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Egypt news

Started by Sheilbh, August 12, 2012, 10:27:42 AM

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Sheilbh

Interesting developments. Morsi's reportedly retired Tantawi and cancelled the SCAF's supplementary constitutional decree, which gave the military very wide powers.

Being Egypt, no one knows if his is a very bold move indeed or a back room deal.
Let's bomb Russia!

Sheilbh

He's also appointed a very prominent reformist judge as one of his VPs.

It's very smart timing after the Sinai debacle.
Let's bomb Russia!

KRonn

So the military has more power, which is probably good for the short term for helping push more democratic ideas. However as in Turkey, where the military was taken down a notch and the Islamists are gaining power which may lessen democratic ideas, I fear the same in Egypt sooner than later unless a  democratic system is well entrenched in place.

Sheilbh

As the day's gone on the perspective's shifted.

The military-judiciary deep state revoked Parliament (where the MB didn't have a majority) and approved the old constitution which gave the President vast powers.

Morsi seems to have conducted an internal coup within the SCAF. Tantawi and his deputy were replaced by young members of the SCAF with more support within the military. Interestingly both are known to the US and, apparently, Morsi ensured that Peres was informed in advance.

At the same time Morsi's promoted a reformist judge as VP.

Meanwhile the elected Parliament's still dissolved and the constitutional decree of the deep state (reserving lots of power for the military) has been abolished making Morsi legally as powerful as previous Egyptian presidents.

He's promising a speedy constitutional convention and a new Parliament. But I think two striking things are that democracy should generally be left to work (the non-MB Parliament would be sitting and, ironically, the Tantawi wing of the Egyptian military would still be in more power) and that the institutional and charismatic power of the presidency, in a presidential system, is difficult to resist.

Also worth noting is that Morsi's become an apparently very strong and charismatic speaker. As with Putin in Russia, that matters.

My impression remains that Egypt's still a post-revolutionary mess, but a hopeful one.
Let's bomb Russia!

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Sheilbh on August 12, 2012, 08:00:40 PM
My impression remains that Egypt's still a post-revolutionary mess, but a hopeful one.

That's sweet.

Tamas

Thanks for the summary Sheilbh.

So basically the Muslim Brotherhood has the all-powerful presidential position now, unless the army starts a full-blown military coup. And that I guess is unlikely, as the public would probably be quick to rally against it.
Soo, we need to see the MB relinquish most of the power they desperately fought for since who knows when.  Or they can stick to it and become THE force in the muslim world if they do it right.

:hmm:

jimmy olsen

Not looking good Shelf

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/23/15384363-egyptian-protesters-police-clash-as-morsi-defends-wide-new-powers?lite

QuoteEgyptian protesters, police clash as Morsi defends wide new powers

By NBC News staff and wire reports

Updated at 5:05 p.m. ET: Opposition protesters clashed with police in several Egyptian cities Friday after new Islamist President Mohammed Morsi awarded himself sweeping new powers.

Police fired tear gas in an attempt to disperse tens of thousands of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the center of anti-regime protests that ousted longtime U.S.-backed leader Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

"The people want to bring down the regime," shouted protesters, echoing a chant used in the anti-Mubarak uprising. "Get out, Morsi," they chanted.

State TV also said Morsi opponents set fire to Muslim Brotherhood offices in the Suez Canal cities of Suez, Port Said and Ismailia.

Clashes also erupted between police and opposition protesters in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, the southern city of Assiut and in Giza, the sister city of the capital. In Alexandria, Morsi opponents hurled stones at Brotherhood supporters outside a mosque and stormed a nearby office of the group.

However, Muslim Brotherhood backers gathered in front of the presidential palace in northern Cairo to support Morsi -- illustrating a widening gulf over Egypt's future.

Wide powers
Buoyed by accolades from around the world for mediating a truce between Hamas and Israel, Morsi on Thursday ordered that an Islamist-dominated assembly writing the new constitution could not be dissolved by legal challenges.

Other changes give Morsi power to take security measures to protect his position, which rights groups say are like new emergency laws.
Quote
    Bel Trew - بل ترو @Beltrew
    Protesters have burned a CSF (police truck) tear gas very heavy now, #Egypt #Tahrir
    23 Nov 12
Morsi belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood until he ran for the presidency and still depends on the group for political support.

On Friday, Morsi confirmed that he will move forward on his plans because he insisted they were for the good of the country.

"I am for all Egyptians. I will not be biased against any son of Egypt,'' Morsi told the crowd outside the presidential palace, adding that he was working for social and economic stability and the rotation of power.

"Opposition in Egypt does not worry me, but it has to be real and strong,'' he said in response to his critics.

Morsi also said Friday that his government would pay $5,000 to the families of those who died in the protests to oust Mubarak and $3,333 to those who were injured.
Quote
joseph dana @ibnezra

Tahrir square is flooding with protesters. Street battles on at least two streets. #egypt t.co/cEozlmnf
23 Nov 12

'New pharaoh'
The changes, announced late Thursday, prompted outrage among secularists and liberals.

Mohammed ElBaradei, a prominent pro-democracy figure and former head of the U.N.'s nuclear agency, accused Morsi of declaring himself a "new pharaoh."

QuoteMohamed ElBaradei@ElBaradei

Morsi today usurped all state powers & appointed himself Egypt's new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that cld have dire consequences
23 Nov 12
"Morsi today usurped all state powers and appointed himself Egypt's new pharaoh," ElBaradei said on Twitter. "A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences."

"Morsi a 'temporary' dictator','' was the headline in the independent daily Al-Masry Al-Youm.

The U.S. State Department signaled its concern Friday over Morsi's declarations.

"One of the aspirations of the revolution was to ensure that power would not be overly concentrated in the hands of any one person or institution," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. "The current constitutional vacuum in Egypt can only be resolved by the adoption of a constitution that includes checks and balances, and respects fundamental freedoms, individual rights, and the rule of law consistent with Egypt's international commitments."

Nuland called for calm and for all parties in Egypt to resolve differences through "democratic dialogue."

Meanwhile, the United Nations expressed serious concerns Friday about human rights and stability in Egypt.

"We are very concerned about the possible huge ramifications of this declaration on human rights and the rule of law in Egypt," Rupert Colville, U.N. Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay's spokesman, told a news briefing at the United Nations in Geneva. "We also fear this could lead to a very volatile situation over the next few days, starting today in fact."

Morsi's decree is also bound to worry Western allies, particularly the United States, a generous benefactor to Egypt's army.

NBC News' Charlene Gubash, Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Phillip V

Oust Morsi and install a Coptic Christian Queen.

Sheilbh

It's not looking good - personally I still think the problem was the military dismissing the elected Parliament because they didn't like it and the judiciary agreeing.  It was sort of the transition's original sin and meant that Morsi's the only really elected element (with the Constitutional Assembly) while the new constitution's being written. 

There were problems with the judiciary and there are other real problems that Morsi's addressed.  All of this would be fine if, as one writer put it, he becomes an Egyptian Cincinnatus.

But at this point it looks a bit like he may have over-reached.  The popular response has been far greater than I think was expected.  I don't think the MB have much support within the Egyptian security state yet - from what I've read - so one thing to watch for is if they start forming their own security force, which could happen especially if the police and army don't help them enough.

Another thing is that liberal and Mubarakist Egyptians have, for some time, argued that there's a US-MB conspiracy going on.  The Gaza ceasefire, followed by Morsi's declaration, followed by the limp US statement will feed that view on the non-MB wing of Egyptian politics.
Let's bomb Russia!

Razgovory

What a shame. :(  The Gaza cease fire, gave me some real hope.  It looked like the new Egyptian government might play a positive role in a Palestinian peace.  Hamas seemed to respect Morsi and listened to his advice, and I was hoping that meant he could help mediate between the US, Israel and Hamas.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Razgovory on November 24, 2012, 06:35:41 AM
What a shame. :(  The Gaza cease fire, gave me some real hope.  It looked like the new Egyptian government might play a positive role in a Palestinian peace.  Hamas seemed to respect Morsi and listened to his advice, and I was hoping that meant he could help mediate between the US, Israel and Hamas.

Stop being an infant.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Razgovory on November 24, 2012, 06:35:41 AM
What a shame. :(  The Gaza cease fire, gave me some real hope.  It looked like the new Egyptian government might play a positive role in a Palestinian peace.  Hamas seemed to respect Morsi and listened to his advice, and I was hoping that meant he could help mediate between the US, Israel and Hamas.
I don't think there's necessarily any link between Morsi's democratic credentials and his foreign policy.  So you can go on hoping.

On Gaza he had no choice but played the situation very, very well.
Let's bomb Russia!

Viking

#12
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2012, 06:20:39 AMAnother thing is that liberal and Mubarakist Egyptians have, for some time, argued that there's a US-MB conspiracy going on.  The Gaza ceasefire, followed by Morsi's declaration, followed by the limp US statement will feed that view on the non-MB wing of Egyptian politics.

I feel tempted to post Daniel Pipes' article on conspiracy theories in the middle east... well, I succumbed..

http://www.danielpipes.org/214/dealing-with-middle-eastern-conspiracy-theories

QuoteWhile the conspiracy mentality exists in all regions of the world, it is outstandingly common in the Middle East. Few there resist its impact; leading politicians, religious figures, intellectuals, and journalists espouse wild fears of world domination by enemies. These ideas have a home at the heart of the political spectrum and therefore influence the tenor of Middle East political life. Nothing is so false that someone will not believe it; and transparent silliness does not reduce the importance of conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy theories spawn their own discourse, complete in itself and virtually immune to rational argument. Five assumptions distinguish the conspiracy theorist from more conventional patterns of thought: appearances deceive; conspiracies drive history; nothing is haphazard; the enemy always gains; power, fame, money, and sex account for all.

In the Middle East, moreover, almost every speculation about the hidden hand ultimately refers back to two grand conspirators: Zionists and imperialists. And imperialism, of course, means primarily the U.S. government. Communists and others come into consideration only to the extent they ally with one of these two principals.

That the U.S. government is blamed for so much that goes wrong in the Middle East means that the fear of conspiracy in the Middle East has many implications for the U.S. government. Much of the region's anti-Western, anti-Israeli, anti-democratic, anti-moderate, and anti-modern behavior results from fears of clandestine forces.

The U.S. government should integrate conspiracy theories into its reporting, briefing, and negotiating activities. It should also consider exploiting opportunities created by the conspiracy mentality.

Now with Iran, HizbAllah and HAMAS declaring victory on the grounds that assuming an Israeli Conspiracy to do unspeakable things to the people of Gaza victory is obvious since unspeakable things were not done.
First Maxim - "There are only two amounts, too few and enough."
First Corollary - "You cannot have too many soldiers, only too few supplies."
Second Maxim - "Be willing to exchange a bad idea for a good one."
Second Corollary - "You can only be wrong or agree with me."

A terrorist which starts a slaughter quoting Locke, Burke and Mill has completely missed the point.
The fact remains that the only person or group to applaud the Norway massacre are random Islamists.

Razgovory

Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2012, 07:40:57 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 24, 2012, 06:35:41 AM
What a shame. :(  The Gaza cease fire, gave me some real hope.  It looked like the new Egyptian government might play a positive role in a Palestinian peace.  Hamas seemed to respect Morsi and listened to his advice, and I was hoping that meant he could help mediate between the US, Israel and Hamas.
I don't think there's necessarily any link between Morsi's democratic credentials and his foreign policy.  So you can go on hoping.

On Gaza he had no choice but played the situation very, very well.

Not his democratic credentials, but rather his Islamist stance.  His democratic credentials helped him with the West.  His Islamism helped him with Hamas.  He made a good bridge.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Razgovory

Quote from: Viking on November 24, 2012, 09:04:19 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 24, 2012, 06:20:39 AMAnother thing is that liberal and Mubarakist Egyptians have, for some time, argued that there's a US-MB conspiracy going on.  The Gaza ceasefire, followed by Morsi's declaration, followed by the limp US statement will feed that view on the non-MB wing of Egyptian politics.

I feel tempted to post Daniel Pipes' article on conspiracy theories in the middle east... well, I succumbed..

http://www.danielpipes.org/214/dealing-with-middle-eastern-conspiracy-theories

QuoteWhile the conspiracy mentality exists in all regions of the world, it is outstandingly common in the Middle East. Few there resist its impact; leading politicians, religious figures, intellectuals, and journalists espouse wild fears of world domination by enemies. These ideas have a home at the heart of the political spectrum and therefore influence the tenor of Middle East political life. Nothing is so false that someone will not believe it; and transparent silliness does not reduce the importance of conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy theories spawn their own discourse, complete in itself and virtually immune to rational argument. Five assumptions distinguish the conspiracy theorist from more conventional patterns of thought: appearances deceive; conspiracies drive history; nothing is haphazard; the enemy always gains; power, fame, money, and sex account for all.

In the Middle East, moreover, almost every speculation about the hidden hand ultimately refers back to two grand conspirators: Zionists and imperialists. And imperialism, of course, means primarily the U.S. government. Communists and others come into consideration only to the extent they ally with one of these two principals.

That the U.S. government is blamed for so much that goes wrong in the Middle East means that the fear of conspiracy in the Middle East has many implications for the U.S. government. Much of the region's anti-Western, anti-Israeli, anti-democratic, anti-moderate, and anti-modern behavior results from fears of clandestine forces.

The U.S. government should integrate conspiracy theories into its reporting, briefing, and negotiating activities. It should also consider exploiting opportunities created by the conspiracy mentality.

Now with Iran, HizbAllah and HAMAS declaring victory on the grounds that assuming an Israeli Conspiracy to do unspeakable things to the people of Gaza victory is obvious since unspeakable things were not done.

I reckon he would know, after all he buys into the conspiracy bullshit that Obama is or was a Muslim.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017