Go Now

[Sheilbh]

Brown set for election wipeout
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown

Analysis shows the Gordon Brown is heading for a humiliating third place in next month's local elections
David Smith, Isabel Oakeshott and Jonathan Oliver

GORDON BROWN, battered by revelations over ministerial expenses and a series of embarrassing climbdowns, is heading for a humiliating third place in next month's local elections.

An analysis for The Sunday Times by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, the election experts, shows Labour is trailing the Liberal Democrats as well as the Tories as it heads into the June 4 elections in 34 English local authorities.

They predict Labour will lose all four of the councils it controls and half the 500 seats it is defending. Senior aides have warned Brown that if Labour comes third in the elections next month, a challenge to his leadership is almost inevitable.

It comes as more Labour ministers and backbenchers faced embarrassing disclosures about taxpayer-funded expenses. Hazel Blears, the communities secretary, faces questions over the sale of a flat she had designated as a second home. She made a profit of £45,000 on the sale but paid no capital gains tax.

Kitty Ussher, a work and pensions minister, carried out a £20,000 makeover on her run-down Victorian townhouse using taxpayer-funded expenses.

A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts the Tories on 43%, up two points on last month, with Labour down seven on 27% and the Liberal Democrats up two on 18%. It predicts Labour will get barely more than a fifth of the vote in European parliament elections, also to be held on June 4.

The prime minister suffered a new blow this weekend as a top Labour official, who had played a key role in Brown's elevation to No 10, labelled him a "disaster". Peter Watt, former party general secretary, said: "At the moment the government appears to have absolutely no direction."

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Watt lifts the lid on the prime minister's behaviour behind closed doors, accusing him and Harriet Harman, his deputy, of sacrificing colleagues for political gain.

"Publicly, Gordon talks about values and his moral compass, but actually the way he conducts himself behind the scenes is anything but that - it's brutal," Watt said.

"This is Gordon's politics: when things go wrong, you find someone to blame and you blame them hard. That's what he does. The last 10 years is littered with people who've been cast asunder."

Brown is expected to carry out a reshuffle immediately after the polls to repair his authority. Among ministers forecast to be demoted or axed are Jacqui Smith, the home secretary, and Blears.

Party whips believe an "unholy alliance" has been created from left-wing rebels and Blairite former ministers, which could lead to a challenge to the prime minister if the elections are disastrous for Labour. Another poll, for The Mail on Sunday, puts Labour on 23%, 22 points behind the Tories.

One whip said: "There are strong signs that they are talking to each other about what they should do after June 4."

Up to 120 Labour MPs — half of the backbench party — are expected to sign a letter this week calling for Brown to reconsider plans to part-privatise the Royal Mail. The petition, to be signed by members from all wings of the party, will be one of the biggest acts of rebellion since Labour came to power.

Brown is expected to make an emergency statement to the parliamentary Labour party in an attempt to persuade MPs that he has a coherent plan for the party's recovery.

His aides worry that if the "solid centre" of the party begin to fear for their seats at the general election, support for a contest could snowball. Alan Johnson, the health secretary, remains the favourite to succeed as a "stop the rot" candidate.

Some Labour ministers also face being questioned by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) over whether they should have paid tax on profits they made from the sale of second homes.

Blears sold a property in Kennington, south London, in August 2004 for £200,000, making a profit of £45,000. She had designated the flat a second home with the Commons authorities, allowing her to claim expenses on the property. She is reported to have admitted paying no capital gains tax on the profit.

Some MPs are thought to avoid capital gains tax when they sell their second homes by claiming the property is their main home and consequently exempt from the tax. Commons rules allow MPs to change the property designated as their main home at will.

John Hutton, the defence secretary, switched his main home to a rented cottage in his constituency so he could fund a £730,000 London terraced house on his parliamentary expenses. He had previously said his main home was in London. He claimed £66,707 against the new London property over three years.

Sir Alistair Graham, former chairman of the committee on standards in public life, also questioned whether MPs' expenses should be exempt from tax. "Some of these items are what they would have spent their normal income on so how can they justify claiming tax relief on it? There is no reason now why the normal rules shouldn't apply to MPs. The sheer scale of what has been taking place overwhelms you. Nobody's got clean hands."

Andy Burnham, the culture secretary, has confirmed this weekend that he claimed more than £32,000 in one year without paying a penny in tax. Under HMRC rules, expenses are taxed unless they are "wholly, exclusively and necessarily" incurred in the course of employment. MPs voted themselves a special tax break in the Income Tax Act 2003, which means they are exempt.

The Taxpayers' Alliance is due to submit a dossier of complaints to John Lyon, the parliamentary commissioner for standards. Among the claims it wants scrutinised are those of Burnham, James Purnell, Blears and Margaret Moran. All say they comply with the rules.

Moran, a backbench Labour MP, came under scrutiny yesterday after allegedly spending £22,500 of taxpayers' money on treating dry rot at the coastal property she had designated her second home — even though it is 100 miles from her Luton South constituency. Yesterday she said the allegations were inaccurate and potentially actionable.

  They need to go, and now

[The Brain]

Brown set for election wipeout

American Wipeout is great. Australian Wipeout is also good. British Wipeout sucks man ass (wtf just one commentator? no fucking banter!). Swedish Wipeout is actually hilarious (against all odds) and it is way more edgy than the Anglo-Saxon ones. Lots of ethnic and sex jokes.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm rooting for the Chamberlain-Landsdowne-Milner coalition.

[Olive]

I totally agree with this. Great read. Thanks for posting.