The State of Affairs in Russia

[Admiral Yi]

Not sure why Germany is always singled out regarding gas when half the EU is similarly exposed to Russian gas. Would all of these countries cave or is there something specific about German gas consumption that does not exist in the other countries?

Welcome to the unfairness of prominence.  The US has always been singled out for sucking Saudi dick, even though 80% of the Gulf's oil goes to Asia.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah my impression he's like the anti-Jimmy Carter - his time in office was not bad, it's just out of office that he's trashed his reputation.

I think it's because Germany is seen as being able to pull the other countries along with it, and to change the direction of EU policy towards Russia, more so than the other countries involved.

Yeah Germany's a big country and a leader - I saw a German commentator describe Berlin's policy to Ukraine (which has moved more clearly in the last few weeks) as Germany playing its favourite game: pretending it's Switzerland Of big countries I think Italy has also come in for criticism, but is probably perceived as less important.

I also think all of those other gas consuming countries are opposed to Nord Stream II for obvious reasons, which I think is another big driver of the criticism of Germany specifically.

[Sheilbh]

On the Xi - Putin bromance... I saw a thing recently that noted that China still hasn't recognized the Russian annexation of Crimea

I wonder if that's just consistency - China's is always non-interference in another country's internal affairs. Russia makes the same point but geopolitically trolls Western policy by comparing Crimea to Kosovo (or positioning intervention in Syria as "responsibility to protect"); while China recognises neither.

[Jacob]

Welcome to the unfairness of prominence.  The US has always been singled out for sucking Saudi dick, even though 80% of the Gulf's oil goes to Asia.

Well... the US does supply significantly more advanced military equipment to the Saudi military than Asia does?

[Zanza]

I do think that if Germany said "we are putting political will and money towards a project of lessening our dependence on Russian gas", I think it would change the political calculus significantly more than if any of the other countries on the map did so. But if I was the government of any of the other countries, I would consider orienting my energy policy to lessen the dependence on Russian gas. Who knows when Putin will decide to turn of the gas?

I guess that's actually a good point. According to the German press, which is rather critical of the Russia policy, Germany is the only EU country without a LNG harbor. This is seen as a major weakness here. Not sure how fast one could build such a harbor. Seems feasible.

[DGuller]

Welcome to the unfairness of prominence.  The US has always been singled out for sucking Saudi dick, even though 80% of the Gulf's oil goes to Asia.

Does it really matter physically where the oil from any particular place goes?  It seems like a question of logistics to me more than anything, it's fungible like money.  If Gulf's oil becomes more expensive, then so does the oil from wherever it is that US gets it.

[Sheilbh]

Does it really matter physically where the oil from any particular place goes?  It seems like a question of logistics to me more than anything, it's fungible like money.  If Gulf's oil becomes more expensive, then so does the oil from wherever it is that US gets it.

Yeah and I think US policy was influenced by the fact it was the world's biggest oil importer - similarly I think it's probably important that's now China and America's now a net exporter.

[Jacob]

I guess that's actually a good point.

According to the German press, which is rather critical of the Russia policy, Germany is the only EU country without a LNG harbor. This is seen as a major weakness here. Not sure how fast one could build such a harbor. Seems feasible.

That seems like a good idea to me, no matter what direction Germany takes.

[Zanza]

I think it's because Germany is seen as being able to pull the other countries along with it, and to change the direction of EU policy towards Russia, more so than the other countries involved.

Yeah Germany's a big country and a leader - I saw a German commentator describe Berlin's policy to Ukraine (which has moved more clearly in the last few weeks) as Germany playing its favourite game: pretending it's Switzerland Of big countries I think Italy has also come in for criticism, but is probably perceived as less important.

Maybe it's just my view from Germany, but Germany does not seem to be a leader or have significant foreign policy influence. Sure, we are bigger than the other countries in the EU and thus have weight in common decisions. Also German interests are often aligned with our neighbours and where that is the case, Germany as the biggest country looks like a leader. But when there is actual opposition there seems to be little power. The last incident I ca  think of where Germany actually exerted foreign policy power was during the Euro crisis. And it is still massively resented for that.

[Jacob]

Maybe it's just my view from Germany, but Germany does not seem to be a leader or have significant foreign policy influence. Sure, we are bigger than the other countries in the EU and thus have weight in common decisions. Also German interests are often aligned with our neighbours and where that is the case, Germany as the biggest country looks like a leader. But when there is actual opposition there seems to be little power. The last incident I ca  think of where Germany actually exerted foreign policy power was during the Euro crisis. And it is still massively resented for that.

Part of being a leader is being resented for the decisions you take

And yeah, Germany is a reluctant leader but a leader nonetheless.

[Sheilbh]

I think that's the point - Germany is a leader because of its size and its economy. During the Merkel era I think Germany was also a leader because of Merkel's credibility/influence obviously that doesn't transfer to the new guy automatically but is built up over time - remember all the slightly cringeworthy "leader of the free world" press after Trump was elected. Germany isn't a leader because of what it does but because of what it is - one of the biggest economies in the world, the biggest country in the EU, a major NATO partner and a pivotal country in Europe. I think the criticism is that Germany's policy often doesn't match its role.

So absolutely, other countries slide beneath the radar but I think that is the reality - and not choosing or not leading is also a choice and also has consequences. To not be a leader or have significant foreign policy influence is a choice given Germany's position and one that can give the impression that German policy-makers have no strategy beyond economic interests.

But the mismatch between policy and role matters - Austria or Switzerland or Hungary can not do anything and it doesn't really matter and isn't noticed that much. When a country as important and big as Germany doesn't respond in quite the same way as other allies I think it leads to perhaps outsize criticism - so you see American or Polish foreign policy people online wondering if Germany is actually an ally or whether corporate/economic interests would win out. But that's because of how much Germany matters.

It would be exactly the same if the UK had the same policy as Germany on Ukraine - we would have a million thinkpieces about the influence of Russian money and Brexit and Britain withdrawing from Europe etc. Same with France - it would be about neo-Gaulism etc. That's just because they're big economies and big countries on a small continent.

[Zanza]

If the assumption is that Germany will in doubt go for its economic interests, you can rest assured. Russia does not matter besides natural gas. We have more trade with Hungary  Russia is our 14th biggest trading partner.

The criticism that Germany does not match its role of course assumes that if it would assert its power it would match the foreign policy goals of the criticizing country. Just remember the Iraq War when Germany - in hindsight correctly - defied the wishes of the US. Or the many differences we have with Poland.

Based on German history, in doubt I prefer us passive to assertive.

[Sheilbh]

If the assumption is that Germany will in doubt go for its economic interests, you can rest assured. Russia does not matter besides natural gas. We have more trade with Hungary  Russia is our 14th biggest trading partner.

The criticism that Germany does not match its role of course assumes that if it would assert its power it would match the foreign policy goals of the criticizing country. Just remember the Iraq War when Germany - in hindsight correctly - defied the wishes of the US. Or the many differences we have with Poland.

Iraq was a coalition of the willing though.

Isn't the rest just part of being in the Western alliance? Isn't that basically the difference between countries that are committed parts of that alliance and, say, Hungary or Turkey? Germany is an ally because its goals, aims and policy are aligned.

Based on German history, in doubt I prefer us passive to assertive.

I think there is almost certainly a huge amount of hypocrisy from a lot of Germany's critics who dislike Germany's passive role but would also lose their shit if Germany wasn't passive.

For what it's worth I think personally that Germany has an important leadership role and I think its policy should reflect that reality. That doesn't necessarily mean that Germany should be assertive but it has a fundamental role to play in Europe and - especially if America does want to pivot to Asia - in European defence. That may be playing more of a support role or more through institutions like the EU or NATO.

[Berkut]

I think WW2 was a fucking long time ago, and neither Germany or Japan should worry about that one tiny little bit anymore.

Personally.

Japan is a bit more problematic then Germany, but in both cases there are neighbors of both that have shown themselves to be radically more of a concern as threats to world peace then either of those countries as they exist today.

[Syt]

I think WW2 was a fucking long time ago, and neither Germany or Japan should worry about that one tiny little bit anymore.

Disagree, considering there is a party in Germany that pulls 10+% in federal elections and significantly higher in various state elections, where leading members
- consider the Third Reich "a negligible bit of bird poop" in Germany's history
- were outraged because Germany is the only country that would put "a monument of shame" in their capital (referring to the holocaust memorial)
- called for a 180° turn in the national memorial culture in that context