Fiscal Cliff MEGATHREAD: Wile E. Economy falls off, lands in cloud at bottom

Started by CountDeMoney, November 13, 2012, 10:03:34 PM

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Admiral Yi

Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2013, 10:55:54 AM
The article that came with it the table (from your favorite newsource!) said otherwise.


QuoteThe deal cuts $737 billion from deficits over the coming decade, primarily through $618 billion of higher taxes on the rich and the resulting interest savings. But that barely dents the $10 trillion in deficits America was on track to accumulate in that time, roughly 5% of GDP on current policies, according to the Congressional Budget Office

So not much, but a little.

I think it's dishonest of The Economist to claim that making permanent tax cuts that were due to expire is deficit reduction.  They also appear to not be counting expenditure extensions, such as the unemployment benefits or the Medicare reimbursement rates.

Fate

Those Medicare reimbursement rates are going to be passed every year no matter what. Regardless of technicalities of budget rules I think they can be considered baseline. Unless you really believe having doctors dropping their Medicare patients by the millions is a viable outcome.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Fate on January 04, 2013, 11:41:31 AM
Those Medicare reimbursement rates are going to be passed every year no matter what. Regardless of technicalities of budget rules I think they can be considered baseline. Unless you really believe having doctors dropping their Medicare patients by the millions is a viable outcome.

I understand that.  But the other side of the see saw is the revenue neutrality of Obamacare.

Jacob

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2013, 10:52:08 AMOf course not.  Look at Phil's little table.  The deal cost 197 billion in lost revenue on middle class income tax.  11 billion in delayed cuts in Medicare payments.  30 billion in another year of extended unemployment benefits.

Obama supporters were crowing back in the summer about his offer to Boehner of gigantic cuts in spending in exchange for minimal increases in taxes on the rich.  That has disappeared.  The sequester that was the result of the GOP holding the debt limit hostage is on life support.  The reduction in payments to Medicare providers that was supposed to make Obamacare revenue neutral is proving to be the sham it was predicted to be.

So I'm offering this opportunity for Obama deficit hawk cheerleaders to man up and admit they had it wrong.

I don't know if you count me in the Obama deficit hawk cheerleader camp - I don't think I'm in it - but I expect that the response is that given the tough negotiation season ahead, some of those things were held back.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Jacob on January 04, 2013, 12:52:05 PM
I don't know if you count me in the Obama deficit hawk cheerleader camp - I don't think I'm in it - but I expect that the response is that given the tough negotiation season ahead, some of those things were held back.

That's an explanation that has the disadvantage of being easily proved or disproved in the near term.

Jacob

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2013, 01:12:53 PMThat's an explanation that has the disadvantage of being easily proved or disproved in the near term.

I'd think that's an advantage.

The Minsky Moment

Are there any Obama deficit hawk cheerleaders here?  Who is this challenge supposed to be directed at?
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Admiral Yi

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2013, 01:52:24 PM
Are there any Obama deficit hawk cheerleaders here?  Who is this challenge supposed to be directed at?

I'd prefer not to rely on my faulty memory on such a serious accusation.  They were definitely vocal during the first debt limit crisis.

The Minsky Moment

I fault Obama for being too hawkish.  The SS tax break repeal is premature and should have been kept another year.  I give it a pass because going full bore over the cliff would have been clearly worse.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Admiral Yi

And for the record I was not thinking of either of you, Joan and Yake.

derspiess

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 04, 2013, 02:07:40 PM
I fault Obama for being too hawkish.  The SS tax break repeal is premature and should have been kept another year.  I give it a pass because going full bore over the cliff would have been clearly worse.

There we go.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Razgovory

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2013, 11:31:10 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2013, 10:55:54 AM
The article that came with it the table (from your favorite newsource!) said otherwise.


QuoteThe deal cuts $737 billion from deficits over the coming decade, primarily through $618 billion of higher taxes on the rich and the resulting interest savings. But that barely dents the $10 trillion in deficits America was on track to accumulate in that time, roughly 5% of GDP on current policies, according to the Congressional Budget Office

So not much, but a little.

I think it's dishonest of The Economist to claim that making permanent tax cuts that were due to expire is deficit reduction.  They also appear to not be counting expenditure extensions, such as the unemployment benefits or the Medicare reimbursement rates.

Okay, so you should only use the part of their article that you like but the parts the contradict your argument are now "dishonest".  Tsk, tsk.  And you started off with talking about "intellectual integrity".
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2013, 03:54:23 PM
Okay, so you should only use the part of their article that you like but the parts the contradict your argument are now "dishonest".  Tsk, tsk.  And you started off with talking about "intellectual integrity".

For Christ's sakes Raz. 

Razgovory

Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 04, 2013, 03:56:33 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2013, 03:54:23 PM
Okay, so you should only use the part of their article that you like but the parts the contradict your argument are now "dishonest".  Tsk, tsk.  And you started off with talking about "intellectual integrity".

For Christ's sakes Raz.

In the future, don't use an article that contradicts your argument if you want to try get me with your "Gotcha" thing.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017