The China Thread

[crazy canuck]

Someone I know has sold off his business interests in Taiwan because of a concern about an invasion in the not to distant future.  His concern is that the political imperative for the US to defend Taiwan may be lessoning while there is a large incentive for China to take out the West's access to chip production before the West develops its own capacity.

What's the argument that the political incentive is lessening for the US?

His concern is not that objectively it should be less, but rather the unpredictable nature of American politics - who knows what they will stand for or defend after each election cycle?

[Tonitrus]

On the question of China invading Taiwan, a big factor is in how they do it...

1. If they go in assuming we might intervene, and decided that that almost obligates a pre-emptive attack on any of our assets in the region (CVNs, Okinawa, etc.) that would make an intervention possible.  That, of course, makes intervention by us inevitable.  If a CVN is attacked/sunk and Kadena AFB is blown to crap, and we do nothing...then the US's strategic influence in the world is pretty dead.

2. If they play it all coy, and deliberately avoid anything that looks like targeting or involving our forces in the region, "just moving our troops into our province, nothing to see here".  Of course this makes the invasion that much harder, but a much stronger pretext in the international community to say "step off, this is an internal matter", and  pretend that that position is fully legitimate.  And try to play any US intervention as an attack on China (they could even bluster nuclear armageddon Russian-style).

I also have to wonder, if prior to Putin's airborne gambit on Kiev, some PLA generals might have been thinking "if we just dropped some paratroops on Taipei, maybe those decadent capitalists won't fight back and will fold inside a week"...and now to have to strongly reconsider that.

[Josquius]

The US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.
Even ignoring morality, the country's reputation, geopolitics, etc... Of the invasion itself, it would be very dangerous for China to gain such a hold over the global economy via Taiwans microchip industry.

[Admiral Yi]

The US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.

Is it optional for everyone else?

[Josquius]

The US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.

Is it optional for everyone else?

Bar maybe Japan pretty much. Not many countries with carrier battle groups hanging around the area.

[Admiral Yi]

Bar maybe Japan pretty much. Not many countries with carrier battle groups hanging around the area.

Other countries have ground troops, combat aircrat, ASW frigates, destroyers, AA missile batteries, etc., etc.

[Josquius]

Bar maybe Japan pretty much. Not many countries with carrier battle groups hanging around the area.

Other countries have ground troops, combat aircrat, ASW frigates, destroyers, AA missile batteries, etc., etc.

In position to react to a surprise Chinese invasion?

[Threviel]

Presumably it's very much in the interest of nations like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines to contain an aggressive Commie China.

A bit further away there's Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

If Russia should go non-retard it's also in their interest to contain China.

And then there's all of Nato.

So there are a lot of possible allies to the Republic of China that has interests aligning. Some kind of East Asian Nato could possibly be built to contain the commies.

Too bad that that Trump fucked up the budding alliance that Obama was building and also fucked up the credibility of the US.

[Jacob]

Is it optional for everyone else?

Well... no one else has a position as global power to defend. I think "the US has to intervene" is not "they are morally obligated to intervene" but rather "to maintain its economic and political and military security, the US basically has to intervene...." Though obviously that'll be for the US to decide.

That said, I'd think that the rest of the West and Asian allies should intervene from a moral and geopolitical standpoint... but doing so without the US would probably be relatively ineffective.

[crazy canuck]

The US has to intervene in any invasion of Taiwan.
Even ignoring morality, the country's reputation, geopolitics, etc... Of the invasion itself, it would be very dangerous for China to gain such a hold over the global economy via Taiwans microchip industry.

Did you miss the Trump Presidency by any chance?  You are talking like there will always be a rational actor in that seat.

[Jacob]

At the same time, China seems to be having some economic troubles: bank runs and the construction/ real estate sector (which is a significant share of Chinese GDP and wealth) seems to be having real issues. It seems potentially pretty significant. If the CCP fails to hold up their end of the "we increase or at least maintain your standard of living and you let us rule" bargain, things could get pretty ugly.

Taking it back to Taiwan... on one hand it could mean "no times for expensive adventures when the economy is in trouble, especially ones that could hit the economy even harder." On the other hand, it could also lead to "let's distract from our economic woes by starting a war and whipping up a nationalist frenzy."

I dunno. I confess to having a lot of misgivings these days.

[Josquius]

Should we be hoping for a Japanese politician to do something dumb and give an alternative outlet?

...then again that could just lead to an invasion of the Senkakus.

[HVC]

Taiwan spend 16B on defense. Roughly the same as much more protected Canada and less then half the 58B that Japan spends. They're getting a 8B top up this year, but still why so low when you're in the shadow of the beast? The top up puts them at 3% of GDP, Which was their target for years but not attained.

Afraid of poking China? Expecting America to foot the bill? Other?

[crazy canuck]

Probably an assessment of the likelihood of an attack - the problem is that isn't a great metric to drive military spending given the lag time in deciding to commit spending and the result of that spending.

[Admiral Yi]

In position to react to a surprise Chinese invasion?

Military capability is a choice.