Fiscal Cliff MEGATHREAD: Wile E. Economy falls off, lands in cloud at bottom

[Jacob]

Obama seems to be positioning himself so that we don't get an agreement, everyone's taxes increase, and the GOP takes the blame.

Which would be fine with me.

You don't mind a general tax increase and a public turning against the GOP, or is there more to it?

[Admiral Yi]

You don't mind a general tax increase and a public turning against the GOP, or is there more to it?

I fully support a general tax increase.  The public turning against the GOP because of this issue is not a goal of mine, but given their position, not something I would lose a ton of sleep over.

[Jacob]

I fully support a general tax increase.  The public turning against the GOP because of this issue is not a goal of mine, but given their position, not something I would lose a ton of sleep over.

Okay, that makes sense.

[garbon]

I'm not the one writing newspaper articles. Media seems to see this as Obama moving against the wealthy so don't accuse me of creating my own slant.  Besides my sentiments are more anti-Obama - on the level, couldn't he spend his time more productively?

At this point your whining has gone on at such length and volume that it's become a reliable indicator that Obama is doing the right thing.

Sure, you are free to draw your own conclusions.

[Jacob]

Sure, you are free to draw your own conclusions.

[Razgovory]

Obama seems to be positioning himself so that we don't get an agreement, everyone's taxes increase, and the GOP takes the blame.

Which would be fine with me.

I'm beginning to agree with you here.   I'm not sure if the "fiscal cliff" would be so bad.  And besides, you can always adjust spending and taxes afterwords.  It's not like Clinton level taxes were so onerous as to crush the economy, and with the wars all winding down we can cut a lot of military spending which is what I understand a major portion of the spending cuts.  I don't think it's going to be Austerity like Greece, I mean taxes are going to jump up that much nor is spending going to be cut to the bone.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm beginning to agree with you here.   I'm not sure if the "fiscal cliff" would be so bad.  And besides, you can always adjust spending and taxes afterwords.  It's not like Clinton level taxes were so onerous as to crush the economy, and with the wars all winding down we can cut a lot of military spending which is what I understand a major portion of the spending cuts.  I don't think it's going to be Austerity like Greece, I mean taxes are going to jump up that much nor is spending going to be cut to the bone.

That's great Raz. 

Once you get past Obama's political investment in holding down taxes on the Schumer class, it's not that big a deal.  Like you said, people weren't rioting in the streets during the Clinton administration.

[Razgovory]

Yi and Raz agree?!   We do indeed live in dark times.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure if the "fiscal cliff" would be so bad. 

Yes it would. You can't cut spending and increase taxes, overnight, by 5% of GDP and it 'not be so bad'.

If you want to do that gradually, fine. Doing it unexpectedly in one year would be a big deal. In terms of percent of GDP yearly fiscal consolidation, the nearest comparison actually is Greece.

And besides, you can always adjust spending and taxes afterwords. 

No-one expects it to happen, no-one's planned for that. Everything I've read has been very sanguine about a deal eventually being reached. Part of the damage of the debt ceiling was that it showed the markets how dysfunctional Washington was, because again no-one expected it to get that close. Your system's credibility would already be gone.  What business would invest rather than build up cash reserves when you've got  a political system that almost chooses to default or fail to make a deal everyone's been expecting for months probably returning the US to recession - out of choice.

[dps]

He's not flying there specifically to give the speech to fuck over Yi's and your rich friends.  His comments will be an aside to the main reason for the visit.  And why shouldn't he, anyway?  The public is part of the debate;  the GOP is seeing to that.

There's nothing wrong with him trying to whip up support for his policies.  There is something wrong with suggesting that his trip to Michigan wasn't for that purpose but came about simply because Daimler invited him--it's disingenuous.

[Martinus]

For a month-old "megathread", this one has really few posts.

[Razgovory]

I'm not sure if the "fiscal cliff" would be so bad. 

Yes it would. You can't cut spending and increase taxes, overnight, by 5% of GDP and it 'not be so bad'.

If you want to do that gradually, fine. Doing it unexpectedly in one year would be a big deal. In terms of percent of GDP yearly fiscal consolidation, the nearest comparison actually is Greece.

And besides, you can always adjust spending and taxes afterwords. 

No-one expects it to happen, no-one's planned for that. Everything I've read has been very sanguine about a deal eventually being reached. Part of the damage of the debt ceiling was that it showed the markets how dysfunctional Washington was, because again no-one expected it to get that close. Your system's credibility would already be gone.  What business would invest rather than build up cash reserves when you've got  a political system that almost chooses to default or fail to make a deal everyone's been expecting for months probably returning the US to recession - out of choice.

Which one is the 5% the cutting spending or the raising taxes?  We already did the almost default thing.  That's water under the bridge at this point.  If are going to be frightened over that, then they are already frightened.

[11B4V]

Obama seems to be positioning himself so that we don't get an agreement, everyone's taxes increase, and the GOP takes the blame.

Which would be fine with me.

Ya think. When did you get clued to that. When he won reelection?

[CountDeMoney]

He's not flying there specifically to give the speech to fuck over Yi's and your rich friends.  His comments will be an aside to the main reason for the visit.  And why shouldn't he, anyway?  The public is part of the debate;  the GOP is seeing to that.

There's nothing wrong with him trying to whip up support for his policies.  There is something wrong with suggesting that his trip to Michigan wasn't for that purpose but came about simply because Daimler invited him--it's disingenuous.

Not disingenuous;  merely a coincidence.

[Admiral Yi]

Yes it would. You can't cut spending and increase taxes, overnight, by 5% of GDP and it 'not be so bad'.

As a nation we would be consuming 95% of what we were the day before.  That can very much be not so bad.

No-one expects it to happen, no-one's planned for that. Everything I've read has been very sanguine about a deal eventually being reached. Part of the damage of the debt ceiling was that it showed the markets how dysfunctional Washington was, because again no-one expected it to get that close. Your system's credibility would already be gone.  What business would invest rather than build up cash reserves when you've got  a political system that almost chooses to default or fail to make a deal everyone's been expecting for months probably returning the US to recession - out of choice.

I can't believe you're actually making the argument that the US government's credibility is at stake.