The China Thread

[Josquius]

I can't remember where I heard it, but I heard a good description of why China does so well somewhere. It's basically because of their system of local government, albeit with local governers sent from the centre, and all of these provinces competing against each other to meet their numbers.
Which has the expected side effects of temptation to fudge numbers.
Also less reported is the massive inefficiencies this introduces if everyone is trying to do the same thing and not collaborating.
It does strike me Switzerland is a close democratic example with huge power for local authorities and canyons all competing in a race to the bottom.... Which works when you're a tiny nation that can slip under the radar and has long had an economy based on financial shenanigans. Less translatable to larger and more normal democracies and real race to the bottom issues if many try to replicate

[DGuller]

On the efficacy of Chinese autocracy: the Chinese system definitely has some serious inefficiencies, primarily around corruption and the risk of group think / the impulse to preserve face (for the state/ party/ officials). It is my belief that liberal democracy will produce better results over the long term. That said, liberal democracy is under attack. I have no reason to believe that Trumpist autocracy in the US or Orbanesque autocracy in Europe has any competitive advantages against Chinese autocracy. In fact, I expect that Chinese autocracy for all its faults still has an underpinning of "serving the people" and mechanisms for removing incompetent officials (beyond at the very top); something which I don't believe are features of the Trumpist oligarchs nor Orban's regime.

To be honest, I think it depends on what kind of liberal democracy you're talking about.  I think that when it comes to leaps in infrastructure that we discussed, it's not China looking good so much as certain flavors of liberal democracy looking very bad.  In NYC city, it cost billions to build a few miles of new subway line.  Ezra Klein recently put in writing what has been on my mind for a while:  big city liberal governance is a great advertisement for other systems of governance, any system of governance that's not that.

[dist]

In NYC city, it cost billions to build a few miles of new subway line.  Ezra Klein recently put in writing what has been on my mind for a while:  big city liberal governance is a great advertisement for other systems of governance, any system of governance that's not that.

That's a very US-centric perspective. Costs of infrastructure projects in the US (and to a certain degree the rest of the Anglo word) is off the chart compared to other large Western European cities. For example, the light-rail in the US cost as much and/or more per km than a km of subway in Paris. And Paris is an expensive and dense city, with an underground full of holes and difficult conditions.

edit: So it's possible to live in a "liberal" city and have "cheap" infrastructure projects. The issue is how these projects are structured, planned and conducted in the US.

[DGuller]

In NYC city, it cost billions to build a few miles of new subway line.  Ezra Klein recently put in writing what has been on my mind for a while:  big city liberal governance is a great advertisement for other systems of governance, any system of governance that's not that.

That's a very US-centric perspective. Costs of infrastructure projects in the US (and to a certain degree the rest of the Anglo word) is off the chart compared to other large Western European cities. For example, the light-rail in the US cost as much and/or more per km than a km of subway in Paris. And Paris is an expensive and dense city, with an underground full of holes and difficult conditions.

edit: So it's possible to live in a "liberal" city and have "cheap" infrastructure projects. The issue is how these projects are structured, planned and conducted in the US.

I agree, that's why I made a point about just certain iterations of liberal democracies.  I don't think the ability to get things done is incompatible with liberal democracy, but I do think that certain flavors of liberal democracy have become very sclerotic, and thus self-discrediting.

[Sheilbh]

On the efficacy of Chinese autocracy: the Chinese system definitely has some serious inefficiencies, primarily around corruption and the risk of group think / the impulse to preserve face (for the state/ party/ officials). It is my belief that liberal democracy will produce better results over the long term. That said, liberal democracy is under attack. I have no reason to believe that Trumpist autocracy in the US or Orbanesque autocracy in Europe has any competitive advantages against Chinese autocracy. In fact, I expect that Chinese autocracy for all its faults still has an underpinning of "serving the people" and mechanisms for removing incompetent officials (beyond at the very top); something which I don't believe are features of the Trumpist oligarchs nor Orban's regime.

I agree with a lot here.

On the CCP specifically I think the other side I'd make is that it has proven remarkably adaptable - especially when you compare it wit the Soviet system or other Communist regimes. Whether it's able to deal with corruption for example is unclear but it is evident that part of the shift after Hu was because of the realisation that corruption was an existential threat for the party. But I think you look at the change that's been managed in China over the last 40-50 years and there's clearly an effective technocratic and political class.

I know others disagree but on mindset/underpinning of the CCP I think it matters that they come from a Marxist-Leninist tradition - there is intellectually a telos to Marxism. There is drive to history through material (and political) forces. Obviously that's a massive shift from an "empires arise from chaos and empires collapse back into chaos" way of viewing the world - but I also think it's different from a lot of the West. I know I bang on about it but I'm reminded of Macron's call for a return of grand narratives and "political heroism" - I don't know if it's possible but I think we need to re-capture a vision of the possibilities of progress/common endeavour (it's why I think some ways of framing climate are unhelpfully de-politicising and disempowering). Obviously a democratic vision of that is different than one where the party is the engine, but it's why I think there's a risk in letting change and urgency become "Trumpian" or "Muskian" and accidentally tying up opposition to that type of politics with preserving the status quo.

I agree on liberal democracy. I'd slightly re-frame whether it's under attack because I think the challenges have been internal. They've come from within, rather than outside forces attacking democracy - my view is that it's been failures within our politics that has produced a counter-reaction. And I think DG's point is something to that - I think part of the problem has actually been a degree of sclerosis and local governance in the US is a really interesting example of that. The one that always sticks in my head is how Texas is storming ahead on low carbon energy infrastructure compared with California despite very different politics of energy transition, simply by virtue of it being easier to build infrastructure in Texas than California.

[Sheilbh]

That seems like a very impractical way of landing troops or vehicles in a combat situation.  One cruise missile or drone strike would take out the whole system. An amphibious landing needs to use amphibious assets.

Sorry totally forgot - but meant to post this article which seems to include comments explaining some of those issues in a way that I thought was interesting. I know nothing about military stuff though so interesting to get your take:

China has debuted its new landing barges – what does this mean for Taiwan?
Sighting of Shuiqiao ships provides insight into China's integration of its military, paramilitary and civilian operations – and its plans for a potential invasion
Helen Davidson in Taipei
Thu 20 Mar 2025 04.49 GMT



The short video is shot from a public beach in China's Guangdong province, the unidentified filmer standing quietly by some fishing boats and a few tourists out for a walk.

Just to their right, a line of strange looking ships loom in the mist. The enormous ships are unmoving, raised above the waves by thick pylons. Drop-down bridges connect them to each other, the front one extending down to the sand.

The original video reportedly disappeared from WeChat shortly after it was uploaded, but copies circulated widely among watchers of China-Taiwan hostilities. The 19-second clip was their first clear look at what many believe are China's newest tool for its Taiwan invasion plans.

The barge-like Shuiqiao ships were first seen during the construction phase in January, and reported by Naval News. The Zhanjiang beach test showed how together they can create a loading dock from almost a kilometre out to sea – exactly what China needs to overcome one of the key challenges of any land invasion of Taiwan.


Annotated satellite image of the Guandong shipyard in early February 2025 Photograph: Planet Labs PBC

They also provide crucial insight into China's advancing integration of its military, paramilitary and civilian operations.

Under the rule of Xi Jinping, China's military is pursuing the capability to forcibly annex Taiwan if it fails to convince or coerce the island's government to submit peacefully. Most annexation scenarios involve a full ground invasion of Taiwan's main island, but there are fewer than 20 beaches on which an amphibious assault could land, and in wartime those can be defended, filled with anti-landing equipment.

Analysts say these barges can negate that key defence and, potentially, give the People's Liberation Army (PLA) direct access to any road within about 150 clear metres of the shore. Taiwan has more than 1,500km (930 miles) of coastline which several major roads and highways closely skirt, including as close as 30km to central Taipei.

"These bridge-barges are purpose-built for a Taiwan invasion scenario," said Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the China Maritime Studies Institute. "They embody the seriousness with which China under Xi is pursuing absorption of Taiwan by any means possible.

"The Shuiqiao barges are not a panacea that can overcome all difficult landing conditions, but they definitely provide PLA planners with more options along far greater stretches of Taiwan's coastline."

Many have noted the barges' vulnerabilities. Yu Pei-chen, a former army major general turned city councillor, told local media that Taiwan's military could use its newly acquired Himars rocket systems to quite easily take them out.

"China should build more barges of the same kind and send them to Taiwan. That would save the ammo for our armed forces," Yu said.

But Lu Li-Shih, a retired navy major and now political commentator, urged careful evaluation, telling a political talkshow he expected the barges wouldn't be deployed until Taiwan's armed forces "lose their control of the air and sea".


Picture from Chinese state media of tanks being loaded on to a car ferry that has been converted to carry military vehicles Photograph: CCTV 7/YouTube

Jason Wang, chief executive of Ingenispace, a geospatial analysis company, said the ships were a clear sign of China's "creativity".

"They can produce the ships really fast – four to six months – and get them into theatre," Wang said. "They can also iterate improvements faster than everybody else."

Several analysts said it was highly unlikely the barges would be used in a first wave of attack. Instead they'd be part of a follow-on landing, servings as a causeway to help deliver large numbers of troops, vehicles and artillery transferred from accompanying vessels. High-resolution satellite imagery seen by the Guardian shows the barges at Zhenjiang were also carrying amphibious vehicles on their decks.

The Zhanjiang beach where the vessels were filmed is near a PLA Navy facility, the headquarters for the PLA's Southern Theatre Command, which runs operations targeting Taiwan.

US intelligence has said Xi has ordered the PLA to be capable of invasion by 2027, although military experts have noted that a number of variables – including ongoing corruption issues in the PLA and the unpredictability of US support for Taiwan under Trump – could push that in either direction.

Regardless, the PLA is now undergoing one of the biggest military buildups since the second world war. Xi has overhauled the command structure, boosted missile and nuclear stocks, and strengthened paramilitary arms including the coastguard and the paramilitary fleet of fishing boats known as the maritime militia. The different groups are cooperating more than ever on joint operations.

Satellite images show the barges were escorted by at least two civilian ships from a nearby civilian dock, and that several other boats – including some marked as fishing vessels on their tracking ID – were sailing laps behind them, appearing to practise running interference.

At least three more barges are under construction or in early testing. The barge design suggests they have been built to work with the roll-on, roll-off ferries that China has been repurposing or building to bring tanks and another heavy armoured vehicles across the Taiwan Strait.

Shipbuilding is a key part of the expansion of the PLA, which has the world's largest navy. In a recent report on China's growing "dual use" shipbuilding industry, the Centre For Strategic and International Studies said China's largest single state-owned shipbuilder had built "more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire US shipbuilding industry has built since the end of world war two".

Additional research by Jason Tzu Kuan Lu

This article was amended on 2 April 2025 to correct the spelling of Shuiqiao.