The China Thread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

maybe it's about time to call people working with the chinese government for what they are: collaborators.
and the chinese government for what it is: soon to be worse than Hitler if they don't change their trajectory

the CCP seems to indeed have learned lessons from the past 200 years. But it may all be the wrong lessons

[Eddie Teach]

Taxing Australian wine ain't exactly invading Austria.

[celedhring]

My experience with Aussie wines is that they are all over the place, so maybe the Chinese are doing the right thing 

[Valmy]

maybe it's about time to call people working with the chinese government for what they are: collaborators.
and the chinese government for what it is: soon to be worse than Hitler if they don't change their trajectory

the CCP seems to indeed have learned lessons from the past 200 years. But it may all be the wrong lessons

Well I wouldn't go that far but it is pretty clear obvious that our attempts to woo China have failed. The CCP is not going to change its ways. We used to maybe think that "oh that was the bad old days of Mao and now they will be more pragmatic and moderate" well that clearly is not the case. This is still the party of labor camps and police states.

Unfortunately our political and economic leaders in the US are so corrupt and dysfunctional now I am not sure we can significantly change course. I know our current President made some symbolic gestures and rattled some sabers but I am not sure that really did much in extricating ourselves from our predicament. Well see what President Biden and his crew come up with, but I am not really optimistic.

[Threviel]

I'd argue that Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao more or less moved China in the right direction. It all went haywire with Pooh and the west seems to be scrambling to catch up.

I'd like to see a trade war with China, try to strangle their economy while we still can. If we wait a few decades the west will be an irrelevant appendix to a dominant Asia ruled by China. I'd rather see that we slow China down to let India, Indonesia, Japan and the other large Asian states become relevant counter weights. That way, in a multi-polar world the western states will still be relevant.

I think this is the single most important issue facing the current generation of political leadership.

[celedhring]

I mean, it's obvious that China intends to use its sizable economic influence to extract political leverage in a nationalistic quest for regional supremacy. It won't be the first great power to do so, but doesn't mean they should get a pass, particularly given their unsavory politics.

The problem is that the whole "decoupling" thing sounds nice, but it's rather impractical in free market societies like ours, barring extreme trade wars which will do more harm than good, particularly given the state of our economies. And I've never been a big fan of economic sanctions against authoritarian regimes, anyway, their track record of actually changing anything is pretty poor.

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening. 

[Threviel]

From talking to a few fellow Chinese engineers a few years back it seems quite clear that the communist party has no legitimacy in their eyes. They despised communists. They were only willing to talk when alone and in English of course.

I think that the middle class, if they were able, would want to demand democratic concessions. They are not able though in a totalitarian police state with very advanced surveillance.

The idea that trade wars do more harm than good is of course correct from an economic perspective. It would cost us dearly to decouple China.

I believe that that cost is acceptable if it makes it so that my grandchildren won't have to live in a world dominated by an evil totalitarian police state.

[Threviel]

At the very least all hidden Chinese barriers to trade should be treated like for like. The 50% ownership of companies in China is obvious of course.

My company tried to, because of environmental reasons, re-use the black plastic trays that electronics came delivered on.

Could not do it, the company we dealt with understood why and there were no technical reasons. It's just that they could not convince the party officials on why they should be allowed to source that material from us when it would be cheaper to buy new from another Chinese company.

I'm quite sure that there are thousands examples like that where China puts up minor unofficial trade barriers.

[celedhring]

Oh, all the educated Chinese I've met over the years have little time for the CCP, but they're educated Chinese that I've met abroad, not sure how representative they are of their middle class.

[grumbler]

Oh, all the educated Chinese I've met over the years have little time for the CCP, but they're educated Chinese that I've met abroad, not sure how representative they are of their middle class.

The bulk of the Chinese exchange students I've talked to are very much aware of how corrupt and repressive things are in China, but see it as just the way Chinese do politics.  They generally think that representative democracy is just a western thing.  They'll play the game and hope to get rich.

[Monoriu]

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening. 

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening. 

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution.

Perhaps that will change if rapid economic growth continues and the proportion of well-off families increases? Right now gdp per capita is still only about $10,000 ... so many must be delighted to be out of poverty and focussed on car ownership or whatever; if it gets to $30,000 their priorities might change. Taiwan and Singapore are democracies after all, with a greater value placed on good order than other Western countries perhaps.

[Threviel]

Taiwan, Korea and Singapore were not ruled by totally ruthless leaders with the technological ability to control every aspect of the populations lives. Perhaps in a generation or five the leadership might mellow to less ruthless. Or perhaps not.

I for one would not want my family in an extermination camp and my materially comfortable life destroyed by standing first in line in a new Tiananmen Square revolt.

[Monoriu]

Taiwan, Korea and Singapore were not ruled by totally ruthless leaders with the technological ability to control every aspect of the populations lives. Perhaps in a generation or five the leadership might mellow to less ruthless. Or perhaps not.

I for one would not want my family in an extermination camp and my materially comfortable life destroyed by standing first in line in a new Tiananmen Square revolt.

Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore all had organised opposition, and a certain degree of civil society like independent NGOs.  All these are not present in Mainland China now.

In the 80s, there was a political reform wing of the communist party.  They cooperated with the students in Tiananmen Square in 1989.  The main consequence of Tiananmen was the complete destruction of that wing.  The party's lesson learned of Tiananmen is never back down on political matters.

[Monoriu]

If you asked me 10 years ago I'd have thought that free trade and exposure to the west would ultimately move the emergent Chinese middle class to demand democratic concessions, but so far it doesn't seem to be happening. 

I don't know why you think that way.  There are indeed plenty of Chinese middle class families who want democracy.  But the solution to that problem is to move to the West, not to start a revolution.

Perhaps that will change if rapid economic growth continues and the proportion of well-off families increases? Right now gdp per capita is still only about $10,000 ... so many must be delighted to be out of poverty and focussed on car ownership or whatever; if it gets to $30,000 their priorities might change. Taiwan and Singapore are democracies after all, with a greater value placed on good order than other Western countries perhaps.

I think a lot of rich provinces and major cities have already reached $30k in GDP per capita.  There are a lot of people who think the party is repressive etc, but there are also a huge number of people who are very nationalist.