The China Thread

[Sheilbh]

Seems a worrying sign that Taiwan's doing this - and it feels very Ukraine in the 2010s:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/taiwan-china-war-invasion-military-preparedness/

The Zero Day trailer (I swear I've seen a short version because I didn't watch 17 minutes - but can't find anything shorter) is also really interesting because it is a "little green men" style scenario.

[Jacob]

Seems a worrying sign that Taiwan's doing this - and it feels very Ukraine in the 2010s:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/taiwan-china-war-invasion-military-preparedness/

The Zero Day trailer (I swear I've seen a short version because I didn't watch 17 minutes - but can't find anything shorter) is also really interesting because it is a "little green men" style scenario.

I don't have a WaPo account, but it sounds like the preparedness training is not going so well at the moment?

[Josquius]

I'll have to remember to look out for that show.

Taiwan and Ukraine analogies always sit uneasy. As sure. Taiwan having a decent army and militia will really help. But being an island the key battles will be very different to those of Ukraine. A lot less the militia can do with them.

The main learning Taiwan (and China) should be getting from Ukraine is the importance of drones - in particular navyless ukraine defeating the Russian black sea fleet.
Naval drones don't get as much attention as the flying ones but the potential in Taiwan is huge

[Sheilbh]

I don't have a WaPo account, but it sounds like the preparedness training is not going so well at the moment?

Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It's not going well.
The government extended mandatory military service and revamped reservist training in an effort to make Beijing think twice. But it's already falling short.
8 min

By Christian Shepherd and Vic Chiang
Updated August 3, 2024 at 8:30 a.m. EDT|Published August 3, 2024 at 5:00 a.m. EDT

TAIPEI, Taiwan — In the imagined blockade of "Zero Day," a Taiwanese television drama that will be released next year but is already causing a stir, the Chinese military has encircled Taiwan, cutting it off from the world and plunging the island democracy of 23 million into crisis.

In a 17-minute trailer released last week, the public responds to China's blockade with a mixture of terror and resignation. Young couples ride bikes past tank convoys on empty streets. Criminal gangs stir up chaos on behalf of Beijing and its territorial claims over Taiwan.

Taiwanese shouldn't fight and couldn't win anyway, an influencer tells her followers in the series. "Those who want us to enter the battlefield — they really don't care about our suffering," she says.

It may be fiction, but the show's bleak assessment of Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing President Lai Ching-te, who took office in May and whom Beijing considers a dangerous separatist.

The threat from Beijing has intensified as Chinese leader Xi Jinping has declared China's "reunification" with Taiwan inevitable. He has underscored his willingness to use force to achieve that goal by sending rising numbers of warplanes and navy ships to probe the island's defenses.

Taiwan's government has been trying to improve its defenses by extending mandatory military service and revamping ongoing training for reservists as part of a broader shift in defense strategy designed to make Xi think twice before taking a gamble on using force.

But young Taiwanese are not answering the call, and Defense Minister Wellington Koo recently acknowledged that a lack of equipment and instructors has slowed attempts to professionalize reservist training. "I must honestly say that we need to quickly strengthen [training] as there is still a lot of room for improvement," he told the legislature in June.

Such admissions may concern Donald Trump, who has signaled a more transactional approach to American support for Taiwanese defense if he wins a second term as president in November.

Taipei wants to create a professional backup force to support 155,000 active-duty soldiers. All Taiwanese men born in or after 2005 are required to enlist for a year of service, while about 2 million former soldiers are supposed to complete refresher training every two years.

But officials have acknowledged being behind schedule with plans to teach reservists and draftees how to supplement front-line troops in the event of a war. Only 6 percent of eligible conscripts — 6,936 people — took part in the newly implemented 12-month program this year. Most deferred military service to first attend university, meaning the 2005-born intake cohort won't be fully trained until 2027.

Those doing military service this year are not undergoing the anticipated training. A select group of one-year conscripts were supposed to be learning to use drones, Kestrel antitank rockets and surface-to-air Stinger missiles, but there were not enough of them this year to begin the training, according to a Defense Ministry officer.

Taiwan's slow progress on boosting training concerns military experts in Washington and Taipei, who are urging authorities to move faster to deter Xi and prevent a war.

"The last thing that Taiwan wants is for Xi Jinping, as the key decision-maker in China, and for the United States, as the key ally of Taiwan, to doubt Taiwan's commitments to its own defense," said Matt Pottinger, who was U.S. deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration and is now a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Pottinger said Taiwan needs the political will and foresight to dedicate some of its best military officers to recruitment and instruction. "I'm really hoping that Taiwan makes these sacrifices," he said.

China's military, the largest standing army in the world, has 2 million active personnel and recruits about 400,000 conscripts every year. Its defense budget of $230 billion was 13 times as large as Taiwan's in 2023, and its military regularly trains to take the island in a sudden overwhelming assault.

The United States is required by law to help Taiwan strengthen its own defenses, including through arms sales, but it isn't formally committed to intervening against a Chinese attack, a policy known as "strategic ambiguity."

While President Biden has repeatedly said he would send the U.S. military to defend Taiwan, Trump has made no such promises. Asked what he would do in an interview last month, Trump said that Taiwan was "9,500 miles away" and should pay for American defense.

Taiwan must be "mentally prepared" for a Trump victory in November — and the scrutiny that will come with that, said Mei Fu-hsing, director of the Taiwan Security Analysis Center, a New York-based research center.

Trump would "certainly demand Taiwan to significantly increase its own defense spending and be more proactive in preparing for war," Mei said.

Improved training is a key way for Taiwan to show it is taking military readiness seriously, analysts say. But new programs have continued to face shortages of funding, instructors and equipment, leading to regular complaints from attendees about the quality of instruction, according to reservists as well as official statements acknowledging setbacks.

"It was a complete waste of time," said Vincent Tsao, a 30-year-old scuba diving instructor who spent most of his five days of reservist training last week sitting idly inside, being taught by retired soldiers who openly acknowledged they weren't prepared to lead the program.

Taiwanese men who completed mandatory service within the past 12 years are theoretically called back for refresher training every second year, although in practice many attend far less frequently. Only a fifth of the reservists who went through refresher training last year completed the newly extended two-week course, with the majority doing only five or seven days.

Preparing 2 million reservists for "immediate combat readiness" as a second line of defense is "very important for defending Taiwan," said Han Gang-ming, former director of Taiwan's All-out Defense Mobilization Office, which oversees reservists.

"Since the reserve force is not the primary combat unit, we are always placed last whenever budgets are allocated," Han said.

Since taking office in May, Lai has vowed to press ahead with his predecessor's reforms that will improve readiness and has warned the military to guard against a "defeatist" attitude, telling troops they cannot presume "the first battle will be the last battle" if China attacks.

But the new administration has not announced major changes to training beyond scrapping ceremonial bayonet and goose-stepping drills.

Lai also faces fierce pushback from the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang, which controls the legislature and has accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of trying to turn Taiwan into a "powder keg."

China, which wants to undermine Lai, has claimed that he wants to turn ordinary people into "cannon fodder."

But analysts say Taiwan must prepare for the new realities of an increasingly aggressive China.

Taiwan's military strategy has long focused on stopping China before its troops cross the 110-mile strait that separates them, but a growing number of defense analysts in Taipei and Washington say Taiwan must prepare for the worst possible scenario: a protracted battle on the island itself.

"Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing where the fight is happening, when the fight is happening," said Michael Hunzeker, a retired Marine who studies military reform at George Mason University.

The island is patently not ready for that, according to people who have completed military training recently.

Cony Hsieh, 31, who previously enlisted and served as a soldier for six years, signed up for reservist training as soon as women were allowed to join last year. She returned for a second round in May.

While there were minor improvements, the military was moving too slowly to gain public trust and make training more than a formality, she said. "I don't even know what I'm supposed to do in my position if a war breaks out," Hsieh, who is now working on a master's degree, said in an interview.

Rising public concern about a conflict has left many in Taiwan asking themselves what they would do in a "Zero Day" scenario and how far they should allow China's invasion threat to infringe on daily life.

Surveys show a majority of Taiwanese support the decision to lengthen mandatory service, but that doesn't mean they think training is a good use of time or public funds.

"Everyone has their own lives and families. My wife would have to work and take care of the child by herself when I was away," said Hsieh Yu-hsiang, a 30-year-old salesman at an insurance company who attended 14 days of training in early July.

Even so, he supports government plans to strengthen reservist training. "As the threat increases," Hsieh said, "it's inevitable that we need measures in place to respond."

Abigail Hauslohner in Taipei contributed to this report.

Also rather concerning reports of significantly increased stockpiling by China.

[Jacob]

Thank you 

[Sheilbh]

As someone who really likes lots about former Aussie PM Paul Keating, really sad to see him refer to the Taiwanese as "sitting on Chinese real estate" and that the US having a stance on Taiwan would be like China saying to Australia "'look, about Tasmania...'"

He's been drifting this way for a very long time - and I believe has lots of well paid, post-politics consultancy roles with Chinese links. In particular he's been pushing against AUKUS very hard - which matters now given Labor are in power and he's a former Labor PM. Although given that Albanese has promoted the Minister for the Defence Industry to a cabinet position I'm not sure it's having too much impact - but that cabinet shift in itself I feel is telling.

But I suspect the "Chinese real estate, which belongs to China" language might have ultimately discredited him within Australia as whatever your view on what Western countries should do, I feel that's a niche extreme view.

[Jacob]

Yeah that's disappointing

[HVC]

YouTube algorithm is flooding me with China is doomed content. Things like foxconn and hp are leaving, manufacturing sector is crippled, etc. so, question, any of this legit or just normal YouTube commentator bluster.

[Admiral Yi]

If the two sides of the bet are doomed and clickbait, my money is on clickbait.

[Jacob]

It's a narrative that's gathering a bit of steam.

It does seem that a number of economic indicators (and large companies) are pointing negative. Anecdotally, a number of friends and acquaintances in China are pretty doom and gloom about companies leaving, about job security, and about overall economic trends in China.

That said, there is definitely an audience for "China is doomed" and a segment of the content creation industry that is more than willing to cater to it whether for simple economic or political reasons. So any actual trend is definitely going to be amplified significantly.

Which is to say, I don't know. It's probably a combination of hot air and some substance. Personally I'm not going to believe in China's collapse until it actually happens (meaning I'll be surprised by it, not cleverly predict it).

[Zanza]

I doubt it is doomed, but they will not be able to get back to the high growth rates of the last decades.

As the statistics on purchasing power, average age and fertility are likely to be reasonably correct despite Chinese fake data, it is fairly clear that China is at or even past peak employment, but still a middle income country. These demographic trends might change, but it would likely take decades. A contracting workforce in a fast-aging society will eventually make economic expansion tougher to achieve and more capital intensive, but Chinese financial markets do not work as well as the US financial markets.

Their attempt at growing via exports will work to a degree, but will cause more reactions like the recent 100% duty on cars in the US and Canada. An economy the size of China is too large for just export as growth factor though.

[Valmy]

China is not doomed but obviously its growth wasn't going to continue forever. Eventually it would run out of gas and the efforts to keep the party going were going to be counter-productive. And that is all that is going on here.

The question is will the Chinese government be able to successfully re-adjust to their new reality.

I will say that for a country that grew so much due to globalization and free trade and all of that it is kind of fascinating how their policies kind of undermine both of those things. They have done a great job scaring the United States into reshoring so much of its stuff back to Mexico. I guess they figure they are big enough now that they don't need or want to do business with us as much anymore.

[DGuller]

I think it's possible for China to have a painful adjustment, there is probably quite a lot of malinvestment going on right now that may not be sustainable indefinitely, but I don't see any reason to expect collapse.  In contrast to Russia, China seems to be setting itself up for long-term success fundamental block by fundamental block, and it can weather quite a few calamities.

[Sheilbh]

Very interesting Telegraph obituary:

Song Binbin, Red Guard whose beating to death of a teacher heralded Mao's Cultural Revolution
Song's public apology in 2014 for her involvement in the killing provoked scorn and calls for a national reckoning for the horror of 1966-76
Telegraph Obituaries
20 September 2024 2:56pm


Song tying a red armband for Chairman Mao Zedong in 1966

Song Binbin, who has died, probably aged 77, became a poster girl for the bloody Chinese "Cultural Revolution" when on August 18 1966 she was photographed overlooking an immense rally in Tiananmen Square, pinning a red armband, symbol of the Red Guards, on the arm of the Chinese dictator Mao Zedong.

Two weeks earlier she had taken part in the murder of Bian Zhongyun, deputy principal of the Beijing high school she attended, one of the first – and one of the most notorious – of the murders that inaugurated a decade of slaughter in which between one and two million people were killed.

In 2014, however, Song's public apology for her involvement in the murder – one of the most high-profile expressions of contrition by a former Red Guard – provoked a mixture of scorn and calls for a national reckoning for the suffering and carnage of 1966-76.

In 2013 China's leader President Xi Jinping had issued a directive banning discussions of "the party's past mistakes", and after news of Song Binbin's apology spread on the internet, the Chinese State Internet Information Office issued a further directive. "Due to the complicated public opinion situation on the Internet," it read, "all websites are to cool down on their reporting of Song Binbin's apology. All such reports have to be removed from the front page, while all interactive groups have to stop their discussion [of it]."

Song had been a student leader of the revolutionary Red Guards at the Girls' Middle School, attended by the children of the party elite, in 1966 when Mao, in an attempt to regain the initiative after years of failed policies by purging the Communist Party of ''capitalists'' and "class enemies", lit the spark for a decade of chaos by urging young people to rise up against their parents and teachers.
 
Song and another student, Liu Jin, put up the first poster denouncing teachers at the school before things became violent.

Bian Zhongyun was an obvious target. A 50-year-old mother of four and the daughter of a banker, she was responsible for discipline at the school. Students tested her by asking if they should save a portrait of Chairman Mao if there was an earthquake. Her reply – that they should leave the classroom quickly – condemned her as a counter-revolutionary and proved to be her death sentence.

In her book Red Memory (2023), Tania Branigan described how Red Guards broke in to Bian's home, burning her books and leaving behind posters threatening to "rip out your dog heart, lop off your dog head". At the school she was beaten and humiliated by students in "struggle sessions", dragged on to a stage in shackles and forced to kneel while they kicked and beat her with iron-banded wooden rifles: "When she fell they hauled her up by her hair and began again."

In her final hours, Bian was beaten with nailed clubs and forced by her tormentors to clean the lavatories and drink from a dirty bucket. When she passed out they loaded her on to a rubbish cart and left her to die in the hot sun, foam dripping from her mouth, while some girls went to buy ice lollies.

After her death her widower, Wang Jingyao, who had been unable to stop the killing, photographed their four young daughters standing next to their mother's battered corpse. "Mother's head had a hole in it and she was bleeding profusely," one recalled. "Her right arm was also bloodied from an injury. The blood ran."

At the Tiananmen Square rally, Song Binbin was publicly praised by Mao for her role in the atrocity and urged to change her name from Binbin ("genteel") to Yaowu ("militant"). An article under her new name was subsequently published declaring that "violence is truth".

Song later claimed, however, that she and other Red Guard leaders had tried to persuade the students not to assault Bian and other staff, and explained that she had been unable to intervene to stop the violence because she was afraid she would be blamed for hindering the "criticising and denouncing efforts".

So when on January 13 2014 Song Binbin, now 64, visited her old school and, bowing before a bust of Bian, said: "Please let me express my everlasting solicitude and apologies to Teacher Bian", some of those who had witnessed the events of 1966 – and many who had not – were not disposed to forgive her.

She was accused of lying about her role in the killing. Some witnesses said she personally beat Bian; others claimed that she had abetted or implicitly endorsed the attacks, and had conspicuously failed to help Bian as she lay dying. Bian's widower denounced her apology as hypocritical.

Hers was not the first public apology for the sins of the Cultural Revolution, but it elicited a much more extreme reaction than previous public apologies. It was not long before the censors moved in.

Song Binbin was born in 1947 (some accounts say 1949), one of seven children of Song Renqiong, a general in the People's Liberation Army during the time of the founding of the People's Republic of China and one of the "Eight Elders" of the Chinese Communist Party.

In 1968, like many other party officials at the time, he was purged and expelled from the Communist Party. And as the Cultural Revolution, like many other revolutions, began to devour its own offspring, Song and her mother were placed under house arrest.

In 1969 Song escaped to Inner Mongolia, and in 1972 she enrolled at the Changchun Institute of Geology. After Mao's death she travelled to the United States, completing a Master's degree in geochemistry at Boston University followed by a doctorate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. After taking US citizenship she worked as an environmental analysis officer for the government of the state of Massachussetts.

Her father, meanwhile, was rehabilitated, becoming vice-chairman of the party's Central Advisory Committee under Deng Xiaoping and one of Deng's most ardent supporters during the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.

In 2003 Song moved back to China, where she worked for an engineering company.

Song Binbin, probably born 1947, died September 16 2024

[Syt]

China going through defense ministers at a rapid pace:

https://www.ft.com/content/641446ed-71b1-42f6-a9d8-3bc4d7b7da23

China's defence minister placed under investigation for corruption
US officials say probe is part of wider operation to uncover graft in People's Liberation Army

China has put its defence minister under investigation in the latest corruption-related scandal to hit the top of the People's Liberation Army, according to current and former US officials familiar with the situation.

Admiral Dong Jun, who was named in December 2023 after his predecessor was fired for corruption, is being investigated as part of a broader probe into graft in the PLA, the US officials said.

He is the third consecutive serving or former defence minister to be investigated for alleged corruption.

Dong succeeded General Li Shangfu, who was ousted after just seven months in the job. Both men were appointed by President Xi Jinping.

The Financial Times was the first to report that US officials believed Li was under investigation for corruption. Li had succeeded Wei Fenghe, who was also placed under investigation for corruption after he retired from the role.

The US official said Xi was conducting a wave of investigations into the PLA that had ensnared Dong. It remains unclear what kind of corruption allegations he is facing.

The news comes a week after Dong attended an Asian defence meeting in Laos, where he refused to meet US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, which Austin described as "unfortunate". The two first met in Singapore in May at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue defence forum in the first significant minister-level engagement between the two militaries since November 2022.

China's defence ministry blamed the US for the rebuff, saying Washington was "solely responsible" because it had recently approved a package of weapons for Taiwan, which for the first time included advanced surface-to-air missiles.

The dispute came days after US President Joe Biden and Xi met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru and reiterated that their militaries should continue to hold direct communications.

China shut down military communication channels with the US in August 2022 after Nancy Pelosi became the first Speaker of the US House of Representatives to visit Taiwan in 25 years.

Xi agreed to reopen the channels when he held a summit with Biden in San Francisco a year ago, paving the way for Dong and Austin to meet.

China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Wednesday dismissed this report of Jun's investigation as "catching wind and shadows", suggesting that the claims were unfounded.

The investigation into Dong suggests Xi is broadening his probe into corruption in the PLA. In addition to the removal of the defence minister's two predecessors, China's president had previously removed the two officers who headed the PLA Rocket Forces and oversaw China's nuclear weapons programme.

Christopher Johnson, a former top CIA China analyst who now heads risk consultancy China Strategies Group, said the development raised concerns about how Xi was picking defence ministers. 

"Xi bucked tradition in 2018 by naming Wei, from the PLA Rocket Forces, to the post instead of an army general. With Dong, a navy man, Xi's military personnel dons assured him the vetting was airtight after a four-month search," said Johnson. "So Xi is left to wonder, what corner of the PLA is not corrupt?"  

In 2022, Xi also removed Qin Gang, who he had appointed as foreign minister, following reports of an extramarital affair with a Chinese woman in the US.

US military officers and officials have suggested investigations into the PLA were undermining Xi's confidence in his military and raising questions about whether it would develop the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027 — a goal set by the Chinese president.

Unlike the role of defence secretary in the US government, the defence minister in China is not the most powerful military figure in the Chinese system, which is headed by the vice-chairs of the Central Military Commission. Instead the defence minister serves as the international face of the PLA.

Earlier this year, Dong was not appointed to the CMC as expected, in an unusual development that raised questions about his tenure.