced that a two state solution is also disastrous (gaza, hizballah and intifadas have conviced them of that).

The Palestinian puppet state option, however, seems viable given what Fayad and Abbas have done in the west bank. To the sabra israeli mind

single state - civil war, massacre and genocide
two state - intifada and qassams
puppet state - trade, business, peace and quiet

Think of this as a choice, Likud which has had the position vis a vis oslo - "we don't think it is going to work but we might as well give it a go" is migrating towards "it failed because of what the palestinians are and the uncivilized barbarians need to be controlled or they will return to violence".

I sort of agree with Likud. The Oslo process has failed, or more generally the peace process has failed. We will not have peace this generation and we will not have peace until the Palestinians cease seeking justice and victory and rather try for peace and compromise.

The danger of Isreal trying that puppet state idea is that they might think that they're pulling a puppet's string, only to find out at some point that they're holding a tiger's tail.

[Viking]

What does Arafat have to do with anything?  He's glowing like a Christmas tree, no longer able to set policy.

I've never read anything about an unwillingness on Abbas' part to discuss refugees.  Quite the contrary, it's an issue the Palestinians bring up all the time but the Israelis don't seem comfortable discussing it.

Could it be that the incident you are referring to involves Bibi's crossing Obama's "line in the sand" by building more settlements on disputed land?

Abbas doesn't talk about it in meeting with Israelis. The Israelis are uncomfortable talking about it because it is a morally grey area where alot of people are going to get royally screwed over. The Israelis, however, are actually talking about it. Abbas is doing the Arafat thing of saying one thing in arabic and the opposite in hebrew. MEMRI makes this harder since they keep translating everything he says. 

The incidents I refer to happened when Clinton was President and the second when Olmert was PM.

Abbas has talked about the refugees. In arabic he says all refugees have the right to return and in english he says he personally would not return. The palestinians have never brought up the issue of refugees other than their maximalist position of right of return for all and no compensation for mizrahi and sefardi jews. To be blunt, that is a demand not a discussion.

The palestinians simply do not bring up the issue in negotiations or discussions. To be honest they rarely if ever propose compromises, this is all done by the israelis. The issue which led up to the present boycott of talks by abbas (before this settlement issue was brought up) was the leaking of proposals the palestinians were working on to resolve the refugee issue (among others) to Al-Jazeera. This leak ended the careers of the people working on it (including Saeb Erekat) and Abbas hasn't talked since.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12285739

The one time they brought up the issue it was leaked and lives were threatened. Before then they had ever brought this up, or at least kept  it secret. However, don't take my word for it take Dennis Ross' and Madelein Albright's.

[Viking]

The danger of Isreal trying that puppet state idea is that they might think that they're pulling a puppet's string, only to find out at some point that they're holding a tiger's tail.

Agree, they have to, at the same time, keep the puppet viable and legitimate as well as peaceful and safe. All the time dealing with a leader who's legitimacy itself depends on demonstrating to his own people that he is continuing resistance and fighting for justice when he is patently doing no such thing.

If anything HAMAS in Gaza makes the west bank puppet possible. As long as the west bankers can get their genocidal anti-semitic fix from cheering on HAMAS rocketmen then they won't overthrow Abbas and do the same from Ramallah.

[Admiral Yi]

The palestinians have never brought up the issue of refugees other than their maximalist position of right of return for all and no compensation for mizrahi and sefardi jews. To be blunt, that is a demand not a discussion.

OK, I can buy this.

[dps]

Abbas is doing the Arafat thing of saying one thing in arabic and the opposite in hebrew. MEMRI makes this harder since they keep translating everything he says. 

<snip>

In arabic he says all refugees have the right to return and in english he says he personally would not return.

Those aren't really opposites.  It's not any different than me strongly supporting the right of Americans to own firearms under the 2nd Amendment, while not owning any myself, nor wanting to do so.

[Viking]

Abbas is doing the Arafat thing of saying one thing in arabic and the opposite in hebrew. MEMRI makes this harder since they keep translating everything he says. 

<snip>

In arabic he says all refugees have the right to return and in english he says he personally would not return.

Those aren't really opposites.  It's not any different than me strongly supporting the right of Americans to own firearms under the 2nd Amendment, while not owning any myself, nor wanting to do so.

yes, they aren't real opposites, but to people like sheilbh this allows them to interpret that he is willing to budge on the issue when he isn't and then blame netanyahu, which is what their gut tells them they want to believe.

[dps]

Abbas is doing the Arafat thing of saying one thing in arabic and the opposite in hebrew. MEMRI makes this harder since they keep translating everything he says. 

<snip>

In arabic he says all refugees have the right to return and in english he says he personally would not return.

Those aren't really opposites.  It's not any different than me strongly supporting the right of Americans to own firearms under the 2nd Amendment, while not owning any myself, nor wanting to do so.

yes, they aren't real opposites, but to people like sheilbh this allows them to interpret that he is willing to budge on the issue when he isn't and then blame netanyahu, which is what their gut tells them they want to believe.

I don't see how.  The Palestinian leadership has made it pretty clear that they won't sign any final agreement that doesn't include the right of return for everyone.