Languish Presidential Election!

[Habbaku]

the Republicans I guess since their core territory has nobody living there?

Lolwut

Jos has been drinking again.  Go easy.

[Zoupa]

I hope Obama wins for Americans' sake.

But for Canada, a Romney win would be awesome, entertainment wise. His policies and Ryan's are so retarded, I pray they implement them. You guys would become like Russia. A nice bunch of rich people on top, a huge majority dirt poor.

I hope we can embed some CBC journalists when the riots start. 

[derspiess]

Socialists

[Josquius]

the Republicans I guess since their core territory has nobody living there?

Lolwut

Jos has been drinking again.  Go easy.

Its called an exaggeration

[Eddie Teach]

No you're right. Katmai's 3 electoral votes are gonna give Romney the edge.

[Sheilbh]

They showed a bit of the US news on TV yesterday and they gave it slightly to Romney with a higher decimal of 48%. Blimey.
I wonder; if its a close run thing in terms of voter percentage who is that most likely to pay off for? -  the Republicans I guess since their core territory has nobody living there?

I think people are overexcited, though it'll be close in the popular vote.  I think Romney needs another 1-2% swing to look like he'd win and a slew of consistent good polling somewhere like Iowa or Ohio.

Liberals are weak and love handwringing and the Romney campaign has an interest in projecting that they're going to win.  From 2008 Romney's almost certainly won back Indiana and North Carolina.  He's in the lead in Florida and tied in Virginia and Colorado (and possibly New Hampshire).  Even if they all go Romney's way he'd still lose and my own view is that they probably won't only go for Romney.  The remaining states he'd need to win, like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa are states which Romney has never led.

This stage of the campaign reminds me of 2004.

[CountDeMoney]

The remaining states he'd need to win, like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa are states which Romney has never led.

If he can't carry Ohio, and the numbers look like he won't, he needs Wisconsin and Nevada.  Nevada's definitely not happening.  You don't win Nevada with on 20% of the Latino vote.

This stage of the campaign reminds me of 2004.

The day after Election Day, it will remind you more of 2000.  Colorado will be the new Florida.

[Viking]

Apparently Obama can lose ohio if he wins colorado.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm already tossing Colorado into the Romney pile.  Too much twitchy voter registration and voter purging shenanigans going on over there.

Ohio has settled into a consistent Obama lead outside the margin of error.  The Buckeye State belongs to The Black Man That Saved The Auto Industry, whether the fruity anti-choice megachurches like it or not.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently Obama can lose ohio if he wins colorado.

Yeah, I think Obama's a few routes. My point is that Romney needs to win every state he's currently tied in and some states he's not leading and has never led in. In my view he'd need another big-ish swing.

[Phillip V]

The remaining states he'd need to win, like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa are states which Romney has never led.

If he can't carry Ohio, and the numbers look like he won't, he needs Wisconsin and Nevada.  Nevada's definitely not happening.  You don't win Nevada with on 20% of the Latino vote.

Eh? Obama's lead in Ohio (+2.1) is slimmer than Nevada (+2.7) and Wisconsin (+2.7).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[CountDeMoney]

Time: 49% to 44% this morning
PPP over the weekend: 51% to 46%
Last week's CNN: Obama + 4 points
Last week's Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist: Obama +5 points

I'm going with those numbers;  there's a settled margin now in Ohio.

Real Clear keeps muddying the waters with Rasmussen nonsense.

[Phillip V]

Time: 49% to 44% this morning
PPP over the weekend: 51% to 46%
Last week's CNN: Obama + 4 points
Last week's Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist: Obama +5 points

I'm going with those numbers;  there's a settled margin now in Ohio.

Real Clear keeps muddying the waters with Rasmussen nonsense.

You just muddied your own poll numbers.
PPP has Obama up by only 1 point as of this past weekend: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-pulls-within-1-in-ohio.html

Last CNN poll in Ohio you cite was from 3 weeks ago: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/09/topgenstate4.pdf

Last Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist poll in Ohio you cite was also from almost 3 weeks ago: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/09/topgenstate4.pdf

[CountDeMoney]

Whatever.  It's too fucking early for math anyway., so go fuck yourself with a Toledo mud hen, Phil.  I'm going back to sleep.

[Razgovory]

Phil has taken an extreme interest in polling data lately.