The State of Affairs in Russia

[Sheilbh]

Truth is Ukraine is way too volatile to be a NATO let alone an EU member and that's not only the West's and Russia's failure, that's Ukraine's failure as well. Plus like every other single non-Ukrainian person living in a NATO country -despite whatever Gaijin's media tells him- I do NOT want Ukraine as a NATO member. That doesn't mean Russia should be given free reign over them, however. With just a bit of luck (for the ROTW not Ukrainians and Russians, who are fucked), it will become a decades-long resource sink for Russia, delaying that much the day when they will be coming for the Baltic States.

So I think we agree

But you're right and it shows. Ukrainian GDP per capita only got to about 80% of what was in 1990 in 2007, and they've more or less stagnated since. The comparison with countries who had a similar GDP per capita in 1990 (Russia, Poland, Turkey) is really grim. The other side where I do think the West - and particularly the UK bears a higher responsibility is in facilitating the looting of that country and others. I think the 90s in Ukraine were even worse than they were in Russia.

I agree on not letting Ukraine into NATO - but I think as the Finlandisation example shows, being an in-between-place doesn't necessarily mean the Ukrainian experience of the last 30 years and I hope that they can move to a bit more of a Finland situation.

[crazy canuck]

Indeed, this is the reality: Despite decades of blather that's still being repeated, Ukraine hasn't been welcomed into NATO. All the assurances Kyiv was given about how Ukraine's territorial integrity and political independence would be respected in exchange for the surrender of the country's nuclear arsenal – promises that include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances – were nothing but hollow. A generation of Ukrainians was duped, and they should have known better.

Yeah way to encourage nuclear proliferation world. I hope fucking Ukraine is worth it.

So 1980s of you.  Hate to break it to you, but its already here.

[Berkut]

Is there anyone not in Ukraine who thinks Ukraine should actually be invited into NATO?

I think that is an argument looking for someone to argue against.

The only circumstances that I could imagine where Ukraine is in NATO is if Russia is in it as well.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Is there anyone not in Ukraine who thinks Ukraine should actually be invited into NATO?

I think that is an argument looking for someone to argue against.

The only circumstances that I could imagine where Ukraine is in NATO is if Russia is in it as well.

For the first time I believe, I'd agree with you.

[Sheilbh]

It's US and NATO policy since 2008. My understanding is that it took a fair bit of pressure from the Bush administration to get that agreed:

The United States continues to support NATO's decision in the 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration, reaffirmed ever since, including in the June 2021 Brussels Summit, that Georgia and Ukraine will become NATO members", the US Department of State said.

And from the NATO communique of June:

We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process; we reaffirm all elements of that decision, as well as subsequent decisions, including that each partner will be judged on its own merits.  We stand firm in our support for Ukraine's right to decide its own future and foreign policy course free from outside interference.

It's why Georgia decided they needed to solve the Abkhazia and South Ossetia issues - which of course led to the Russian invasion.

I don't think it's going to happen and I think it has a bigger impact in Ukrainian politics than it does on the heads of NATO governments re-iterating those statements, which is probably pro-forma by now. I think we probably should be honest with Ukraine on this.

[crazy canuck]

Is there anyone not in Ukraine who thinks Ukraine should actually be invited into NATO?

I think that is an argument looking for someone to argue against.

The only circumstances that I could imagine where Ukraine is in NATO is if Russia is in it as well.

Well, NATO for one - from the 2008 Bucharest meeting official statement, point 23.

NATO welcomes Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO.  We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.  Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations.  We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May.  MAP is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership.  Today we make clear that we support these countries' applications for MAP.  Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications.  We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting.  Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm

[DGuller]

I wonder what the logic is of announcing that you'll have Ukraine and Georgia in NATO at some point, but not now.  Doesn't that basically put a clock on Russia to fuck them up before they become untouchable?

[Sheilbh]

Yes.

I think it was Bush. Iraq had failed but there'd been the colour revolutions and Saakashvili and it looked like Ukraine, Serbia and Georgia was where the Bush/neo-con/"spreading democracy" agenda might be vidndicated. Obviously it was before the conflict in Georgia or the invasion of Ukraine, so Putin gave his speech about challenging Western/US hegemony but I don't think it was taken seriously and I think it was just assumed that this was all progress and irreversible.

In retrospect, I think it was hubristic - and absolutely did put a target on Georgia and Ukraine.

[Berkut]

Yeah, that is a pretty dumb move.

I don't see it is realistic now or then. The only way that could make actual sense would be if Russia was basically completely non-belligerent towards the West, or Russia was a LOT more belligeret towards the West.

[Admiral Yi]

Is there anyone not in Ukraine who thinks Ukraine should actually be invited into NATO?

I think that is an argument looking for someone to argue against.

The only circumstances that I could imagine where Ukraine is in NATO is if Russia is in it as well.

I am in favor of Ukraine joining NATO.

Ukraine is basically a defensive alliance against Russia.  Ukraine is threatened by Russia, they have an army, and they are willing to fight.  That's more than can be said for most current NATO members.

[Valmy]

In retrospect, I think it was hubristic - and absolutely did put a target on Georgia and Ukraine.

Oh it was very hubristic at the time, not just in retrospect. It was not like we were all observing Bush back then thinking "wow this seems like a great idea".

[Jacob]

I am in favor of Ukraine joining NATO.

Ukraine is basically a defensive alliance against Russia.  Ukraine is threatened by Russia, they have an army, and they are willing to fight.  That's more than can be said for most current NATO members.

And you're thinking it's worth starting a fight with Russia over that?

[Admiral Yi]

And you're thinking it's worth starting a fight with Russia over that?

What an odd way to put it. 

Ukraine joining would not be "starting a fight."  It would be preparing for a fight if Russia wants to start one.

[Sheilbh]

And you're thinking it's worth starting a fight with Russia over that?

Exactly. It's a mutual defence pact. The point isn't whether they're willing to fight - we're not forming a gang - but are we will to fight for them even if that means war with Russia. I think realistically, the honest is answer is no - we should absolutely help them be able to defend themselves but I don't think we should lead them on about this.

And as I say I think the repeated reiteration that Ukraine will join NATO is cheap for heads of government in Brussels. I think it's hugely important for people in Ukraine and shapes politics - possibly forcing some into more confrontational postures in the expectation that NATO has their back, for others who are attached to Russia it makes things for them feel more existential.

[Admiral Yi]

How can willingness to fight *not* be an issue in a mutual defense pact?