The State of Affairs in Russia

[Solmyr]

Why would Russia invade Ukraine? Because Putin lives in his own fantasy world, where the Soviet Union did nothing wrong and its disintegration was the greatest catastrophe in history, and where Ukrainians are not an actual separate people but just Russians with a funny accent. Some people keep assuming that Putin is a rational actor, when there are plenty of indications (based on what Putin himself has said) that he's not.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

You guys do realise that I'm quoting an independent investigation, and you know there had been a bloody civil war in Georgia in the 90s? Which is why the UN-sanctioned peace keeping force was there.

I do not.  Your link's conclusion was that "Georgia started the fighting."  You said "Georgian agression."  That's not a quote, that's spin.

Interesting. A quote:

"In the Mission's view, it was Georgia which triggered off the war when it attacked Tskhinvali (in South Ossetia) with heavy artillery on the night of 7 to 8 August 2008," said Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, who led the investigation.

Isn't the statement "attack with heavy artillery" a synonym to the word "aggression?"

I understand the emotional connotations, but calling it a spin? Not sure.

Isn't an attack with heavy artillery an act of aggression?

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Why would Russia invade Ukraine? Because Putin lives in his own fantasy world, where the Soviet Union did nothing wrong and its disintegration was the greatest catastrophe in history, and where Ukrainians are not an actual separate people but just Russians with a funny accent. Some people keep assuming that Putin is a rational actor, when there are plenty of indications (based on what Putin himself has said) that he's not.

I'm sorry, but if this is the level of western strategy planning, we're in trouble.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

If we are to be completely fair, we should mention that Russians were not just neutral observers in that war.  They were on the side of anyone who was against Georgia, which included the perpetrators of ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia.

In my example, I as a member of the Russian army was delivering food (humanitarian aid) to Georgian villages. You may discard my personal experience as irrelevant, or assume I'm lying for whatever reason.

Also, to quote the Swiss diplomat Tagliavini: "None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation."

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The report you cite does not claim that Georgia was the aggressor, merely that its actions triggered the war (rather than a new Russian invasion, as Georgia claimed).  Countries acting to suppress rebellion are not generally considered the aggressors.  Countries that support breakaway states are considered aggressive.  Russia would certainly consider a Georgian that moved troops into Chechnia in support of a rebellion to be the aggressor.

As I mentioned before, in my world an attack with heavy artillery is an act on aggression. Also in my version of the truth, killing international peace keepers deployed in accordance with official agreements is a crime.

You may see things differently.

The Chechnya's example doesn't work as it didn't have an international peace keeping force positioned along an official demarcation line.

The conflict in Georgia began in the 1990s right after the fall of the USSR, and Georgia had agreed to the peacekeeping force being there.

Of note: In a twist of poetic justice, Saakashvili who ordered this attack is now in a Georgian prison.

[Tamas]

Anyone here have access to the full article?

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situation-report/russia-ukraine-russian-forces-redeploy-westward-european-security-talks-falter

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Redeploy Westward as European Security Talks Falter
MIN READJan 12, 2022 | 20:20 GMT

Echelons and equipment from all four armies of Russia's Eastern Military District are being transported west from the Russian Far East, presumably to areas near the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders,

They will be protecting Kiev from Ukrainian aggression.


Especially as the NATO offensive continues in its buildup:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-hackers

[Gaijin de Moscu]

My bet:

After a few weeks of sabre-rattling from all sides, Russia won't invade Ukraine and NATO will pat itself on the back for preventing an impending aggression which wasn't planned.

Everyone happy.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

You may have seen it... and sorry if this offends someone's sensitivity... I just mean this as a silly political satire.

[jimmy olsen]

Russians increasing activity in the baltics

https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-sweden-baltic-sea-3fe414014136ed6d26519faee497cbe3

[jimmy olsen]

US intelligence says Russia has inserted operatives into Eastern Ukraine with the aim of creating a false flag attack that will justify an attack

US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html

[Jacob]

I guess if that's how it plays out then it's less subtle than we've assumed. Putin really is saying (and means) "you've put me in a corner, if you don't give me some concessions I'll do something drastic" and - if the false flag operatives lead to an actual invasion - it'll be "they started it (but look what you made me do)."

If that's what is happening there are two questions for me:

1. The big one, obviously, how it'll play out. Presumably the Ukrainians will fight, the West will level massive sanctions at Ukraine, Finland may apply to NATO and so on.

2. The things that shaped this genuine belief to the degree it seems reasonable for Putin to act like this. Is it ideological? Is there some internal element in Russia that makes this the most reasonable action? Something else?

[Tamas]

Is there any reason to think Putin's position (or how he perceives it) has been weakened internally? What else this whole show (not to mention a possible war) could be good for him apart from shoring up his support?

[DGuller]

I'll go back to my theory that it's not so much that something changed recently, but rather Putin sees an opening for a goal that has long been on his to-do list.  He probably had designs on seizing Ukraine one way or another for the entirety of his tenure, but sometimes you just have to wait for an opening to materialize before you can make your move.  The plan for seizing Crimea was probably in the works for many years as well, but obviously you couldn't execute it while Yanokovich was in power (and you wouldn't need to execute it if Yanokovich or the like continued being in power).

[Legbiter]

How long can the Russians keep a massive army on a war footing in the middle of winter? Also invading Ukraine would turn little brother into an implacable foe, cementing the very situation (extremely hostile Ukraine) Putin's supposedly trying to prevent.  At best he gets some assurances from NATO about not admitting Ukraine, at worst the Russians slaughter the Ukrainians and get left with a godawful multi-generational mess right on their doorstep.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

US intelligence says Russia has inserted operatives into Eastern Ukraine with the aim of creating a false flag attack that will justify an attack

US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html

Funny that Russians are saying the opposite. They're expecting a false flag chemical attack in eastern Ukraine to justify a NATO casus belli against Russia.

I do hope the intelligence services of both countries are collaborating these days to prevent a disaster.