The State of Affairs in Russia

[The Minsky Moment]

Doom?

https://en.desk-russie.eu/2021/12/30/what-does-the-russian-ultimatum.html

Batty hysterical stuff.

Biden is not going to sign those treaties and there is zero chance they would be approved if he somehow signed by accident. The world will not end because Biden and Putin have a phone call.  Putin is not an idiot and is aware that even though "Russtrat think tank" is touting Russia's "digitization" and gold reserves, in real life the Russian economy is still swirling around the toilet bowl, with GDP still below 2008 levels.  He also probably knows that the Russian army is not the world leader in anything other than casualties sustained by recruits in hazing incidents and "accidentally" shot down civilian airliners.

[The Brain]

Angels have sex?

[Jacob]

That's pretty wild. Putin's about to start all out nuclear war if the US doesn't completely abandon Europe?

I guess all we have to do is wait a few weeks or a month to see if the apocalypse arrives.

[The Brain]

our nuclear war

OK Commie.

[The Minsky Moment]

Angels have sex?

It's a Byzantine thing.  You wouldn't understand.

[The Brain]

Angels have sex?

It's a Byzantine thing.  You wouldn't understand.

Are we talking Bible correct angels, or sexy ones?

[Berkut]

Doom?

https://en.desk-russie.eu/2021/12/30/what-does-the-russian-ultimatum.html

Batty hysterical stuff.

Biden is not going to sign those treaties and there is zero chance they would be approved if he somehow signed by accident. The world will not end because Biden and Putin have a phone call.  Putin is not an idiot and is aware that even though "Russtrat think tank" is touting Russia's "digitization" and gold reserves, in real life the Russian economy is still swirling around the toilet bowl, with GDP still below 2008 levels.  He also probably knows that the Russian army is not the world leader in anything other than casualties sustained by recruits in hazing incidents and "accidentally" shot down civilian airliners.

I don't think it is hysterical at all.

This goes back to what I was saying before. The problem with jingoist nationalist bullshit is that it is a domestic ploy more often then not, and even if they don't really believe it, they can be forced into a position where they have to act like they do regardless.

I think the actually suggestions in the article about what to do are pretty clear and reasonable.

1. Stop meeting with them. It doesn't appear to help.
2. Say nothing, do nothing, but don't give in. Just reiterate US and Western positions that have not changed, and don't acknowledge the blackmail as what it is either.

Don't fly to Munich.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe. I still think it's incredibly difficult to read intentions here.

I wouldn't take the Russians at their word on this as an ultimatum - you don't release documents like this unles it's a starting point for negotiations and Russia historically has always taken an extreme and intransigent position at the start of negotiations. It's not normal to publish texts like this. In part there's performance but also I think they just want to force the pace of things (and I think one of the key factors driving it that may push an invasion is the sense in Russia's leadership that they have a limited window of opportunity before Russia stops being relevant on security issues even in Europe). It still doesn't seem clear whether this is build up to a war (though my guess is not) or an attempt at coercive diplomacy.

The terms are absurd of course. It could be an ultimatum, it could be an attempt to generate a pretext for conflict, or it could be a very aggressive opening bid. But - if you want a war in Ukraine it feels like it wouldn't be difficult to generate a pretext in Ukraine and it still seems weird to me that if you want a conflict in Ukraine that you'd entangle it in a wider argument with NATO rather than try to further isolate Ukraine. And if you wanted a war with Ukraine wouldn't you have already gone rather than the pretty public build-up lasting a month or two - on a purely practical level what's the window for Russia doing something while it's frozen and more easy v mud? Because it feels like that is a real limit on it being an easy quick win.

I agree about not doing summits especially at the leadership level, but I think it's probably worth engaging at a lower level and basically trying to turn it into a long, drawn-out, technical process. That would obviously need deterrent at the same time. For example practically speaking Ukraine is not going to join NATO - certainly not in the foreseeable future. We don't need to commit to some treaty saying that but can probably work out some agreement of no NATO expansion in the next 10 years - that's not giving Russia anything that isn't already reality for example (and shouldn't preclude commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and our right to support that country and provide with arms and training etc).

It's probably worth noting that Russian coverage of Putin's New Year's press conference was not particularly hysterical or focused on preparing the Russian population for war. It was another of what was, according to some Russia analysts, until the last month was the striking thing about Putin's rhetoric this year which has been the social turn. The coverage was focused on his stuff about the economy and, in particular, raising living standards which seems strange if they were planning to start a war. Similarly there's been rumours that the defence minister Shoygu might be moved to a domestic portfolio - again an odd thing if you're prepping for a war (but would make sense if there's any truth to the rumours about positioning him as a post-Putin leader).

Edit: Although apparently Scholz trying to arrange a meeting this month with Putin to "reset" relations is not helpful - and I wasn't really under the impression that German-Russian relations were in need of a reset

[Razgovory]

Doom?

https://en.desk-russie.eu/2021/12/30/what-does-the-russian-ultimatum.html

Batty hysterical stuff.

Biden is not going to sign those treaties and there is zero chance they would be approved if he somehow signed by accident. The world will not end because Biden and Putin have a phone call.  Putin is not an idiot and is aware that even though "Russtrat think tank" is touting Russia's "digitization" and gold reserves, in real life the Russian economy is still swirling around the toilet bowl, with GDP still below 2008 levels.  He also probably knows that the Russian army is not the world leader in anything other than casualties sustained by recruits in hazing incidents and "accidentally" shot down civilian airliners.

It is batty ,yes, but as a joke it falls flat.

[Zanza]

Edit: Although apparently Scholz trying to arrange a meeting this month with Putin to "reset" relations is not helpful - and I wasn't really under the impression that German-Russian relations were in need of a reset

Any details about that? I have not read anything about a "reset" in the German press. Normally Scholz stands for continuity...

[Sheilbh]

Not sure - I can't find the original tweet. But I literally posted here, went to Twitter and saw a journalist doing a story on Scholz wanting a meeting

And in his defence I think almost every Western leader elected in the last 15 years or so has wanted to try a meeting with Putin to "reset" relations.

[mongers]

Heard an interesting view* from a US prof, missed his name but he was from a East Coast university and/or think-tank, it was Putin has misread the USA because of two factors, namely the US acquiescing in Nordsteam-2 sanctions being lifted and the 'precipitous' withdrawal from Afghanistan shows the US as weak and it doesn't have the political will power to stand firm against Russia.

The chap said Putin thinks the exit from Afghanistan is as significant for the US as the 1989 one was for the future of the Soviet Union, so there's opportunity to be exploited.


* it was on Al Jazeera English.

[mongers]

Not sure - I can't find the original tweet. But I literally posted here, went to Twitter and saw a journalist doing a story on Scholz wanting a meeting

And in his defence I think almost every Western leader elected in the last 15 years or so has wanted to try a meeting with Putin to "reset" relations.

I think Salisbury wants to reset it's relationship with Putin, it might possibly involve poison. 

[Sheilbh]

Heard an interesting view* from a US prof, missed his name but he was from a East Coast university and/or think-tank, it was Putin has misread the USA because of two factors, namely the US acquiescing in Nordsteam-2 sanctions being lifted and the 'precipitous' withdrawal from Afghanistan shows the US as weak and it doesn't have the political will power to stand firm against Russia.

The chap said Putin thinks the exit from Afghanistan is as significant for the US as the 1989 one was for the future of the Soviet Union, so there's opportunity to be exploited.


* it was on Al Jazeera English.

I think that's right - I'd also add Biden's speech post-Afghanistan which I think is incredibly significant where he basically said the US was now only intervening when its "vital interests" are in play and basically set out the consequences of the pivot to Asia. Dealing with China and the Pacific is the primary focus of the US and anything else is, at best, secondary.

I think part of this is Putin testing that.

[Jacob]

The repercussions from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan are pretty muted, aren't they?

Also, I think there are a reasonable amount of political points for the Democrats to go hawkish on Russia, especially if Russia invites it - though perhaps my understanding is superficial.