The China Thread

[CountDeMoney]

Your sink, perhaps.  Not the sink at Panera Bread.

[Eddie Teach]

Yeah, but they're the same height.

If I was homeless, though...

[Ed Anger]

Gross

[Sheilbh]

How much of this is an objective evaluation of the communist party's future, and how much of it is wishful thinking?  These predictions appear on an almost weekly if not daily basis, but we are talking about a party that has survived the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and Tian An Men.  Some of the arguments mentioned are not convincing.  China's students have studied in overseas countries for more than a century, and there is a long tradition of moving to other places for a better life.  Using that as his first piece of evidence seems weak.  The other pieces of evidence, like bored officials at a seminar or free copies of the leader's teachings, are not impressive either.

Fair enough.

The piece is striking because David Shambaugh generally isn't a writer who routinely predicts the collapse of the CCP (and he's influential in Washington). It's striking that he's saying this. As the Global Times put it he used to be seen as a 'moderate China scholar', but now he's a 'vanguard agitator'

Basically, the way I see it is that the purges are a symptom of the problem. In this case, the problem is the classic one that once a single group has had a firm monopoly of power, factions within that group will struggle for the power and that struggle will become more intense.

Is that not part of his point when he says that he could foresee Xi facing another coup? So far the Chinese system has managed to keep the factionalism less overt and less serious (not least because the economy was growing fast and everyone could get rich together), if it loses that and the struggle becomes more intense then I think the risks are pretty high.

[derspiess]

Thought this was interesting:  http://news.yahoo.com/china-turns-nationalist-veterans-outcasts-propaganda-heroes-072029419.html

[grumbler]

Thought this was interesting:  http://news.yahoo.com/china-turns-nationalist-veterans-outcasts-propaganda-heroes-072029419.html

"We have always been at war with Eastasia."

[Syt]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-32282029

China scraps unlimited Hong Kong entry for Shenzhen residents

China is to stop issuing multiple entry Hong Kong visas to residents of Shenzhen, state media reports.

The move is an attempt by Beijing to ease growing anger in Hong Kong over shopping trips by mainlanders who take advantage of lower taxes.

Shenzhen residents will now only be able to enter Hong Kong once per week, and stay for no longer than a week.

Hong Kong officials say 47 million visits were made in 2014 by mainland Chinese people.

Juliana Liu, BBC News, Hong Kong

Hong Kong activists who have been campaigning against parallel traders are celebrating what they call a small victory. The new policy is a clear sign that, despite a lack of capitulation to last year's Occupy Central pro-democracy protests, this time - when the row is over livelihood rather than political issues - the Chinese government will try to appease Hong Kong residents. Ronald Leung, a volunteer with the North District Parallel Imports Concern Group, told the BBC the policy change was an effort by central authorities to boost the popularity of pro-Beijing Chief Executive CY Leung. But the activists believe any drop in parallel trading will be temporary. There continues to be enormous demand by mainland Chinese for food and household goods sold in Hong Kong. They say the Shenzhen residents who had been ferrying those products will soon be replaced by Hong Kong residents who are not subject to travel restrictions.

About a tenth of those visits were by people who entered Hong Kong more than once a week, a large proportion of them Shenzhen residents holding multiple entry visas.

Many of the visitors buy up household goods in bulk to resell across the border - as Hong Kong does not charge sales tax - despite this being illegal.

There have been angry protests in recent months over this so-called parallel trading, occasionally resulting in scuffles in shopping malls close to the border.

China's Xinhua news agency, citing the ministry of security, said on Monday that the new rules applied immediately.

It said the decision had been made because of concerns that Hong Kong was struggling to cope with the huge numbers of tourists.

Hong Kong's Chief Executive CY Leung welcomed the move, saying he had raised the issue with Beijing in June.

Mainlanders have to get permission from their government to enter Hong Kong.

Mr Leung warned that existing visas would remain valid, meaning it could take some time for the effect of the change to be seen.

He also cautioned that the "unruly protests" seen in towns close to the border had actually hampered the discussions and "hurt the feelings between the people of Hong Kong and the mainland", the South China Morning Post reports.

Parallel trading has been a key factor in the growing anti-mainland sentiment in Hong Kong.

There is huge demand in China for household items from Hong Kong, in particular milk powder, as they are seen as being both cheaper and better quality.

Hong Kongers say this trade pushes up costs and causes huge delays at border crossings, while also complaining about poor behaviour from mainlanders.

The authorities on both sides of the border routinely arrest people caught smuggling and crack down on commercial operators, but locals have long demanded more decisive action.

[Monoriu]

I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade. 

[Valmy]

I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade. 

You should only vote for those who agree to support free trade.

[Syt]

I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade.

Is the problem with the mainlanders really that bad?

[Monoriu]

I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade.

Is the problem with the mainlanders really that bad?

Yeah.  There is an estimate that HK gets more visitors per year than the UK.  For such a small place, it is way over our capacity.  It has transformed our retail scene that only shops that cater to rich mainland tourists can survive the obscene levels of rent.  Our public transport system is overloaded.  There is very high inflation of basic necessities, as local HKers need to compete with rich mainlanders for stuff like bread.  The mainlanders don't come here to see attractions.  They come here to buy basic necessities, because they don't trust their own products.  We as an economy has benefited a lot from the increased business, but the problem is that the spoils are only obtained by the landlords, the rich, business owners and those who work in the high end retail industry.  The general population only feel the pain. 

[Monoriu]

I thought Hong Kong rests on the idea known as free trade. 

You should only vote for those who agree to support free trade.

Those who support free trade the most are already in power   The opposition wants increased protectionism, in essence.  But under HK's political system, the business tycoons will always be in power and those who want protectionism can never share power no matter how popular they are.

[Admiral Yi]

Isn't all that stuff imported anyway?  Why can't you just import more?

[Monoriu]

Isn't all that stuff imported anyway?  Why can't you just import more?

It is the businesses charging whatever they can.  Basically, a working class family making 20k a year needs to compete with rich mainlanders with tens of millions in cash to buy milk powder.  The mainlanders will always outbid the little guys.

[Valmy]

Also it is a matter of square footage. You can only store so much milk powder inside urban establishments.

Damn milk powder sounds gross though.