The Grand Election Thread

[crazy canuck]

What would it take for your government to become functional again - ie one party actually being able to pass the legislation it wants.

[mongers]

BBC are reporting over $131 million spent in Virginia alone. 

That's versus total party spending during the 2010 UK general election of $50 million, plus the small amount each individual candidate is allow to spend themselves, iirc that no more than 3,000 dollars each.

[OttoVonBismarck]

How sad do you guys think the pundits would be if Obama or Romney won it big time early on? They'd not get their night long wank fest they'd been dreaming of.

[Count]

I find it odd. A lot of Obama supporters I know on the internet seem to think Romney is going to win, basically every Romney supporter I know on the internet or in real life thinks Romney is going to win. It seems like only me, some die hard Obama supporters, and the statistics nerds think Obama will win comfortably.

I'm having trouble imagining how this is anything but an Obama win.  The numbers may be tight, but it'll never be in doubt.

Right, it's going to be a Truman-Dewey style result in that I think Obama convincingly wins the EC but by thin margins in a few States.

Now, what I've also said is I will be surprised if every State Nate Silver says is likely to go for Obama actually goes for Obama, the election is just a lot closer this year than it was in 2008 and some of those aggregated polls will prove to be off the mark. But a lot of them, more than is reasonable to suspect, will have to be off for Romney to win the whole shebang.

That's why I'm expecting a surprise here or there tonight on a state-by-state level, but generally expect Obama to win.

Yeah Silver posted a list showing states where there were three or more polls right before every election since 1980 and while there was some divergence the leaders in the polls usually won (in all but three examples) and, maybe more importantly, when polls were wrong in one state they generally didn't carry over to being wrong in other states. In other words, polls weren't all wrong in the same direction; in each election, some would be off but the mistakes did not uniformly favor one candidate. Romney, though, basically needs the polls to all be wrong in one direction. I'm confident Obama will win, and though I'm certainly not sure of the result I think Obama is more likely to hit 330 in the EC than Romney is to hit 270.

[mongers]

BBC are calling Indiana as a Romney gain, by a clear margin.

[CountDeMoney]

I get the sense that most if not all Republicans are holding their noses voting for Mittens.

The sad thing is, they'll probably say in the post-mortem that they didn't run a conservative enough candidate.

SANTORUM 2016

[Ed Anger]

HITLER 2016

[CountDeMoney]

How sad do you guys think the pundits would be if Obama or Romney won it big time early on? They'd not get their night long wank fest they'd been dreaming of.

I hope not, I stockpiled enough munchies to last to 4am.

[Eddie Teach]

The sad thing is, they'll probably say in the post-mortem that they didn't run a conservative enough candidate.

SANTORUM 2016

I thought they'd already annointed Rubio. 

[Caliga]

Kentucky: Romney
Indiana: Romney
West Virginia: Romney
Vermont: Obama
Virginia: too close to call

No surprises so far.

[Razgovory]

HITLER 2016

The new orders from the Republican party is that Hitler was in fact a liberal.  Cause he didn't eat meat, and he didn't smoke.

[Ed Anger]

HITLER 2016

The new orders from the Republican party is that Hitler was in fact a liberal.  Cause he didn't eat meat, and he didn't smoke.

Sigh.

DOMITIAN 2016

[Caliga]

South Carolina: Romney

[CountDeMoney]

HITLER 2016

The new orders from the Republican party is that Hitler was in fact a liberal.  Cause he didn't eat meat, and he didn't smoke.

Meh, Big Government type.  Although, he did have an energetic foreign policy.

GERMANY WILL NOT BE SHAPED BY EVENTS

[Eddie Teach]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/facebook-insights/?hpt=hp_t4_7

Obama's leading in 42 states!