Will world inaction help al-Qaida gain foothold in Syria?

[jimmy olsen]

Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/13/13256145-will-world-inaction-help-al-qaida-gain-foothold-in-syria?lite

Will world inaction help al-Qaida gain foothold in Syria?

NEWS ANALYSIS

Richard Engel, NBC News' chief foreign correspondent, has just left Syria after spending three weeks reporting on rebel forces in the north of the war-torn country.  Based on his three weeks of reporting, he offers an analysis of what could happen if the international community does not intervene in the conflict.

ISTANBUL, Turkey – Al-Qaida units are already entering Syria.

Pickup trucks waving their black flags and carrying hard-looking men are increasingly evident on Syrian country roads.

It wasn't like this just a few weeks ago.  A year-and-a-half ago, Syrian rebels started the fight to topple President Bashar Assad's corrupt police state and end four decades of sectarian favoritism. The majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims but they have been ruled by Assad's Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

Rebel forces claim to have downed a Syrian fighter jet

The rebels have watched Russia arm the government. They have seen Shiite Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah send fighters and military advisors to help Assad.

They have also watched the United Nations send observers without authority, and the United States make what seem to many appear to be toothless condemnations.

So al-Qaida, the world's most extremist Sunni group, is offering itself as a solution, a savior of the revolution.  It is arriving flush with money and weapons, as I reported last week.

I have spoken with rebel units who told me they were offered large amounts of money, in exchange for pledging allegiance to al-Qaida. But it comes with a caveat: they can not leave. One rebel commander told me that one of his relatives had joined al-Qaida and tried to leave – but was executed for his apparent treason.

Still others are taking up the opportunity.

"I will go to [al-Qaida], and raise their flag if they give me support," one rebel told me.

"I'd take money from al-Qaida.  What choice do I have?  I can't defend myself or my family," another rebel commander said.  "I'll take the al-Qaida support, and then deal with them later.  Otherwise there won't be a later."


He's the most secular Syrian I know.  He hates al-Qaida, but feels he may have to deal with the devil to save his family and village.

Even the most secular rebel groups say they're tempted, and no wonder.  I've seen rebels at checkpoints with empty magazines in the rifles.  They have homemade grenades in pipes and shaving cream cans.

It's easy to forget that without international support, the rebels in Libya would have lost the war and been massacred.  And the Syrian rebels are asking for much less than what was given to Libya.  They don't want ground troops, although they would take a no-fly zone, if offered.  All they're really asking for is ammunition and a few hundred anti-aircraft and anti-tank rockets. 

Meanwhile, the United States says it doesn't know who to arm, and that it doesn't want to give weapons to the wrong people.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar are believed to be arming Syrian rebels, and the United States and Britain pledged to step up non-lethal assistance to Assad's opponents, many say this is far from enough.

The United States, rebels say, is paralyzed because of the upcoming presidential elections.  Washington can't take decisive action because of November's vote, many rebels contend.

So while the vast majority of rebels hate the idea of an al-Qaida base in Syria, they also don't want Assad to stay in power and continue his killing spree.  And international inaction may give the United States' worst enemy a gift that it has always wanted – a base at the heart of the Middle East.

And this would be a danger to Syria, its neighbors, and the United States.

[Viking]

Well, world inaction helped fascism and communism gain a foothold in Spain. But that's not important, as long as we are not involved in the killing we can pretend we are morally superior.

[Tamas]

I am quite convinced that religious fundamentals with foreign support will be players in Syria. What I am hoping for, though, is that if left alone, they will end up like in Iraq, where the local tribes just kicked them out because they were major assholes.

If Christians go in to help with them, it will just make it impossible for the locals to side against them.

And Syria may have been a hellhole, but it has been a mostly secular hellhole AFAIK. So anyone trying to enforce a Taliban regime will find some serious opposition, especially with a population armed to the teeth.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I am quite convinced that religious fundamentals with foreign support will be players in Syria. What I am hoping for, though, is that if left alone, they will end up like in Iraq, where the local tribes just kicked them out because they were major assholes.

If Christians go in to help with them, it will just make it impossible for the locals to side against them.

And Syria may have been a hellhole, but it has been a mostly secular hellhole AFAIK. So anyone trying to enforce a Taliban regime will find some serious opposition, especially with a population armed to the teeth.

christians will leave Syria. Just as they're leaving most of the middle-east.

[Tamas]

Christians as in the USA.

[Razgovory]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this.  Where exactly are these "Al-Qaida" guys coming from?  Where are they getting money and weapons?

[Tamas]

They are the Tea Party of the muslim world

[HisMajestyBOB]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this.  Where exactly are these "Al-Qaida" guys coming from?  Where are they getting money and weapons?

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar are believed to be arming Syrian rebels, and the United States and Britain pledged to step up non-lethal assistance to Assad's opponents, many say this is far from enough.

[CountDeMoney]

What, remove a secularist strongman from his dictatorship?  GEE WHAT COULD HAPPEN

[Razgovory]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this.  Where exactly are these "Al-Qaida" guys coming from?  Where are they getting money and weapons?

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar are believed to be arming Syrian rebels, and the United States and Britain pledged to step up non-lethal assistance to Assad's opponents, many say this is far from enough.

I read "Saudi Arabia and Qatar are believed to be arming the Syrian rebels" as the their respective governments.

[MadImmortalMan]

What, remove a secularist strongman from his dictatorship?  GEE WHAT COULD HAPPEN

Like most of the rest of the Arab Spring, I'm guessing theocracy.

[KRonn]

My thinking is that if AQ types are operating in Syria, then they'll eventually meet serious opposition from many of the Rebels, and others if/when the Syrian govt falls. I think Syria is too far advanced culturally to put up with radical actors for too long. Similar to as happened in Iraq, and elsewhere. AQ probably tried in Libya also, and it appears they failed there.

They could do their thing in Afghanistan and Somalia as I'd think they were such broken nations with an even bigger vacuum that AQ could fill.

[CountDeMoney]

My thinking is that if AQ types are operating in Syria, then they'll eventually meet serious opposition from many of the Rebels, and others if/when the Syrian govt falls.

I'm thinking Hezbollah would have a rather strong position on the issue.

[citizen k]

US says Iran forming pro-regime militia in Syria
Mathieu Rabechault (AFP)


The United States on Tuesday accused Iran of setting up a pro-regime militia in Syria as Washington increasingly ties the crisis there to interference by its long-time foe Tehran.

Western powers are already locked in a diplomatic stand-off with Iran over what they say is its plan to develop nuclear weapons, and tensions are high between US and Iranian patrols in the oil shipping lanes of the Gulf.

Iran and Syria are long-standing allies and joint sponsors of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, but the formation of an Iranian-backed force inside Syria would mark a new and dangerous chapter in an already bloody conflict.

Rights groups say more than 23,000 people have been killed in 17 months of fighting between troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces, including civilians killed in the regime's brutal crackdown.

"It is obvious that Iran has been playing a larger role in Syria in many ways," US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said at a joint press conference with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey.

Panetta said the United States has evidence that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are "trying to develop, trying to train a militia within Syria to be able to fight on behalf of the regime."

"We are seeing a growing presence by Iran and that is of deep concern to us. We do not think that Iran ought to play that role at this moment in time, that's dangerous... It's adding to the killing that's going on in Syria."

Panetta urged Tehran to stay out of the conflict, saying: "Our hope is that Iran thinks better about how much they do want to get involved. The Syrian people ought to determine their future, not Iran."

Last week, Syrian rebels captured 48 Iranians they accused of supporting the regime. Tehran admitted that some of the men were "retired" Revolutionary Guards, but insisted they were on a religious pilgrimage.

The Revolutionary Guards, an elite military organization, has a history of sponsoring armed groups abroad in order to further Iran's interests.

Apart from Hezbollah, a powerful Shiite armed faction in Lebanon, Iran has also been accused of supporting various Shiite militias in Iraq, such as elements of the Mahdi Army of firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Hezbollah has proved one of Israel's deadliest foes in clashes in southern Lebanon and stands accused of carrying out bomb attacks around the world. The Mahdi Army at times bitterly resisted the former US occupation of Iraq.

The US administration had already accused Hezbollah of lending aid to Assad's embattled regime, and Dempsey said the new militia is based on the model of the Mahdi Army and has Shiite and Alawite recruits.

Assad's regime is dominated by figures from his Alawite minority, a sub-branch of Shiite Islam, and the defections of several senior Sunni Muslim officials in recent weeks has sharpened the country's sectarian divide.

The bulk of the rebels are from Syria's Sunni majority, and both sides have been accused of attacks on members of rival communities.

The US officials said Syria's army has been weakened by desertions and defections within its top hierarchy.

"The Syrian army has been fighting now for about 18 months or so. And any army would be taxed with that kind of pace," Dempsey said, adding he expected that the Syrian military was experiencing resupply and morale problems.

"That's why Iran is stepping in to form this militia, to take some of the pressure off of the Syrian military."

Panetta said that Washington would continue to provide humanitarian aid to Syria refugees, to monitor the regime's chemical weapons stockpile and to send "non-lethal" supplies to the rebels.

He added that some of the United States' regional allies would provide "more aggressive assistance to the opposition as well" -- an apparent reference to reported arms shipments from Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Syria Freedom Fighters Catch Hezbollah Sniper "Sent By Nasrallah to Kill Sunnis" 8-13-12:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0Ty2IEYZu8

[Neil]

Al-Qaida's no threat.