Would a party split benefit the Republicans?

[CountDeMoney]

We're gonna get four years of Biden before the GOP gets their shit together.

Right now, the GOP is being driven from the bottom-up, not the top-down;  every grass roots Tea Bagger operation and self-financed conservacrazy is driving the primary system, leading to the Christine O'Donnells, Todd Akins, Linda McMahons and all the other completely unelectable and unfit candidates. 

There is no national party leadership.  Certainly can't look to Congressional leaders for it, like the old days.

And no, Rush Limbaugh and Grover Norquist don't count.

[Caliga]

We're gonna get four years of Biden

[Caliga]

And no, Rush Limbaugh and Grover Norquist don't count.

Limbaugh had a hell of a night last night though.

[Eddie Teach]

And no, Rush Limbaugh and Grover Norquist don't count.

Limbaugh had a hell of a night last night though.

Got his hands on a bottle of oxy?

[CountDeMoney]

I bet Rush was popping so many Oxycotins, he was probably seeing Barry Goldwater as his spirit animal.

[Caliga]

What?  No, he had to have loved the outcome.  Dems be good for bidness.

[CountDeMoney]

Some RedState.com post-mortem frothing

The usual hand wringing is occurring now about social conservatives causing the GOP to lose.

Todd Akin lost because he swallowed his foot and kept gagging on it, not because he is pro-life.

Richard Mourdock was beaten by a Democrat who ran as a pro-lifer.

As for the so called "war on women," there is no war on women and women did not abandon Mitt Romney for Barack Obama because of their love of killing kids in the womb.

In fact, if you pull out black female voters, the Democrats and Republicans are tied among women. Are black women voting Democrat because they are women or in a consistent pattern with black voters in general.

Blame social conservatives if you must, but (A) you are lying to yourself and (B) if this is a fight you want to have, I'm happy to see you in the primaries in 2014. I like my chances.

[Eddie Teach]

In fact, if you pull out black female voters, the Democrats and Republicans are tied among women. Are black women voting Democrat because they are women or in a consistent pattern with black voters in general.

And if you pull out black male voters, Republicans are well ahead among men. This is a pretty feeble attempt to explain away the gender gap.

[PDH]

And if you pull out black male voters, Republicans are well ahead among men. This is a pretty feeble attempt to explain away the gender gap.

Yeah, losing 2/3 to 3/4 of the Asian, Hispanic, and Black votes regardless of gender seems to be the bit this frothing misses...

[OttoVonBismarck]

A lot of my Republican friends think that Romney lost because of issues like gay marriage and abortion, and that if we shed the religious positions on those issues we'll sail to electoral victory. I don't believe that is actually the case at all. I think long term gay marriage is a losing issue but all the exit polling in the important swing states I'm reading shows it was not an impact at all in the Presidential race in those states. It was not even in the top 5 things voters said they cared about (ranking below the 4% of voters who said their most important issue was foreign policy.)

Abortion is a bit mixed, the trend has been more moderation on the issue but the actual polls show support goes up and down. For example 2009 was the first year that pro-life respondents outnumbered pro-choice in a Gallup poll. I do think on the very long term, abortion is a loser issue too as I think things like abortion pill etc will mostly make abortion as we currently know it a non-issue. But I don't think abortion really decided the election.

In Virginia, Ohio, and Florida Romney actually won the white woman and white male votes. The reason he lost the Presidency, is he had one "large" issue (meaning lots of voters cared about it") where he won: the economy, he won about 53% of the voters who said the economy was their number one issue. But he lost basically all the other large "issue" voter blocks aside from the religious fundamentalist ones. How does that map to the minority vote? I don't really know, but I know the only way Romney ever had a chance to overcome a 95-97%  black vote in States like Virginia with 20% black voters, or 65-70% Hispanic vote, would have been if he won that economic issues voter group by like 60-40.

You can get rid of all the religious stuff and the doesn't get the GOP the Hispanics and the blacks, and that's the only way Romney won this election without basically winning a landslide among the voters who were solely voting based on economic matters.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Assuming they keep their support in white middle class and wealthier, the only way the GOP wins Presidential elections going forward is if they find a way to at least get 10% of the black vote like they used to (15% in a really good year), and 40% of the Hispanic vote. The demographics just don't work in States like Florida if you only get 35% of the Hispanic vote, or in States like Virginia if you only get 3% of the black vote. Due to demographic changes the black vote does become less important every year, as their birth rate isn't particularly high and they have no external supply like the Hispanics do. Asians are another important demographic that in the 90s seemed to be trending Republican as they were somewhat traditionalist socially and conservative economically, but the Democrats have taken that group in a big way since then, and that is the fastest growing minority group.

[CountDeMoney]

I courteously disagree, Otto, re: the impact of social issues.

For the vast majority of voters, the impact of fiscal issues like taxes don't make a tremendous impact on someone's life unless you're in the highest brackets, where conservative policies can make a marked impact, or the lowest brackets, where liberal policies make a difference.  The average voter can't or won't wrap their noodle around the immensity of the deficit, or all the convoluted numbers that come into play with a critical evaluation of policy like Obamacare, where connecting the dots for both sides is incredibly difficult to sustain.

But social issues are day-to-day issues; they're lifestyle issues, they're tangible.  The deficit doesn't bring out the voters, it's boring and incomprehensible and doesn't lend itself to passion for anybody but a Randian or the University of Chicago Alumni Association; but social issues do.

It's incredibly similar to gun control with the Democrats.  For most of the 80s and throughout the 90s, they banged their heads against the wall on an unpopular subject, and it took them years of losses to finally figure out it was an election loser and to jettison it as a high-profile platform plank.  The GOP needs to learn the same lesson.

[garbon]

as their birth rate isn't particularly high and they have no external supply

Such terminology.

[Eddie Teach]

The deficit doesn't bring out the voters, it's boring and incomprehensible and doesn't lend itself to passion for anybody but a Randian or the University of Chicago Alumni Association; but social issues do.

So do taxes and government programs.

[CountDeMoney]

The deficit doesn't bring out the voters, it's boring and incomprehensible and doesn't lend itself to passion for anybody but a Randian or the University of Chicago Alumni Association; but social issues do.

So do taxes and government programs.

Meh.  If taxes are your biggest concern, you're not doing your deductions correctly.