The China Thread

[The Minsky Moment]

Japan's Lost Decade is the closest analogue but China is quite a bit bigger and not as far advanced in per capita GDP.  We are in uncharted territory.

[Josquius]

Yeah, Japan busted the middle income trap and found itself trapped instead in a pretty stable self contained comfortable stagnancy.
That's the sort of failure countries dream of.
China is some way off having that safety net.