Coup claimed as Egyptian court orders parliament dissolved!

[Sheilbh]

I'm naturally skeptical of what being able to put large numbers in the street really signifies. The army has the guns, and I don't think through the arab spring anyone has yet successfully challenged an arab military and prevailed without western intervention.

The army has the guns, but do they have the soldiers?

I mean Egypt is very different from Libya or Syria.  What's emerged since Mubarak fell is that Egypt wasn't that Pharoahnic after all, as I say, if anything it was Mamluk state with a governing class and elite that was about protecting their own interests.  If that meant they had to remove the leader, so be it.  If they had to let him prosecuted, so be it.  If they had to let him be convicted, so be it.  But in that process Mubarak was convicted, as was the interior minister but the underlings weren't and no-one so far's been convicted of corruption which has the potential to undermine them all.  So far they've been accommodating with the Brotherhood, now they're in conflict with the best organising force in Egypt.

That governing class has nowhere near the personal charisma of a President or Supreme Brother or whatever Gadaffi was.  They also don't have the ethnic, religious or tribal ties to the troops that helped sustain the Syrian and Libyan governments while they repressed the protests.   I don't know that the troops will be willing to gun down protesters, if it comes to that, because I don't think they've got so many reasons to do so as they have in Libya, Syria or even Iran.  It also wouldn't amaze me if in barracks across Egypt right now there are discontented junior officers looking for a figurehead.

I think what's more likely is that they realise they've over-reached, rapidly get to some fallback position, reach a deal with the Brotherhood that will see the SCAF overtly move out of government while retaining their economic and behind-the-scenes power.  In short the typical result after a bold move by the Egyptian military

But of course you could be right.  As I say I think it's either over for the SCAF and this transition, or it's over for the revolution and at best you end up with a sort of managed democracy.

Arguably the uprising in Yemen beat an Arab military.  But Yemen's far too complex for that binary a reading I think

Having said all of that there is some yearning for the old regime - I think that's clear in Shafiq and Moussa's support (around 30%) - and the Brotherhood's to an extent the party of the middle class so they want order not this ongoing revolutionary chaos.  But I think this is significant enough an over-reach.

[grumbler]

I'm naturally skeptical of what being able to put large numbers in the street really signifies. The army has the guns, and I don't think through the arab spring anyone has yet successfully challenged an arab military and prevailed without western intervention.

This is a conscript army.  It is notoriously hard to get conscript armies to turn their guns on their brothers, sisters, mothers, fathers, and sons and daughters.  Ask the Shah of Iran... via medium.

The junta is finished in Egypt.  I wish there was a better alternative than the Islamists, but I think that this is another case where we just have to see if the people will turn out the Islamists as incompetent, rather than corrupt.

Edit: Beaten by Sheilbh

[alfred russel]

I'm naturally skeptical of what being able to put large numbers in the street really signifies. The army has the guns, and I don't think through the arab spring anyone has yet successfully challenged an arab military and prevailed without western intervention.

The army has the guns, but do they have the soldiers?

I mean Egypt is very different from Libya or Syria.  What's emerged since Mubarak fell is that Egypt wasn't that Pharoahnic after all, as I say, if anything it was Mamluk state with a governing class and elite that was about protecting their own interests.  If that meant they had to remove the leader, so be it.  If they had to let him prosecuted, so be it.  If they had to let him be convicted, so be it.  But in that process Mubarak was convicted, as was the interior minister but the underlings weren't and no-one so far's been convicted of corruption which has the potential to undermine them all.  So far they've been accommodating with the Brotherhood, now they're in conflict with the best organising force in Egypt.

That governing class has nowhere near the personal charisma of a President or Supreme Brother or whatever Gadaffi was.  They also don't have the ethnic, religious or tribal ties to the troops that helped sustain the Syrian and Libyan governments while they repressed the protests.   I don't know that the troops will be willing to gun down protesters, if it comes to that, because I don't think they've got so many reasons to do so as they have in Libya, Syria or even Iran.  It also wouldn't amaze me if in barracks across Egypt right now there are discontented junior officers looking for a figurehead.

I think what's more likely is that they realise they've over-reached, rapidly get to some fallback position, reach a deal with the Brotherhood that will see the SCAF overtly move out of government while retaining their economic and behind-the-scenes power.  In short the typical result after a bold move by the Egyptian military

But of course you could be right.  As I say I think it's either over for the SCAF and this transition, or it's over for the revolution and at best you end up with a sort of managed democracy.

Arguably the uprising in Yemen beat an Arab military.  But Yemen's far too complex for that binary a reading I think

Having said all of that there is some yearning for the old regime - I think that's clear in Shafiq and Moussa's support (around 30%) - and the Brotherhood's to an extent the party of the middle class so they want order not this ongoing revolutionary chaos.  But I think this is significant enough an over-reach.

All I know is what the Egyptians I know tell me, and as I stated they aren't representative. But the general point of view is that Mubarak was bad, but there is a pessimism that democracy in Egypt with the current level of education would lead to improvement.

There has been a lot of unpleasant chaos in the country after the revolution. My impression is that a strong force for order would be appreciated, and at least some parts of the country aren't all that keen to go to the mat for democracy anyway.

[Sheilbh]

They sound like Shafiq voters

And to be honest if they're in a position where they're travelling to the US with work, then chances are they did okay under the old regime.  But yeah, what they say, is representative of some sectors of Egyptian society that I've read about.  I think around 30% of the electorate voted for candidates who were very associated with the old regime and I'd say the order/revolution split was probably around 40/60.

[alfred russel]

They sound like Shafiq voters

And to be honest if they're in a position where they're travelling to the US with work, then chances are they did okay under the old regime.  But yeah, what they say, is representative of some sectors of Egyptian society that I've read about.  I think around 30% of the electorate voted for candidates who were very associated with the old regime and I'd say the order/revolution split was probably around 40/60.

If it is a 40/60 split and the army is in the 40, who wins if push comes to shove? I'd bet on the 40.

More aware Egyptians have to look around and see Syria and Libya and wonder if it is worth pushing.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah but I don't think it's clear the army is the 40.  The leadership are, but as G points out, many of the conscripts may have rather more in common with the revolution - whether the young Nasserist protestors or the Islamists who are very strong in working class areas of Egypt.

But even then I don't know that the army leadership would necessarily be willing to use force to end a revolution.  The US would strongly discourage it and I think G's comparison with the Shah is pretty right.  For all his reputation he was actually quite weak-willed and didn't use much force, arguably that was a large part of why he eventually fell (another was his own fear of the army which meant he deliberately made its leadership weak and divided - which is less of a problem in Egypt).

[jimmy olsen]

But even then I don't know that the army leadership would necessarily be willing to use force to end a revolution.  The US would strongly discourage it and I think G's comparison with the Shah is pretty right. For all his reputation he was actually quite weak-willed and didn't use much force, arguably that was a large part of why he eventually fell (another was his own fear of the army which meant he deliberately made its leadership weak and divided - which is less of a problem in Egypt).

I wouldn't call that an accurate representation of what happened.

[Sheilbh]

I wouldn't call that an accurate representation of what happened.

Why?

[jimmy olsen]

I wouldn't call that an accurate representation of what happened.

Why?

Because I totally misread that sentence. I was multitasking and thought G = Ghadaffi. 

[The Brain]

I like the people who compared the Arab Spring to 1989. I hate Eastern Europeans as much as the next guy but they're not fucking Arabs.

[Sheilbh]

According to some Egyptian news sources Egypt's Administrative Court on tuesday is going to look into whether to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood

[jimmy olsen]

According to some Egyptian news sources Egypt's Administrative Court on tuesday is going to look into whether to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood

Good luck with that.

Do they want the whole country to burn?

[The Minsky Moment]

Let me pose this question:
Did the Court get the decision right?

I don't know but it seems plausible.  The election law said that 1/3 of the seats had to be from people with no party affiliation, and there doesn't seem to be much dispute that the Brotherhood evaded that requirement.

[MadImmortalMan]

Let me pose this question:
Did the Court get the decision right?

I don't know but it seems plausible.  The election law said that 1/3 of the seats had to be from people with no party affiliation, and there doesn't seem to be much dispute that the Brotherhood evaded that requirement.

That's what I thought in my initial reply here. This seems to be one of the few correct decisions made by the New Egypt(R). At least on the surface.

[jimmy olsen]

Let me pose this question:
Did the Court get the decision right?

I don't know but it seems plausible.  The election law said that 1/3 of the seats had to be from people with no party affiliation, and there doesn't seem to be much dispute that the Brotherhood evaded that requirement.

It seems like an impossible provision. People who want to serve in parliament are by nature political, and will form and join factions.