Languish Presidential Election!

[viper37]

Talking about how he supports single moms who are scraping by: "We have very full hearts."

Alrighty then.

Maybe he'll put them in a binder.

[garbon]

Talking about how he supports single moms who are scraping by: "We have very full hearts."

Alrighty then.

Maybe he'll put them in a binder.

The women's organizations do that first and then give him the binders.

[derspiess]

Looks like the rally Friday is gonna be kind of a big deal. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/31/romney-and-ryan-plan-major-kick-off-rally-friday-in-ohio/?wprss=rss_election-2012

SCOTT HAMILTON FTW!!!!

Just heard on the radio that Kid Rock will join the stage

IT JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER

[CountDeMoney]

Don't forget your canned goods the Red Cross won't need, Muttski.

[derspiess]

Don't forget your canned goods the Red Cross won't need, Muttski.

The Red Cross will take my cans of pork'n beans and happily repackage them if they know what's good for them

Money?  Their million dollar CEO can donate some of her own.

[Ed Anger]

Plus, he didn't build that.  Someone else made it happen.

Well, in this case that's true. All Ed did was let some shelves fall on him. Presto! Instant wealth!

Let?

[DGuller]

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

Not really.  It's less than 1 in 4.

How would you feel coming to the operating table with a 1 in 4 chance of dying?  Seedy is right on, a lot of people are unable to comprehend probabilities, and convert anything greater than 50% to 100%, and less than 50% to 0%.  To be fair, it doesn't help when Nate Silver is being touted for calling 49 out of 50 states right, since that's not a correct metric to evaluate in hindsight his probabilities.

[DGuller]

Anyway, my prediction from months ago stands:  Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins electoral, with it all hinging on one state.

Wanna bet?

[katmai]

I doubt Ed has an accent.  He's from the correct region.

From Kentucky?

[Eddie Teach]

I doubt Ed has an accent.  He's from the correct region.

From Kentucky?

It's in the Midwest.

[Ed Anger]

I doubt Ed has an accent.  He's from the correct region.

From Kentucky?

HEY NOW

[derspiess]

Anyway, my prediction from months ago stands:  Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins electoral, with it all hinging on one state.

Wanna bet?

No.

[derspiess]

How would you feel coming to the operating table with a 1 in 4 chance of dying? 

That's a pretty shitty analogy.  If I had a greater chance of dying without the operation I'd feel pretty good about it.  And despite all the hype, this election ain't analogous to life and death regardless of which guy wins.

Hypothetically, would you pay me 3:1 if we bet on this?

[derspiess]

I doubt Ed has an accent.  He's from the correct region.

From Kentucky?

It's in the Midwest.

HEY NOW

[Sheilbh]

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

Not really.  It's less than 1 in 4.

As OvB pointed out Silver considers anything under 65% a toss-up.  So that actually means it's leaning Obama.  I read a very interesting post by a political statistician, which I can't find, on this where he basically said it's the equivalent of, in football, Obama being a couple of points up with 5 minutes to go. 

However as I say all the prediction models I've seen are predicting an Obama win (largely because of Ohio and Iowa) and the bookies have Obama 1/4, Romney 11/4.  I don't think Silver's that odd - but the attention he attracts is, for some reason.