The State of Affairs in Russia

[Jacob]

Too bad Amnesty International is full of morons.

Do you have any particular examples in mind?

[The Brain]

No one takes Amnesty International seriously. They think throwing people in gaol for refusing to do military service is a bad thing FFS.

[garbon]

No one takes Amnesty International seriously. They think throwing people in gaol for refusing to do military service is a bad thing FFS.

[garbon]

Organisations like this are akin to prosecutors or defense attorneys in a court trial - they are to present one side of the case to the judge.

Well presumably prosecutors/defense attorneys aim to do so without insulting the intelligence of the judge.

[Martinus]

Not sure if you two are trolling.

[The Brain]

PETA, ACLU and Greenpeace pretty much define retardism. You yourself threw in Amnesty with them.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Let's not exaggerate what is going on.  The Russians have extended full de facto control over what they already had partial de facto control (Crimea).  And they have their proxies in control of 2 out of Ukraine's remaining 23 provinces.  We can't know for certain what the cost is of all this but it is high.  Crimea is an utter economic basket case now, and alone will probably cost around $5 billion/year in subsidies.  Sustaining Donetsk/Lugansk will be far more costly than that, and that is not taking into account the very substantial costs for the military operations there.  And then there are Russian soldier casualties likely in the hundreds, and growing.  All in the context of a very gloomy economic context for Russia - Chinese primary commodity demand sharply down, weak demand from the EU, plummeting oil prices, sanctions, continuing demographic deterioration and brain drain. 

Putin may be playing chess but if so he is trying clever mid-game tactics after a poor opening.  Russia is far worse off than pre-Maidan; it has exchanged a position of strong influence over all Ukraine to de facto control over a couple rump provinces and the implacable hatred and suspicion of much of the rest. 

Putin is not a Hitler, or even a Napoleon; he is not plotting world conquest.  Everything he has done makes sense if one assumes the perspective that the West has been engaged in a steady and coherent policy of eroding Russian power and extending the boundaries of its alliance system to the Russian border, and if one assumes that Russian policy is designed to be purely reactive to this as a spoiler.  I am not saying that perspective represents a reality (there is no such coherent policy), only that it is perfectly reasonable to infer that Putin truly believes that and is acting accordingly.

I also think that while Putin has obvious talents in some areas he is economically ignorant. His almost neo-mercantilist type comments and his blase attitude about the economic problems in his country makes me think that his ultimate feeling is the economy isn't super important. It'll all sort itself out eventually. I don't think he acknowledges or understands the long term economic problems Russia is facing, especially since his power base is largely based on people that are super wealthy from stealing money, so to that inner circle minor things like rampant inflation and such just doesn't matter.

Aside--I find it interesting the "Axis of We Hate America", countries like Iran, Russia and Venezuela seem to think China is going to be their big check against America. The issue with that is China genuinely isn't interested in a global proxy war against the United States (war of words or any other kind.) China isn't the Soviet Union during the Cold War that bankrolled essentially failed Communist States around the world. China has bailed out Venezuela, but when they came with their hat out again the Chinese were like "okay, what are you doing to make your economy better? When can you pay this back? What is our return on investment?" Venezuelans got sent home with empty hands the second time. China is trying to create an alternative to traditional development banks and the IMF (not out of opposition but largely because America has ironclad veto control of the existing institutions and China dislikes that), but they really aren't going to be in the business of coming out on the short end of a deal with say, Venezuela, just because Venezuela's leader bashes America. The Chinese see us as rivals in some areas and important partners in others, and they certainly aren't going to just sign on the prop up Venezeula's unmaintainable economic regime.

Russia likely would never want to see itself as a "junior" to China, but there is an expectation I think that any sanctions from the West can easily be ameliorated with trade with China. The issue is, the Chinese don't care about "helping" Russia in its conflict with the West. If Russia wants to do more business, China is happy to do it--and also happy to demand price concessions because they know that Russia really has nowhere else to go so China can and has made them take a haircut.

[CountDeMoney]

U.S., NATO troops parade near Russian border in Estonia

TALLINN, Estonia — Troops and vehicles from U.S. and NATO regiments have taken part in a military parade during Estonia's Independence Day near the Russian border, in the first known official appearance of the forces so close to the former Cold War enemy.

Some 1,400 Estonian and multinational troops participated in the Tuesday parade in the eastern border town of Narva, separated from Russia by a narrow river. The annual independence parade is rotated between various Estonian towns.

It was the first time that American soldiers — based in the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — have paraded so close to the Russian border.

Estonia's military said Wednesday the usual flyovers by NATO fighters during such parades were not held because international regulations forbid military flights near international borders.

[Valmy]

Michael Roos we are here!

[Ed Anger]

RT: AMERICAN SHOCK TROOPS PLAN TO INVADE RUSSIA

[DGuller]

It's RT, it's bullshit. 

[Jacob]

So it's being reported that Russia was planning to annex Crimea before Yanukovich fell: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/26/world/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea-annexation.html?_r=0

[Barrister]

Too bad Amnesty International is full of morons.

Not really, they aren't. Just as any other goal-oriented NGO, such as PETA, ACLU or Greenpeace, they comment on reality strictly from the perspective of their specific agenda. I think a lot of misunderstanding of their actions comes from the fact that people expect them to act like an impartial arbiter or a policy maker, that would be supposed to balance different principles - that's not their purpose. Their purpose is to offer a point of view so that it is taken into account by policy makers - not to offer solutions.

Organisations like this are akin to prosecutors or defense attorneys in a court trial - they are to present one side of the case to the judge.

I'll have you know that my job is to present all relevant evidence to the judge - good and bad.  By doing so that gives me much more credibility with the judge than if I was a narrow partisan in the courtroom.

[Jacob]

Too bad Amnesty International is full of morons.

Not really, they aren't. Just as any other goal-oriented NGO, such as PETA, ACLU or Greenpeace, they comment on reality strictly from the perspective of their specific agenda. I think a lot of misunderstanding of their actions comes from the fact that people expect them to act like an impartial arbiter or a policy maker, that would be supposed to balance different principles - that's not their purpose. Their purpose is to offer a point of view so that it is taken into account by policy makers - not to offer solutions.

Organisations like this are akin to prosecutors or defense attorneys in a court trial - they are to present one side of the case to the judge.

I'll have you know that my job is to present all relevant evidence to the judge - good and bad.  By doing so that gives me much more credibility with the judge than if I was a narrow partisan in the courtroom.

Same for Amnesty International.

Even if the media sometimes portray things differently.

[Admiral Yi]

Since I didn't read their report, I can't say for sure, but I'm very dubious that Amnesty laid out all the fantastic benefits of increased surveillance, reduced civil liberties, etc.