The China Thread

[Jacob]

What? On what rationale?

People in Shanghai played it from their balconies to protest the draconian lockdown measures. The Chinese lines about slaves arising and starvation and such were seen as apt.

And since the song was used to criticize the regime, it was banned.

[Sheilbh]

Lots of questions about this story of stolen data of 1 billion people from Shanghai police database (via WSJ reporter) - but wow 
https://twitter.com/_karenhao/status/1543949945614393344?s=21&t=-5voB09gEA3eLESE1j5axQ

[Jacob]

Lots of questions about this story of stolen data of 1 billion people from Shanghai police database (via WSJ reporter) - but wow 
https://twitter.com/_karenhao/status/1543949945614393344?s=21&t=-5voB09gEA3eLESE1j5axQ

That's wild.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think they're still Marxist-Leninist. It's a vanguard party state and the party has the ultimate say over the economy, which they are using. And I think it shapes what they say and how party leaders think. I'm not sure it's cope for me because I'm fairly anti-tankie and think Marxism-Leninism is bad.

China lost some billionaires over the last year but still has over 600 (#2 after USA).  I don't think a country can have 600+ billionaires and still pass itself off as Marxist-Leninist.

Yes there are a single party state.  But single party states are hardly exclusive to Marxist regimes.  The same is true for dictatorial states that maintain political control over key economic sectors.  If anything, the Chinese approach is more akin to 20th century fascist-corporatist regimes than classic Marxist ones.

The closest comparison to the current Chinese development model is probably postwar Japan.  Postwar Japan was technically a multi-party democracy, but in practice a single party dominated the state, with different factions bargaining for pre-eminence in a manner not all that different from the post-Deng operation of the Communist Party before Xi.  The PRC did not have the legacy of the keiritsu (or the Korean chaebol) and that role was assumed to some degree by state enterprises under the control of bureaucrat-dynasts.   But the SOEs are paralleled by powerful privately owned industrial groups that have real autonomy of action in the economic sphere.  I think it stretches the terminology too far to keep the Marxist-Leninist label on this system.

[Sheilbh]

Haven't read the article (because it's in German and there's no link) and I don't mean to pick on Germany - but selling engines for Chinese warships seems sub-optimal
https://twitter.com/hmtillack/status/1546025493559902208?s=20&t=WY1rQ9pFWtz4YJBnPcadOQ

No doubt the Greens are good on this but everyone less so

[HVC]

Chinese banks in Henan province froze accounts since April leading to protests and subsequent crackdown of said protests.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-crushes-mass-protest-by-bank-depositors-demanding-their-life-savings-back/ar-AAZqmng?li=AAggNb9

[Jacob]

Looks like the bank run is spreading somewhat. As I understand it, it's mostly smaller local type banks that are being affected. Then again, if you had your money in a bigger bank and saw your neighbour lose everything you might be tempted to pull out your money just to be safe.

Also as I understand it, many Chinese banks are heavily involved in construction and real estate so this may be a knock-on effect of some of the defaults or near defaults we've been hearing about.

[Zanza]

Haven't read the article (because it's in German and there's no link) and I don't mean to pick on Germany - but selling engines for Chinese warships seems sub-optimal
https://twitter.com/hmtillack/status/1546025493559902208?s=20&t=WY1rQ9pFWtz4YJBnPcadOQ

No doubt the Greens are good on this but everyone less so

The company in question is owned by Rolls-Royce.

[Sheilbh]

Which is owned by BMW.

Edit: Oh no - apologies you're quite right. The defence business is separate and still listed here and should be blocked from doing any defence business with China.

[Valmy]

Chalk that one up for the China no longer Marxist side.

I doubt anyone still considered them Marxist.

Marxism is unworkable anarchist bullshit anyway. Withering away of the state 

Yeah right. The dictatorship of the proletariat party has never even approached 1% of state withering.

[Jacob]

Read this thread where somebody named Elbridge Colby argues there's a high chance of China invading Taiwan in the not too distant future:
https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1547256901213343744

I'm curious what people think of that - and even more so, what do we think are likely scenarios if China does pull the trigger.

One first big question is whether the US (& other allies) will intervene.

One argument in favour of intervention which I'd not considered previously is Taiwan's microprocessor industry. Losing it - especially losing it to China - would be a big blow to the West and the US's position of economic and military power.

If the US does intervene, another question I've seen is raised is whether it'd be able to so. It's not something I'd considered previously - I'd just assumed it would - but maybe some of you folks know better. Is American positioning and procurement in a state that it's more of an open question whether it could successfully defend Taiwan? Or are things fine there?

The other question I have is if we have any sense of scale of the economic damage - to China, to the US, and to the West - if there's an actual war? The scope of possible repercussions and knock-on effects are hard to get a handle on for me right now, so I'm curious if any of you have thoughts?

[Barrister]

China has been undergoing a military build-up over the last several years for sure.

But the PLA hasn't been involved in any kind of meaningful military action since 1979 against Vietnam.  As we have seen from Russia you don't quite know what your military is capable of until you actually use it.  No PLA soldier or general has any experience in combat by now.

Any conquest of Taiwan would also involve an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Straight - one of the most difficult types of assaults to make.

And the West's economic involvement in Taiwan is huge - it vastly outweighs our economic ties to Ukraine.  Semiconductors is a big part of it, but not the only part.

[crazy canuck]

Someone I know has sold off his business interests in Taiwan because of a concern about an invasion in the not to distant future.  His concern is that the political imperative for the US to defend Taiwan may be lessoning while there is a large incentive for China to take out the West's access to chip production before the West develops its own capacity.

[HVC]

Grumbler had a few good posts about the feasibility (or lack there of) of China pulling off a amphibious assault recently. Hopefully he'll chime in again.

[Jacob]

Someone I know has sold off his business interests in Taiwan because of a concern about an invasion in the not to distant future.  His concern is that the political imperative for the US to defend Taiwan may be lessoning while there is a large incentive for China to take out the West's access to chip production before the West develops its own capacity.

What's the argument that the political incentive is lessening for the US?