The State of Affairs in Russia

[Valmy]

What has Putin done in the last two decades that would make you think he would dumb enough to just outright invade in such a manner?

I think the chances are about 0.00001% but I keep hearing how Russia is going to invade the Baltics and NATO is going to let them.  Which seems insane.

[Syt]

If anything, Russia will stir up shit with the Russian minorities in those countries and destabilize them that way.

[CountDeMoney]

It would all eventually go nuclear anyway, so why not.

Russia would nuke us over Estonia?

Does Putin seem like the type of man to you that would get his ass handed to him by NATO right on his doorstep, chalk it up as a "whoopsie" and just call it a day? yourself.

[Valmy]

Does Putin seem like the type of man to you that would get his ass handed to him by NATO right on his doorstep, chalk it up as a "whoopsie" and just call it a day? yourself.

LOL ok whatever crazy man.  There are plenty of face-saving maneuvers Putin could do short of having Russia be blown to ashes.

[Berkut]

What has Putin done in the last two decades that would make you think he would dumb enough to just outright invade in such a manner?

I think the chances are about 0.00001% but I keep hearing how Russia is going to invade the Baltics and NATO is going to let them.  Which seems insane.

The concern is that Russia does the same thing they've done several times now - forment instability with Russian minorities in target countries, send in troops under the guise of "volunteers" or "local militia", and just create hell and then attempt to "negotiate a settlement".

The idea here is trying to take advantage of presumed NATO reluctance to actually go to war over countries like Estonia or Latvia, so he just has to create enough ambiguity to avoid an obvious invocation of Article 5.

This is pretty standard great game politics - Russia would be trying to test the NATO alliance, and see if they are serious about their guarantees to countries that frankly were allowed into the alliance at a time that everyone thought the military need for that protection was moot.

As people have said before, it seems like Putin is playing chess while the west is playing checkers. We are certainly hurting them with the sanctions, no doubt, but it doesn't seem to be dissuading them at all, and it wouldn't if we have fundamentally misunderstood the reasons for why Putin and Russia are acting in the manner that they are acting.

[Berkut]

Does Putin seem like the type of man to you that would get his ass handed to him by NATO right on his doorstep, chalk it up as a "whoopsie" and just call it a day? yourself.

LOL ok whatever crazy man.  There are plenty of face-saving maneuvers Putin could do short of having Russia be blown to ashes.

There are plenty of things Putin could have done already to avoid the Russian economy being blown to ashes, but he hasn't done them.

I am not very keen on relying on Putin's sense of restraint and rationality as a check on nuclear war.

[CountDeMoney]

Does Putin seem like the type of man to you that would get his ass handed to him by NATO right on his doorstep, chalk it up as a "whoopsie" and just call it a day? yourself.

LOL ok whatever crazy man.  There are plenty of face-saving maneuvers Putin could do short of having Russia be blown to ashes.

What demonstrable changes have you witnessed in Russian strategic thought that has led you to believe that Russian nuclear weapons policy versus NATO has changed since 1991? 

P.S.  You fucking mutt.

[Syt]

The Soviet memorial in Vienna has been defaced with black paint. Last year part of the memorial plaque was painted in Ukrainian colors.

The Russian embassy has filed a protest and urges the Austrian government to take steps to make sure it never happens again.

The memorial:



I wonder if the Soviet part of the main cemetery still looks like crap (but apparently the embassy doesn't care about it when it's out of the way of the common Vienna visitor).

[Jacob]

This is pretty standard great game politics - Russia would be trying to test the NATO alliance, and see if they are serious about their guarantees to countries that frankly were allowed into the alliance at a time that everyone thought the military need for that protection was moot.

I'm guessing the Baltic countries didn't think it was moot at the time, though the membership of NATO at the time probably did as you suggest.

As people have said before, it seems like Putin is playing chess while the west is playing checkers. We are certainly hurting them with the sanctions, no doubt, but it doesn't seem to be dissuading them at all, and it wouldn't if we have fundamentally misunderstood the reasons for why Putin and Russia are acting in the manner that they are acting.

Yeah pretty much.

That said, I don't think people are misunderstanding as much as hoping.

[The Minsky Moment]

Let's not exaggerate what is going on.  The Russians have extended full de facto control over what they already had partial de facto control (Crimea).  And they have their proxies in control of 2 out of Ukraine's remaining 23 provinces.  We can't know for certain what the cost is of all this but it is high.  Crimea is an utter economic basket case now, and alone will probably cost around $5 billion/year in subsidies.  Sustaining Donetsk/Lugansk will be far more costly than that, and that is not taking into account the very substantial costs for the military operations there.  And then there are Russian soldier casualties likely in the hundreds, and growing.  All in the context of a very gloomy economic context for Russia - Chinese primary commodity demand sharply down, weak demand from the EU, plummeting oil prices, sanctions, continuing demographic deterioration and brain drain. 

Putin may be playing chess but if so he is trying clever mid-game tactics after a poor opening.  Russia is far worse off than pre-Maidan; it has exchanged a position of strong influence over all Ukraine to de facto control over a couple rump provinces and the implacable hatred and suspicion of much of the rest. 

Putin is not a Hitler, or even a Napoleon; he is not plotting world conquest.  Everything he has done makes sense if one assumes the perspective that the West has been engaged in a steady and coherent policy of eroding Russian power and extending the boundaries of its alliance system to the Russian border, and if one assumes that Russian policy is designed to be purely reactive to this as a spoiler.  I am not saying that perspective represents a reality (there is no such coherent policy), only that it is perfectly reasonable to infer that Putin truly believes that and is acting accordingly.

[Zanza]

Let's not exaggerate what is going on.  The Russians have extended full de facto control over what they already had partial de facto control (Crimea).  And they have their proxies in control of 2 out of Ukraine's remaining 23 provinces.  We can't know for certain what the cost is of all this but it is high.  Crimea is an utter economic basket case now, and alone will probably cost around $5 billion/year in subsidies.  Sustaining Donetsk/Lugansk will be far more costly than that, and that is not taking into account the very substantial costs for the military operations there.  And then there are Russian soldier casualties likely in the hundreds, and growing.  All in the context of a very gloomy economic context for Russia - Chinese primary commodity demand sharply down, weak demand from the EU, plummeting oil prices, sanctions, continuing demographic deterioration and brain drain. 

Putin may be playing chess but if so he is trying clever mid-game tactics after a poor opening.  Russia is far worse off than pre-Maidan; it has exchanged a position of strong influence over all Ukraine to de facto control over a couple rump provinces and the implacable hatred and suspicion of much of the rest. 

Putin is not a Hitler, or even a Napoleon; he is not plotting world conquest.  Everything he has done makes sense if one assumes the perspective that the West has been engaged in a steady and coherent policy of eroding Russian power and extending the boundaries of its alliance system to the Russian border, and if one assumes that Russian policy is designed to be purely reactive to this as a spoiler.  I am not saying that perspective represents a reality (there is no such coherent policy), only that it is perfectly reasonable to infer that Putin truly believes that and is acting accordingly.

[Malthus]

Let's not exaggerate what is going on.  The Russians have extended full de facto control over what they already had partial de facto control (Crimea).  And they have their proxies in control of 2 out of Ukraine's remaining 23 provinces.  We can't know for certain what the cost is of all this but it is high.  Crimea is an utter economic basket case now, and alone will probably cost around $5 billion/year in subsidies.  Sustaining Donetsk/Lugansk will be far more costly than that, and that is not taking into account the very substantial costs for the military operations there.  And then there are Russian soldier casualties likely in the hundreds, and growing.  All in the context of a very gloomy economic context for Russia - Chinese primary commodity demand sharply down, weak demand from the EU, plummeting oil prices, sanctions, continuing demographic deterioration and brain drain. 

Putin may be playing chess but if so he is trying clever mid-game tactics after a poor opening.  Russia is far worse off than pre-Maidan; it has exchanged a position of strong influence over all Ukraine to de facto control over a couple rump provinces and the implacable hatred and suspicion of much of the rest. 

Putin is not a Hitler, or even a Napoleon; he is not plotting world conquest.  Everything he has done makes sense if one assumes the perspective that the West has been engaged in a steady and coherent policy of eroding Russian power and extending the boundaries of its alliance system to the Russian border, and if one assumes that Russian policy is designed to be purely reactive to this as a spoiler.  I am not saying that perspective represents a reality (there is no such coherent policy), only that it is perfectly reasonable to infer that Putin truly believes that and is acting accordingly.

Putin isn't Hitler. If one wanted an analogy, the better one would be Mussolini, pre-WW2.

Like Mussolini, Putin has been making easy conquests of basket-case provinces purely to boost national pride - while spending a fortune in doing it; like Mussolini, the West's feeble response is leading some to conclude he's some sort of political/strategic genius in getting away with such aggression; like Mussolini, he has plenty of admirers. 

There are of course differences, like the fact he's armed with nukes ...

[DGuller]

Let's not exaggerate what is going on.  The Russians have extended full de facto control over what they already had partial de facto control (Crimea).  And they have their proxies in control of 2 out of Ukraine's remaining 23 provinces.  We can't know for certain what the cost is of all this but it is high.  Crimea is an utter economic basket case now, and alone will probably cost around $5 billion/year in subsidies.  Sustaining Donetsk/Lugansk will be far more costly than that, and that is not taking into account the very substantial costs for the military operations there.  And then there are Russian soldier casualties likely in the hundreds, and growing.  All in the context of a very gloomy economic context for Russia - Chinese primary commodity demand sharply down, weak demand from the EU, plummeting oil prices, sanctions, continuing demographic deterioration and brain drain. 

Putin may be playing chess but if so he is trying clever mid-game tactics after a poor opening.  Russia is far worse off than pre-Maidan; it has exchanged a position of strong influence over all Ukraine to de facto control over a couple rump provinces and the implacable hatred and suspicion of much of the rest. 

Putin is not a Hitler, or even a Napoleon; he is not plotting world conquest.  Everything he has done makes sense if one assumes the perspective that the West has been engaged in a steady and coherent policy of eroding Russian power and extending the boundaries of its alliance system to the Russian border, and if one assumes that Russian policy is designed to be purely reactive to this as a spoiler.  I am not saying that perspective represents a reality (there is no such coherent policy), only that it is perfectly reasonable to infer that Putin truly believes that and is acting accordingly.

I hope you are right, but I think you are misreading Putin.  I think Putin has been gearing up for a power play for quite a while now, and Maidan was the event that finally forced him to make his move.  I personally don't think he's done making his moves yet.  I watched Russian news for the last 1.5 years;  you don't whip up such an overheated propaganda for a quick military adventure.  You do it for the long campaign.

[Tonitrus]

If Yanukovych stuck around, I tend to think Putin would have been content that his plant/puppet was there.  He probably had his eye on Crimea, and was content to let it be with his "proxy" state, but I agree, I think the Maidan event somewhat forced his hand to go for the land grab.  Maybe earlier than he wanted...but they were definitely ready for the contingency.

Hell, I even believe that it is likely that most of the people in Crimea and the rebel-held areas probably would support going with Russia if they held a fair vote (assuming it were appropriate to hold one).  But this whole thing has been botched to hell by all sides involved. 

Russia's in too deep to hold back now...Ukraine has to hold on to all that it can, and the U.S. can only "pew pew" economically from the sidelines.  And the EU probably isn't willing to go balls-to-the-wall on the economic front.

[Martinus]

If Yanukovych stuck around, I tend to think Putin would have been content that his plant/puppet was there.  He probably had his eye on Crimea, and was content to let it be with his "proxy" state, but I agree, I think the Maidan event somewhat forced his hand to go for the land grab.  Maybe earlier than he wanted...but they were definitely ready for the contingency.

Hell, I even believe that it is likely that most of the people in Crimea and the rebel-held areas probably would support going with Russia if they held a fair vote (assuming it were appropriate to hold one).  But this whole thing has been botched to hell by all sides involved. 

Russia's in too deep to hold back now...Ukraine has to hold on to all that it can, and the U.S. can only "pew pew" economically from the sidelines.  And the EU probably isn't willing to go balls-to-the-wall on the economic front.

You make it sounds like Putin has always had Crimea/Donetsk as plan B (or even a long term plan). I disagree.

I think he was caught completely off guard by the Maidan (and even more so by the fact that Yanukovych failed to deal with it properly), and Crimea was a complete spur of a moment thing for him (of course, like any major country, I bet Russia had a number of various tactical scenarios ready and one of them included "capture Crimea" but it was not something that was seriously considered until Maidan happened). He did it to save face and to throw a monkey wrench into what seemed like a complete disaster for him, i.e. losing Ukraine to the EU and eventually the NATO.

I agree with JR that Putin does not want to conquer the world - but he wants to rebuild the Russian empire. This is impossible without controlling Ukraine, so he is trying to get as much of it as possible before it slips away from him (and failing that, he will be content if he leaves it smoldering, like a failed state that noone wants).

As JR said, you are giving Putin too much credit - it is quite common to ascribe foresight retroactively to someone's actions.